A Perfect Evening

I had all of these big plans to start writing here regularly again, but I got sick instead. Shameful. In an attempt to jump-start my productivity, I camped out with a laptop in front of Saturday’s Patriots-Giants Quest for Perfection. Apparently, this game was a big deal…
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The Giants hit a deep one to Burress on the second play of the game—an excellent grab. I haven’t even had the chance to figure out which channel I want to watch this thing on. So many choices. Unfortunately, everybody is just using the NFL Network feed, meaning there is no escape from the horror that is Bryant Gumbel. It’s like listening to Kermet the Frog calling a game. Tom Coughlin just wasted a challenge on a pretty obvious incomplete pass, too. Nice work.

We really should have just gotten every network involved here. Think of the possibilities:
Discovery Channel:
Bear Grylls shows you how to survive if you ever find yourself being chased by the Giants’ pass rush. DISCLAIMER: Bear may in fact let his crew take the beating, then take credit for it on camera.
Lifetime:
Instead of showing the game, we get a made-for-TV movie about the trials of Bridget Moynahan’s struggles as a single mother.
MTV:
Pseudo-reality shows about people who kind of like football, and occasionally talk about it, but mostly just spend their time going to crappy clubs and doing embarrassing crap.
VH1:
The Top 50 Plays from tonight’s game, as commented upon by C-list comedians.

New York finishes off an impressive opening drive with a score; 7-0 G-Men. Perhaps we’ll have a game tonight—the Giants are pumped. The Patriots answer with a figgy, after Brady overthrows Moss in the end zone. This next possession for New York is a big one. If they can answer right back with another score, the pressure will be on New England in a hurry.

…or not. Three and out, and the Pats take over at midfield. And just when it looks like the Giants came up with a huge third down stop, a sketchy illegal contact call gives New England a fresh set of downs. That’s the sort of swing that can really change a game. Yikes. The Pats roll down the field, getting a first and goal from the six as the first quarter ticks down. Randy Moss takes a hell of a shot to the head, but returns after a short break…

…just in time to make a spectacular touchdown catch. That score breaks the single-season scoring record (sorry, 1998 Vikings), Brady ties Manning for the single-season passing touchdown record, and Moss ties Rice for the single-season receiving touchdown record. Plus, Moss gets a 15-yard unsportsmanlike, apparently because Kool-Ade Maroney decided to dance a bit. Alright, then. Quite the eventful play: 10-7 Pats.

Zounds! The Pats have to kick off from their own 15, and the Giants promptly take it to the house. This is going to be fun. Maybe I’ll actually have a reason to watch past halftime—unless, of course, Gumbel drives me to commit capital crimes. Don’t think it can’t happen. Another Gostkowski field goal leaves us at 14-13 Giants, by the way.

Not only are NBC and CBS using the NFLN game feed: they are apparently having to run the same commercials, too. That seems strange. I wonder how the revenue for that gets split up. Did Snickers just have to pay three different networks for that spot? If not, what are NBC and CBS getting out of this? More questions than answers, my friends.

The Giants seem to be taking the bend-don’t-break approach. A potential Brady-to-Moss score bounces off of a New York helmet, so the Pats settle for yet another field goal. 16-14 now, and I’ve discovered the Dave Chappelle Killing Them Softly special running on Comedy Central. Classic. But, I must maintain focus. New York really hasn’t been doing much, when you think about it. New England has wasted a few chances, and that kick return is keeping the Giants close. Easily the most one-sided 16-14 game I’ve seen.

…I should stop saying things like that. The Giants march straight down the field for the score, running a snazzy two-minute drill. 21-16 Giants heading to halftime, and at least I get a Gumbel break.

Back from the half, the Patriots are going to have to wake up soon. They open the half with a punt, and now the Giants are crossing into enemy territory. Brandon Jacobs is starting to rip off some big chunks of yardage on the ground, and New England is reeling.

Yes sir, real trouble now. A Burress touchdown, and we’re at 28-16. New England looks flat. Well, let me amend that: the New England defense looks flat. Tom Brady is having an excellent game, other than the whole lots-of-field-goals thing. The Pats are headed right down the field, inside the Giants 30. New York is getting a lot of pressure on Brady, but so far the Golden Boy has been able to stand in there.

Ski-U-Mah, kids. Maroney dances in from six yards out, leaving us at 28-23. This is going to come down to the New England defense: if they knock the lead out, the Pats have a good chance. But as long as Eli keeps the Giants moving down the field, Shula will be a happy man...

A change in tactics for New England on the next drive, as they really start to ramp up the pressure on Eli. We cross over into the fourth quarter: Pats ball at about the 25 after a Giants punt, still at 28-23.

The Giants hold this time, and force the punt. 13 minutes left, Pats down 5.

I assume NFLN is trying to make a positive impression on all of the people watching this feed who don’t get the channel. That’s why I’m confused by the existence of this strange mail-bag feature they keep running. Some guy named Dukes keeps popping up to answer viewer e-mail, but it’s the same ones every time. Just so we’re clear: Tom Brady is the MVP, and Bill Parcells knows something about football. We’ll be reminded of this another half-dozen times, I’m sure.

The Giants are not exactly milking this clock. A fumbled snap, a dropped pass, and now a pre-snap timeout. They have the chance to really put the screws to the Pats here, but aren’t taking advantage. Their third-down pass comes up short, so the punt goes back to New England.

Whoa boy. Brady had Moss wide open waaaaaaaaaay downfield, but the throw is short and Moss doesn’t manage to haul it in. Of course, on the next play, Brady drills Moss down the sidelines for the touchdown. Just an incredible sequence. Records fall, and Giants Stadium gets very quiet. Maroney runs in the conversion: 31-28 Pats, with 11 minutes left. I can’t get over those back-to-back Moss throws. Scary stuff. Can Eli respond? The Giants looked pretty bad on their last possession.

Somewhere on the kick return, there was a personal foul on the Giants that push them back around the 20. No one can quite figure out why, though. A quick holding penalty, too, on a nice first-down run. Are the Giants self-destructing?

The answer appears to be yes: Ellis Hobbs picks off Manning. He does a nice job getting both feet down, too. The Pats have a chance to work up some breathing room, and Brady is playing well.

On third and 11, Brady dumps one off to Kevin Faulk, and Faulk breaks a few tackles on his way to a first down. That’s a huuuuuuuge play, and New England is creeping inside the red zone now. Another third-and-long conversion to Welker, inside the 10 now with five minutes left. Welker has 11 catches tonight.

Allow me to gloat: Ski-U-Mah! Another Maroney touchdown. 38-28 now, and the Giants are searching for signs of life.

We reach the two-minute warning with the Giants inside the Pats 20. They’re really taking their sweet time, though. Very odd. They let a solid 30 seconds tick off between plays just now, bringing us all the way down to 1:18, second and goal from the 4. They eventually get the score to a wide-open Burress (the safety fell down in the end zone), so we’ve got a game again. 38-35, with 1:04 left. Cheers for the onside kick!

Pats recover. With that, it’s game over and 16-0. Now the pressure really starts. The Giants looked pretty good tonight, actually. It’ll be interesting to see if they carry that into the playoffs. That’s not really the story here, though…

GM 2 GM

A recent item in the Pioneer Press contained this tidbit:

"We've had a number of talks on a lot of different fronts," Smith said.

Those talks, which apparently never resumed Thursday because most teams cleared out early, will resume by phone, e-mail and text messages over the next few weeks.

Naturally, this got us very curious as to what exactly goes on when two GMs text each other. And, thanks to a loophole in FISA, Batgirl was able to obtain this super secret transcript of one such conversation between new Twins GM Bill Smith and the Red Sox's Theo Epstein, which she posts here for your edification.

[Need help? click here]

TE: yo homes its theO
BS: sup sk8er
TE: sup newbie
BS: did u c da rumor bout johan 2 oak 4 dan haren
TE: LOL!!! haren is so lamo
BS: sing out louise!
TE: so wuz da 411
BS: ?
TE: wuz it gunna take 2 get dis deal done
BS: ok we need 1 mlb reD playa & 2 A-level prospects & 1 nice (_(_)
TE: ?
BS: we lost torii if we lose johan we need a nice (_(_)
TE: how nice? not givin u Tek
BS: mayB not A-level (_(_) at least B+ (_(_)
TE: & whoz got B+-level (_(_) IYHO?
BS: ellsbury
TE: 2 things retardo montalban. thing 1: ells has A-level (_(_) ells is 6 tool playa
BS: ?
TE: (_(_) is 6th tool
BS: u a tool
TE: thing 2: u not gettin ells
BS: no deal den no johan no kkkkkkkkkkkkkk
TE: no ells
BS: gotta go txt cashman
TE: ok ok how bout coco coco has A+ (_(_)
BS: stop tryin 2 gimme coco
TE: come on johan 4 coco & his A++++++ (_(_)
BS: how bout johan 4 yr mum?
TE: lv my mum outta dis
BS: ^ yurs
TE: wuz wrong wit coco
BS: u <3 coco so bad
TE: byte me
BS: cocoz yr BF mmmm coco xxxxxx
TE: shuddup bzzzzch
BS: oh one sec BRB
TE: ok
BS: sorry terry ryan wuz here wants job back
TE: OMG! wud u say
BS: i sez screw u baldy da bilzzzzzerz runnin dis show
TE: no u didnt
BS: did 2
TE: OMG! LMFAO!
BS: gotta go project runwayz on
TE: ooooh will give you ells 4 heidi klum ;-)
BS: ha u wish! c u
TE: l8er t8er

False Starts Audit: Playoff Push Edition

Predictions are tough; that’s what I’m learning this year. A combination of hubris and boredom led me to forecast the 2007 NFL season a few months ago, if you recall. Now that we’re coming down the home stretch, I thought this was a good time to check in with those picks, to see how stupid I really am. Come with me. . .

AFC East:

The prediction: Patriots, Jets, Bills, Dolphins
Currently: Patriots, Bills, Jets, Dolphins

It didn’t take a genius to pick New England out of the East. I can’t really pat myself on the back there. The question now is whether or not 19-0 is attainable; that will come down to the Pats’ running game. They’ve really gotten away from running Maroney; if they’re just saving him for the playoffs, I think they’ll be fine. If there’s something else going on there, New England is quite vulnerable.

I mixed around the Jets and Bills, although I wasn’t very high on either of them. The Bills might sneak into one of the Wild Card spots, but overall I’ll take this set of picks.

AFC North:

The prediction: Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Browns
Currently: Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Ravens

This one. . . was not as pretty. Yeesh. I had some decent things to say about Cleveland, but thought things wouldn’t come together for them until at least 2008. I also didn’t see Derek Anderson coming at all. Whoops. I messed up on the Steelers as well; in the original preview, I said that the three top teams in this division were all good, but Ben Roethlisberger would hold them back. Wrong.

For some reason, I predicted that Steve McNair would regress, but the Ravens would finish second. Uh, dumb? And I really thought the Bengals would just score all over everybody. Rudi Johnson has been hurt, but still. This was an ugly division for me.

AFC South:

The Prediction: Jaguars, Colts, Titans, Texans
Currently: Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Texans

This one would have looked really good, if the Jags could have stolen Sunday’s game against Indy. D’oh. Of course, I was a major Byron Leftwich proponent, and we all know how that turned out (not well). Indy’s defense has not been the major weakness I thought it would be, and they’re sitting pretty at 10-2. Oh well. I was too harsh on the Texans, also. I ripped them hard, and they’ve actually been pretty decent. So, lesson learned.

AFC West:

The Prediction: Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, Chiefs
Currently: Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, Chiefs

Both of the bottom two teams here are pretty stinky overall. The Chiefs are especially bad; at least there’s a glimmer of a future in Oakland. Oh, and: surprise! Larry Johnson got hurt!

The Chargers are pretty junky. I blasted Norv Turner, and he’s largely lived up to his billing. I overestimated the Broncos, however. Especially on defense, where they look awful. This season has raised some questions re: Mike Shanahan’s general competency. Kick to Devin Hester much? Sigh. . . This one is probably over: the Broncos are reeling after a couple of ugly losses, so the Chargers should cruise to a nine- or ten-win season and the playoff spot.

NFC West:

The Prediction: 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals
Currently: Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers, Rams

Yee-ouch. That San Fran pick looks pretty nasty right now, doesn’t it. The lesson: never, ever think Alex Smith is competent. Frank Gore has not exactly been the difference-maker I said he’s be, either. The Seahawks are boring and mediocre, but that’s enough to get the job done in this horrendous division.

The Cardinals are making a little noise, especially after Sunday’s win against the Browns. Sitting at 6-6 now, they have a real shot at a Wild Card spot. We’ll see if Kurt Warner can keep all of his body parts attached. . .

NFC South:

The Prediction: Saints, Panthers, Bucs, Falcons
Currently: Bucs, Panthers, Saints, Falcons

Whither the Saints? They’re making me look pretty bad, here. I still think Tampa Bay sucks, but someone has to win this thing. The Saints occasionally show signs of life, then they do something stupid like losing to the Bucs on Sunday. That was a big loss, and probably put a fork in New Orleans. Carolina continues to be mediocre at best, and the Falcons are awful. At least I got a couple of these picks right.

NFC East:

The Prediction: Eagles, Redskins, Cowboys, Giants
Currently: Cowboys, Giants, Redskins, Eagles

I butchered this one about as badly as I did the AFC North. I ripped on Tony Romo, and declared Donovan McNabb would “play at a high level.” Oh. I pretty much screwed this whole thing up: the Giants haven’t collapsed (yet), the Redskins aren’t looking too hot for a Wild Card, the Cowboys are the class of the conference, and the Eagles suck. Just another day at the office.

NFC North:

The Prediction: Bears, Packers, Vikings, Lions
Currently: Packers, Lions, Vikings, Bears

This one should look a little better a few weeks from now. The Vikings and Bears should blow past Detroit; the Lions are going in the tank. I thought the Packers would be pretty good, but I didn’t expect 10-2. I thought Rex Grossman would blow Chicago’s season, but not until the playoffs. I thought Adrian Peterson would be the Purple Jesus, but the lack of a passing game would cost the Vikings. So, plenty of half-rights and almost-goods. Compared to some of my more brutal divisions, I won’t argue too much.

Super Bowl:

The Prediction: Patriots over Eagles
The New Prediction: Patriots over Packers

Ugh, that Eagles pick just keeps twisting the knife. I actually think that a Packers/Cowboys rematch could go to Green Bay; Favre put the Pack in an immediate hole on Thursday before getting hurt, and if a tidier first quarter that could have been a very different game. I really hope they meet in the playoffs, just to get another taste. And, like I said earlier, if the Pats can run the ball they’ll go to the Super Bowl. Homeboy.

Team Chemistry, Delmon Young Style: a reenactment

The whole town is ablaze with talk of the blockbuster Delmon Young trade, sometimes quite literally. In case you missed it, Batgirl at Gameday brings you a reenactment, using Legos.

As Star Tribune Twins reporters LaVelle E. Neal III and Joe Christensen head to work in the morning…


Singing together: "Hi ho, hi ho, it's off to work we go..."


"So, Joe C., what do you think of the big trade?"


"Oh, I don't know, III. I mean, Delmon Young's great, but I'm afraid without a charismatic veteran player to show him how things are done around here, he might go astray. He threw a bat at an ump! And our big hitters aren't exactly...well….I mean, I really wonder if our clubhouse is up to a guy like that."



"No, Joe, it's going to be all right. Just watch this footage I've collected on my PSYCHIC iPHONE! You'll see what I mean…"


Peering into LaVelle's PSYCHIC iPHONE, we see into the Twins clubhouse….

As the Carpenters' Greatest hits play, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Mauer gather for some quiet introspection, when their new teammate arrives.


"Hey, guys! I'm Delmon Young! I'm so happy to be a Twin!"


"Hey, Delmon!" said Cuddyer, "Nice uniform! We were just having a stoic-off. Do you want to join us?"
Morneau, singing quietly: Ahhhh,ahahaaaaaaa....Close to Youuuuuuuuu.
"Man," said Young, "you guys are dull. Come on, I'll show you how to have a good time!"



Outside the Dome...

Singing: Whistle While You Work...


"Hey, random umpire, come here, into the clubhouse, I want to show you something…"
"Oh, sure Delmon!" said the ump. "Let's go!"



"Okay, guys. Now, stand here, and I want you to throw your bats at him."
"What?" said all three at once.
"Hey!" said the ump.
"Shut up and take it like a man!" said Young.


"I don't know," says Mauer, quietly.
"That seems like a lot of energy," says Morneau, laconically.
"It's not nice to throw things," said Cuddyer, shyly.


"Man. You guys are sooooooo lame! Come on, give it a shot."


"Well….I guess we should make him feel welcome," said Mauer. "That's what my mom would say to do."


"I'm sorry, Mr. Umpire, Sir!" squeaked Mauer, as he threw.






"THAT WAS AWESOME," yelled Mauer, jumping up and down.


"I'VE NEVER FELT SO ALIVE," yelled Morneau, tearing off his shirt.


"AOOOOOOOOOOOW!" howled Cuddy, smearing warpaint all over his body.


"COME ON BOYS, LET'S TEAR THIS PLACE UP!"

Out on the streets...
















Back at the clubhouse...

"Phew, thanks Delmon Young! Now, boys, let's go play some baseball!"

And back in LaVelle's car...

"Wow," said Joe C.. "I see what you mean, III. Finally, we've gotten the immature uncontrollable hotheaded player we need!"
"You said it, Joe. You said it."

False Starts Kickoff Edition: NFC North

It’s a beautiful morning, isn’t it? Birds are chirping, the grass is green, and large men are bashing into each other while wearing plastic armor. After a Thursday-night taste, the NFL gets into the swing of things today with a full slate of action. Even better, I have managed to get the final division preview up in time! So as you settle in for a day on the couch, here’s the action-packed conclusion to the False Starts previews: the NFC North.

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The dictated-from-on-high order of finish for the 2007 NFC North:

4. Detroit Lions

How good is Calvin Johnson? Answering that question will very likely be the only reason to watch the 2007 Lions, because aside from their new first-rounder there isn’t much on this roster. A particularly horrendous offensive line, and sub-par defense, and a questionable running game all will do their part to ensure yet another crappy Lions season.

The Lions traded their best defensive player (cornerback Dre’ Bly) to Denver for two lesser players who will in theory fill a pair of needs. Running back Tatum Bell never fit into the Bronco running system, and Detroit is hoping the speedy Bell will be able to hold down the starting spot in Mike Martz’s offense. Bell has always seemed to struggle late in games (he isn’t a big man by any means) and has had fumble issues, but he’s also shown flashes of supreme talent. He’s the starter, at least until Kevin Jones’s foot heals.

George Foster, the other part of the Bly trade, slides into the right tackle spot. That at least shows that Lions management is aware of their horrible offensive line, but I’d be surprised if Foster is really the answer. He’s a decent enough player, but far from dominant. This line needs “dominant.” The rest of their starters range from mediocre (Jeff Backus) to overwhelmed (Dominic Raiola). The offensive line will hold back what could be a pretty nifty passing attack.

Roy Williams has comfortably established himself as an elite wideout, and Mike Furrey came out of nowhere last season to provide QB Jon Kitna with a respectable #2. When you throw Calvin Johnson into the mix, you’ve got a recipe for a damn fine passing game. Kitna played fairly well, all things considered, last season, and if he has a running game and time in the pocket he should be able to get the ball around to his weapons. That’s a pretty big “if”. . . .

You could do worse at defensive tackle than the trio of Shaun Rogers, Cory Redding, and Shaun Cody. They give Detroit a solid up-the-middle presence. Kalimba Edwards had a poor 2006 at end; he’ll be joined by ex-Buc DeWayne White. The Lions linebackers struggle with health (I’m looking at you, Boss Bailey), and they don’t really have a decent starting MLB. (Paris Lenin won that job in camp.) SS Kenoy Kennedy is a solid, but aging player, and he’s joined by rookie FS Gerald Alexander. Both safeties will be plenty busy cleaning up the mess left over by the linebacking and cornerback groups. With any luck, Matt Millen will finally lose his job this season, and the Lions will be able to start building a real team again.

3. Minnesota Vikings

The 2007 Minnesota Vikings would have no problem winning the 1948 NFL championship. Unfortunately, the modern game involves frequent use of this “forward pass” doohickey that all the kids love so much, and the Horns just don’t have the players.

The running game could be a lot of fun, unless opponents start creeping ten guys into the box (which, at this point, seems likely). The Purple Jesus is an immediate impact player, and Chester Taylor is no slouch himself. If the Vikings can find a good rhythm in their HB rotation, they have a potent combo.

Those ten-man fronts are going to make things tough, unfortunately. Maybe Tarvaris Jackson has a bright future, and maybe not, but in either case he’s not going to give you much this season. The learning curve will be steep, and the Vikings don’t really have anything behind him in case he falters. Until the Vikes prove otherwise, opponents will just stack the line of scrimmage and chuckle when a Jackson pass misses Troy Williamson by five yards (or hits Williamson in the mitts).

The run defense was, of course, outstanding last season. That shouldn’t change in 2007; the Brothers Williams at defensive tackle will see to that. Pat and Kevin give the Vikings an outstanding pair of run defenders up the middle, but unfortunately neither man really provides much in terms of a pass rush. That is going to have to change, because opponents spent most of 2006 ignoring the run and simply throwing over the top. According to Pro Football Prospectus, the 2006 Horns were with first losing team in the history of modern passing to have opponents throw at least 60% of the time. They faced 348 rushes and 628 passes, a 64% pass rate. With all of those attempts, the Vikings should have been able to mount a pass rush, but they couldn’t. (They finished 31^st in PFP’s Adjusted Sack Rate.)

Hopefully Chad Greenway will provide some help in pass coverage, because E.J. Henderson struggled there last year. Henderson gives you excellent run support, but with teams throwing as often as they did (and will) you need some coverage ability in your linebackers. Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin both played pretty well at corner last year, and the Vikings are deep at the safety position. They’ll need that pass defense to excel.

It won’t really matter, in the end. The NFL is a passing league, and the Vikings can’t do it.

2. Green Bay Packers

The Packers are sort of the anti-Lions, having built their team from the inside out. Instead of putting together a formidable collection of skill players only to have the entire effort submarined by substandard line play, the Packers have focused on putting together solid units on both the offensive and defensive fronts. That strategy will likely pay dividends, and if Chicago stumbles the Pack will be ready to step into the divisional penthouse.

The Packer offseason narrative has focused entirely on Brett Favre for the past few summers; whether or not he’ll be coming back for another season has blocked out pretty much any other story. Having Favre back for another year will help in 2007; Aaron Rogers remains entirely untested and unknown, so stability at the QB position will keep the Pack in the hunt. It’s the offensive line that will make Favre’s decision to return a wise one, though. Green Bay threw two rookie guards into the lineup in 2006, and the experience gained in that trial-by-fire will be invaluable this year. Both Jason Spitz and Daryn Colledge improved as the season went on, and they’ll be assets in 2007.

Scott Wells enters his second year as the starting center after growing into the role in 2006. Along with Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, Wells fills out a strong Green Bay offensive front that will keep Favre upright and looking downfield.

There are serious questions at the offensive skill positions, however. Donald Driver is 32 and could begin to decline at any moment, and Greg Jennings continues to deal with hamstring issues that slowed him late last year. The departure of Ahman Green has left a notable gap in the running game; Vernand Morency and rookie Brandon Jackson will be relied upon heavily to keep defenses honest.

Green Bay’s defense is strong and improving, led by a good set of linebackers. A.J. Hawk played well in his rookie year and looks every bit the stud the Packers were expecting when they took him in the first round, and Brady Poppinga had a good year at strong-side linebacker in 2006. Nick Barnett gives Green Bay good play in the middle, but all of the linebackers benefit from playing behind an excellent defensive line.

Aaron Kampman is an out-and-out stud, strong against both the run and the pass from the defensive end position. Cullen Jenkins replaced Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila towards the end of the 2006 season and showed flashes of potential; Jenkins should give the Packers a solid second DE. Ryan Pickett does a good job of clogging the middle from the DT spot. The secondary could pose some problems, as both Charles Woodson and Al Harris are getting up there in years. They played well in 2006, but Green Bay will have to get younger in the defensive backfield sooner rather than later.

1. Chicago Bears

This pick makes me nervous to say the least; I’m putting the Bears first mainly because I expect Rex Grossman’s 2007 collapse to happen in the playoffs, not the regular season.

The Bears defense should be about as good as ever, at least for one more season. They’re starting to get old and expensive, but for 2007 at least they’ll be mighty effective. Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher form one of the league’s best linebacking tandems, and the defensive line is deep and talented. The defensive backfield has a couple of good corners in Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman, but questions remain at safety. Mike Brown struggles to stay healthy, and Adam Archuleta had a terrible 2006 with Washington. The Bears will need him to turn things around.

Cedric Benson inherits the bulk of the carries from the halfback spot, now that Thomas Jones is a Jet. As long as he stays healthy, there’s no reason to think he won’t be effective. Bernard Berrian and Mushin Muhammad both give Grossman decent targets downfield, and the offensive line does a good job of containing the pressure.

To put it simply, this team will go as far as Rex Grossman can take him. I think that will be to a division title, but not much further than that. In fact, I think there’s a good chance he’ll have a really nice regular season; after all, he’s headed into just his second full year as a starter, so some improvement is to be expected. It’ll probably be enough to sucker everyone into thinking that “Rex has turned the corner.” Then come playoff time, Sexy Rexy will melt down, and the Bears will be left wondering what could have been with their own version of Trent Dilfer.

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So, to sum up the NFC:

East: Eagles
South: Saints
West: 49ers
North: Bears
Wild Card: Packers, Redskins
NFC Champ: Eagles
SUPER BOWL: Patriots 31, Eagles 17

And you can beat heavily on that. I guarantee it. Enjoy the season. . . .

False Starts: The NFC East

. . .and the beat goes on. Today we take a pass through the NFC East and all of the wonders therein. Unfortunately, this edition of FS is going to be slightly shorter than normal due to time constraints, but that shouldn’t detract from the overall Objective Experience. So let’s cut short the intro and get down to business. . . .

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Your certified-prescient picks in the 2007 AFC East:

4. New York Giants

This one could get very ugly very quickly. We all know that the New York media can create problems out of nothing, and they’re even better exacerbating small cracks in a team’s armor. When there are serious, deep-seeded issues, then it’s time to run for cover.

I’ve never placed a whole lot of stock in the whole idea of a “lame-duck” coach in the last year of his deal. I do think, however, when a team re-signs a coach for just one year, that could perhaps raise some issues. When that team’s former star running back claims that he retired because of said coach, you’re bordering on mutiny. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 New York Giants!

Tom Coughlin is toast. The players seem to despise him, and upper management seems to have little faith in his ability to win them back. A playoff run could save his job, but that isn’t in the cards and Coughlin will be in the unemployment line. The Tiki Barber retirement was a disaster; whatever your opinion of Barber and the way he handled things (and mine is, to say the least, negative), it highlights the issues in the Giants’ locker room.

At least Michael Strahan has decided to play. He “pondered retirement” for the entire pre-season, just now returning (to find a $200,000 fine waiting for him). He’ll team with Osi Umenyiora to form a potent pass rush duo, and middle linebacker Antonio Pierce gives New York a solid presence in the middle of the field. The rest of the linebacking corps is all-new, however. LaVar Arrington and Carlos Emmons are out, replaced by Kawika Mitchell and Mathias Kiwanuka. We’ll see if they can assimilate quickly enough. In the secondary, the Giants are counting heavily on rookie Aaron Ross to pick up the slack in a hurry.

Replacing Barber at running back poses a major issue. Brandon Jacobs moves from backup to starter, and Reuben Droughns joins the team as the primary back-up. Neither is in the same league as Tiki, so the passing game is going to have to step up. The offensive line, however, will likely prevent that. The Giants never replaced departed starting left tackle Luke Petitgout, and none of the other lineman are stars. Eli Manning has been criticized for his lack of accuracy, and while that’s undoubtedly on his shoulders the offensive line hasn’t really given him a chance to get comfortable in the pocket, either. Things aren’t going to go well in New York.

3. Dallas Cowboys

So, is Tony Romo a real NFL quarterback? I’m guessing no, which means the Cowboys finish third this year.

By mid-season, it was pretty much impossible to watch Ron Jaworski (who, by the way, is awesome) talk about anything except the bad habits of Tony Romo. The basic idea was that he had been getting stupidly lucky, making stupid plays that somehow worked out. Once teams got some film on him, they’d figure this out and force him back down to earth. That’s pretty much what happened: over his last five regular season games, he threw 8 picks to just 5 touchdowns, and the Cowboys lost to the Seahawks in the playoffs. That was the real Tony Romo, not the mid-season savior version.

It’s a shame, too, because the Cowboys have some pretty good offensive weapons. Terrell Owens drops a lot of passes but is still a force in the red zone, and Terry Glenn gives them a decent deep threat. The running back combo of Julius Jones and Marion Barber is distinctly above average, although Barber was the more effective runner this year.

Adding safety Ken Hamlin alongside Roy Williams helps to cover some of the latter’s deficiencies in pass coverage, and up front DeMarcus Ware can rush the passer with anyone. The Cowboys have a few other promising young linebackers (like Bobby Carpenter and Anthony Spencer), so we’ll see how new coach Wade Phillips implements his 3-4 scheme. The defensive line is ok-not-great, and the Cowboys have a pretty good pair of corners in Terrence Newman and Anthony Henry. Romo’s regression is going to doom the Cowboys, however.

2. Washington Redskins

The Redskins dodged a serious bullet when quarterback Jason Campbell avoided serious injury early in the preseason. He took an awful-looking hit to the knee and there were fears but Campbell could be lost for the season, but he ended up suffering only a bruise and will start in Week One. Injuries were the rule last season for the Skins, so maybe this bit of preseason good fortune signals a healthier 2007.

Santana Moss gives Campbell an excellent first option, and tight-end Chris Cooley works well as a bail-out receiver. The rest of the pass-catching ranks are a bit thin; Antoine Randel-El and Brandon Lloyd are acceptable, but not game-changers. Having a healthy Clinton Portis to couple with backup Ladell Betts in the backfield would help to the offense tremendously. Betts was good filling in last season, and if the Redskins can establish a reliable rotation behind Campbell they can take off a goodly amount of the pressure.

First-rounder LaRon Landry won the starting job at strong safety along-side Sean Taylor; if Landry lives up to expectations the Skins will have an excellent pair of starters. Like pretty much every other position on the roster, the safety spot is thin behind the starters, so when injuries strike (and they will somewhere if not at safety) Washington will be left scrambling to fill holes.

The Redskins added London Fletcher-Baker from Buffalo to upgrade their MLB spot, which should help a defense that was pretty awful last season once injuries struck. Washington will have to improve their pass-rush, regardless; end Andre Carter led the team with just 6 sacks last year.

1. Philadelphia Eagles

Offseason drama aside, the Eagles are one of the best two or three teams in the NFC and should emerge from the East with another division title. Drafting QB Kevin Kolb in the second round touched off a cavalcade of speculation as to Donovan McNabb’s future with the team, but in 2007 this is undoubtedly McNabb’s team and he will continue to play at a high level.

Brian Westbrook gives Philly one of the most versatile weapons in the NFL, giving them great production as both a runner and a receiver. He’s complimented by a competent set of receivers, although the departed Donte’ Stallworth does leave a hole across from Reggie Brown, the Eagles brought in Kevin Curtis from St. Louis. The Eagles have always liked to spread the field out using a bunch of receivers, so the loss of any single guy is rarely a major issue.

Defensively, Takeo Spikes takes over the weakside linebacker spot as Philly’s major offseason addition. Omar Gathier takes over for the released Jeremiah Trotter (who just signed with Tampa), and Chris Gocong won the third starting spot. End Jevon Kearse is returning from a broken leg, but Philly has plenty of depth in the defensive line in case Kearse proves unable to hold up over the entire season.

Basically, it seems pretty obvious that the Eagles are the class of the East, and I’d be shocked if they don’t win the division fairly easily.

Because of time issues, there’s a chance the NFC Central preview may not run until Friday. If that proves to be the case, then enjoy Thursday’s kickoff.

False Starts: The NFC South

First things first: there has, in fact, been a bit of a delay in the production of this last handful of previews. As the kids say, “my bad.” In any case, we have three days until kickoff and three divisions left to cover, so according to my math the timing checks out. We’re climbing back into the saddle with the NFC South, so let’s get this thing started. . .

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Your Bad Newz Kennel-approved picks for the 2007 NFC South:

4. Atlanta Falcons

I’ll leave the discussion of Michael Vick’s peculiar hobby to someone with a moral compass; for now, we’re talking football, so all that matters is that Vick won’t be playing in 2007 (or any time soon after that). We don’t really know how these Falcons operate without Vick on the field: he’s such a unique talent that the offense will have to be drastically restructured to work with Joey Harrington behind center. The chances are good that the Atlanta passing game will improve (probably in dramatic fashion), but the Falcons don’t have a good way to replace the lost production on the ground.

We’ve never seen the Atlanta receivers play with a competent pass-thrower. Whether or not Joey Harrington is that passer, we can’t be sure, but at least he’s a quarterback who looks first at the pass. Roddy White isn’t much, and Ashley Lelie left for San Francisco (he won’t be missed in the ATL). Michael Jenkins has occasionally shown flashes of ability, but tight-end Alge Crumpler always played the role of Vick’s favorite target. Joe Horn will be starting opposite Jenkins at wideout, and if nothing else he’ll provide an upgrade over White.

Harrington can’t be any worse of a thrower than Vick was, but he’s not running for 1,000 yards any time soon. There’s going to be serious strain on the Falcons’ halfbacks to provide a decent run game, especially if Harrington doesn’t perk up under a new system. Warrick Dunn remains the starter, but he’s well on the wrong side of 30 and will continue to decline. The most effective Atlanta runner (aside from Vick) was Jerious Norwood, the now-third-year back who averaged over 6 yards per carry. He’s going to have to pick up a major part of the slack if the Falcons are going to muster any kind of offense.

Then, of course, you have the new coach. Bobby Petrino enters the Atlanta job with a sterling offensive reputation, but he obviously spent the early part of his off-season designing a Vick-centric offense. He’s facing a stern test now, having to re-design the team’s system on the fly in order to tailor the playbook to Joey Harrington specifications. That’s a tall order for any coach, especially one in his first NFL head-coaching job.

The Atlanta defense has plenty of over-priced, over-the-hill talent (like Lawyer Milloy and Keith Brooking) and will struggle to stop even a mediocre offense. Playing in the same division as New Orleans will provide plenty of defensive embarrassment for the 2007 Falcons.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Instability at the top has a tendency to trickle down, and the Bucs are going to pay the price for not cleaning up their leadership issues over the offseason. Coach Jon Gruden’s chair is uncomfortably warm, and he (or someone above him) brought on a heaping helping of trouble by not cutting quarterback Chris Simms before the finalization of rosters.

Simms struggled early on last year, getting occasionally replaced by Bruce Gradkowski. He eventually sustained a nasty internal injury that led to an emergency splenectomy and a lost season. Gruden has never exactly shown undying faith in Simms even when he was healthy, and that trend continued with the signing of Jeff Garcia. Some liability questions lingered in regard to the outright release of Simms because of possible medical liability, but the writing was on the wall: Gruden didn’t bring in Garcia to linger on the sidelines. Now that the Bucs have broken camp with 4 (!) quarterbacks (Luke McCown joins Garcia, Simms, and Gradkowski), those quarterback issues seem all the more pressing.

Gruden is clearly fighting for his job in Tampa. Reports have suggested that Bucs ownership made the call to keep Simms, not Gruden and GM Bruce Allen. With an aging roster and slipping performance, Gruden is clearly making a last-ditch effort to save his job by playing Garcia, a short-term solution at best. Even if Garcia is relatively successful this season, his presence is setting the Bucs franchise significantly.

Garcia is 37 years old: he’s not going to be a part of any future Tampa Bay resurgence. Likewise, the defense is struggling to replace aging players like Shelton Quarles and Simeon Rice (both of whom were released over the offseason) and to compensate for the declining play of Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber. 2007 first-round pick Gaines Adams injects some fresh blood into the defensive line, but Tampa has little else in the way of young talent. The Bucs need to shift into rebuilding mode, which involves playing younger guys like Simms in order to evaluate their usefulness. Instead, Garcia will likely be finished after this year, Simms will be long-gone after being jerked around, and the Bucs will be left at square one. They don’t have much for young offensive talent: Michael Clayton has disappeared after a good rookie year, and Cadillac Williams doesn’t appear to be the franchise back the Bucs were looking for. It’s time to blow this team up.

2. Carolina Panthers

If the Panthers could play 16 games of 2-on-2 football, they’d probably run the table. Unfortunately for them, NFL rules require a team to field more than just Steve Smith and Julius Peppers; as such, Carolina is headed for an 8-8 record.

I’m feeling optimistic, so we’ll focus on the good parts first. Of course, Steve Smith is fantastic. He’s one of the premier wideouts in the league, and nobody is more dangerous in the open field. The Panthers feed him the ball as much as possible, as he’s effective on both short and long passes. Peppers is probably even better; he might be the best player in the entire NFL. He’s freaky-good in pass-rush situations, and his sick athleticism lets the Carolina staff drop him into pass coverage or do pretty much anything else they can think of with him. I think it’s safe to say he made a good call quitting basketball.

The rest of the defensive line is top-notch as well, helping to keep some double-teams off of Peppers while also taking advantage of the extra attention he demands. Kris Jenkins and Mike Rucker terrorize offensive lines with regularity, helping to hide the significantly weaker linebackers behind them.

Having MLB Dan Morgan back and healthy after some serious concussion issues would be a boon to the defense; he can cover a lot of holes as the Panthers try to replace Chris Draft (now with St. Louis). In the secondary, Chris Gamble gives Carolina one solid corner, but Ken Lucas (the other starting cornerback) is getting old fast and isn’t going to help to contain New Orleans.

The offense, past Smith, looks shaky at best. Quarterback Jake Delhomme has been OK since their Super Bowl run, but he’s far from elite. He missed three games in 2007 with an injured wrist, and any missed time this year means far more David Carr than is recommended by the FDA. The Panthers released Keyshawn Johnson over the offseason, and it remains to be seen how well the likes of Keary Colbert, Drew Carter, and rookie Dwayne Jarrett can replace his production. Johnson wasn’t an elite wideout, but he provided a decent compliment to Smith and the Panthers need someone to step up into that #2 spot.

DeShaun Foster is still listed as the starting tailback, but the Panthers spent a lot of time last season figuring out ways to get the ball to DeAngelo Williams. Expect that trend to continue, as Carolina continues to phase out Foster.

This Carolina squad is just overwhelmingly mediocre. That might be enough to sneak into a Wild-Card spot, but they have no business competing for a division crown.

1. New Orleans Saints

Sure, their defense can’t stop anyone (how much fun is this Thursday’s Saints/Colts game going to be?), but with this kind of offensive firepower and a weak division, the Saints should cruise to a playoff berth. They’ve got a tasty bunch of exciting young players and one of the best quarterbacks in football: we’ll be seeing plenty of 38-34 games in the Superdome this season.

The Saints should be able to mount a pretty decent pass-rush; ends Charles Grant and Will “Insert Your Own Fresh Prince Joke” Smith combined for 16.5 sacks in 2006. The middle of the defensive line isn’t nearly as strong, although the Saints imported nose tackle Kendrick Clancy from Arizona in an attempt to fix that problem. The New Orleans linebackers are likewise competent, but on the whole underwhelming. Scott Fujita has a good story and a decent game, but he’s no game changer. Neither is Eagle-reject Mark Simoneau.

Getting Fred Thomas out of the secondary instantly improves that unit: he was a total sieve back there, and replacing him with former Colt Jason David gives the Saints a decent second corner to play with Mike McKenzie. McKenzie isn’t any kind of true shutdown corner, but he gives them decent play regardless and one could do much worse.

The Saints aren’t looking to win any 13-10 games, of course. As long as the defense can keep the opposition under 40, New Orleans will always have a shot. Drew Brees and his shoulder are just fine, thank you very much, and he gives the Saints a cornerstone at the most important position on the field. He’ll spend plenty of time getting the ball to Marques Colston, who had a fantastic rookie year and has firmly established himself as the top New Orleans wideout.

The Saints have also put together one of the most luscious running-back tandems in the NFL. Reggie Bush can do pretty much anything, and with a year under his belt he’s going to be a scary weapon. He looked increasingly comfortable later in the 2006 season, even getting some interior carries from time to time, and he spends plenty of time split out wide. Deuce McAllister provides the thunder up the middle, and he should be even better two years removed from his knee injury. All in all, the offense will be more than enough for the Saints to emerge from this weakened division.

Tomorrow: the NFC East.

False Starts: The NFC West

We turn our attention today to the NFC, starting out West. The conference as a whole is noticeably weaker than the AFC, but with that relative weakness comes a significantly more wide-open field; it’s fairly easy to identify the best half-dozen or so AFC teams, but that’s not true in the FOX Conference. Let’s get right to it, so we can all snicker at Sharkey in December for picking the 49ers. . . .

A little birdie told me that Football Outsiders and their book are pretty awesome.

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Your completely objective picks for the 2007 NFC West:

4. Arizona Cardinals

This whole division is pretty bad; trying to pick the West basically comes down to: Whose glaring deficiency is the least crippling?

The Cardinals appear to be headed in the right direction, having fired Denny Green over the offseason. Green’s merits as a coach in general are debatable, but he was clearly not in a good position in Arizona. He does not appear to be well-suited for running a reclamation project; see, for example, his senseless juggling of Josh McCown and Shaun King two years ago. I get the sense that Green expects to win instantly, and while that may be a commendable character trait, it doesn’t fit in Arizona.

To replace Green, the Cardinals imported a big chunk of Bill Cowher’s former Steelers staff, led by new head coach Ken Wisenhunt. (O-Line coach Russ Grimm and special-teams coach Kevin Spencer also left Pittsburgh to join the Arizona staff.) I suspect this will end up a wise move for the franchise; they desperately need some stability at the top, and few did it better than the Steelers.

All of the big names reside on offense. Matt Leinart enters his second year as the unquestioned starter, looking to build off of a fairly successful introduction to the pro game. There’s no reason to suspect he that he won’t improve in 2007, although he’ll probably endure his share of growing pains this year as well. A lot of his success or failure will be based on how much the offensive line improves under Grimm. You can ask Edgerrin James about last year’s offensive line; it was pretty ugly for most of the season (although it seemed to improve later in the season, judging by James’ rushing totals: all three of James’ 100-yard games came over the last third of the season). The Cardinals added Penn State tackle Levi Brown in the first round, and he has taken over the starting right tackle (remember: Leinart is a lefty, making the RT spot the more important one).

James had a terrible year last year, and whether or not that was due to aging or the line play will be important this year: having a decent running game to take the pressure off of the passing game would be a boon. The wideouts (Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald) are great, so if James and the running game can keep defenses honest, the air attack could thrive.

In the end, I just think the Cardinals are at least a year away. The defense outside of safety Adrian Wilson has plenty of holes, and the team needs to give the new staff time to mesh with the young players. We’ll see where things stand next summer.

3. St. Louis Rams

The Rams have a more established core than Arizona, which leads to their higher ranking here. They won’t be headed anywhere fast if they don’t shore up the defense in a hurry, though: while the Cardinals defense is below average, the Rams’ is cover-your-eyes awful.

The St. Louis defense was especially bad against the run, and based on their offseason moves they know it. They signed linebacker Chris Draft, known for his solid play against the run, from Carolina in free agency, then used their first-round pick on Nebraska defensive lineman Adam Carriker. It’s going to take more than two players to solidify that defense, but at least Draft and Carriker point St. Louis in the right direction.

The Rams can still score, but it’s not exactly the Greatest Show on Turf anymore. The Rams made Steven Jackson the focal point of their offense last year, and it paid off with a tidy little 2,334-total-yards season.

The St. Louis usage of Jackson is basically the Bizarro-Kansas City. Instead of plowing their star running back straight into the line 400 times, the Rams gave Jackson a relatively modest 346 carries in 2006. The rest of the touches came from the passing game: Jackson caught 90 balls for 806 yards and three scores to go along with his running numbers. All research done into running-back usage points to the conclusion that catches don’t really make much difference in terms of added injury risk, but an excessive number of carries does. This makes intuitive sense, of course: getting your back out away from the 350-pound monsters and into the terrain ruled my cornerbacks cuts down on the wear and tear. St. Louis understands this.

The passing game is still pretty decent, too. Marc Bulger is one of the top year-in, year-out QBs in football, and he has a nice new long-term contract. Bulger had what was probably his finest season last year, and while he might regress a bit there’s no reason to expect too dramatic a fall. Torry Holt remains an elite receiver, and Isaac Bruce had a surprisingly good year in 2006 as well. The Rams also added Randy McMichael and Drew Bennett in the off-season to compliment their main two wideouts.

It’s too bad that the defense is as crummy as it is, but at the very least the Rams will be worth watching to see how many linebackers Jackson can plow over.

2. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have missed their chance. They may have managed to buck recent history by making the playoffs the year after losing the Super Bowl, but that was just the start of their decline. There’s just not really that much left on this squad that isn’t approaching (or already past) its expiration date, so the question will soon become whether or not Mike Holmgren is willing to stick around through a rebuilding phase.

Shaun Alexander had essentially a lost season in 2006, battling foot injuries and never really getting healthy. His 2005 season teetered right on the brink of excessive carries (he got the ball 370 times), and keeping true to history injuries struck the following season. Alexander turns 30 this year (always a nasty age for running backs), and 30-year-old running backs with foot problems don’t tend to age very well. Maurice Morris wasn’t very effective while Alexander was out and Seattle doesn’t have anyone waiting in the wings; it might be time to start planning for life after #37.

QB Matt Hasselbeck dealt with his own injury problems last year, and while he’s probably not looking at the kind of imminent decline that Alexander is facing, he’s not going to be getting a lot of help from the rest of the offense. Without guard Steve Hutchinson, the offensive line took a noticeable dive. Glancing at Football Outsiders’ offensive line stats, Seattle fell from 6^th to 30^th in Adjusted Line Yards, and from 13^th to 26^th in Adjusted Sack Rate. Nagging injuries to left tackle Walter Jones only compounded the line issues, and at 33 years old Jones too is likely on the downside of his career.

Hasslebeck’s receiving corps is looking thin as well. Seattle traded long-time Seahawk Darrell Jackson to the 49ers, and added in his place. . .Marcus Pollard? I guess so. Seattle is betting heavily on Deion Branch’s ability to settle in with a full training camp, because there isn’t much else there. They’ll likely try to re-insert Nate Burleson at WR, and D.J. Hackett is currently listed as the #2. Hackett had a pretty decent season last year, so we’ll see if he’s capable of holding down a starting spot.

The Seahawks are undergoing a major overhaul in the secondary as well. Free safety Ken Hamlin signed in Dallas, and strong-sider Michael Boulware has been benched. Seattle brought in Deon Grant and Brian Russell to fill the safety spots. Both are likely to help solidify the pass defense, which will be important after corner Marcus Trufant’s disappointing 2006. Seattle has a fairly solid front line, although the continued absence of DT Marcus Tubbs after microfracture surgery weakens the trenches significantly. Linebacker Lofa Tatupu gives the Seahawks an anchor in the middle, and Julian Peterson played well last year (although Leroy Hill, by all accounts, struggled mightily in pass coverage). The defense looks pretty average (maybe a bit better, depending on the safety transition), but I just don’t see where the points are going to come from. The Seahawks will likely slide even further down the divisional ranks in the future, but they’ve already been passed by at least one team.

1. San Francisco 49ers

If Seattle is on the downward slope, then the 49ers are ready to jump into the divisional penthouse. They’re a testament to how quickly you can turn an NFL team around: a few good staffing hires, a couple of good drafts, and the occasional complementary free-agent signing, and you’re right back in the thick of things. (At least, you are in the NFC West.)

Frank Gore had the obviously great season in 2006, and it looks like he’s just beginning a run as one of the top handful of running backs in all of football. He totaled his 1696 yards on just 312 carries, and like St. Louis the 49ers appear to understand the importance of keeping your running back fresh. Gore added 61 catches, which led the team last year. He’s not likely to repeat that last feat, however—a couple of new additions and an important year of experience should see to that.

As I mentioned in the Seattle section, Darrell Jackson is now a 49er. Granted, he’s had some trouble with dropped passes since. . .well, forever, but he’s an obvious upgrade over the likes to Antonio Bryant. San Francisco also brought in Ashley Lelie, hoping they can capitalize on some of his heretofore untapped potential. He’s shown flashes of high-level talent, but has never been really able to put the whole package together. He’ll get a shot now.

Perhaps the biggest added weapon is simply a healthy and experienced Vernon Davis. Anyone who’s seen an Under Armour ad knows how freaky-built that guy is; he’s like an evolutionary Antonio Gates or something. He’s huge, he’s fast, he’s strong, and he’ll be dominating whoever tries to cover him in the very near future.

It’s going to be on Alex Smith to use these weapons effectively, and I like his chances of doing so. His hands aren’t getting any bigger and he’ll probably always have fumble issues because of it, but he took a noticeable step forward last year in his second season. He’s not an elite talent, but he’s more than capable of holding down an NFL starting job for a long time. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner may have left, but the 9ers wisely promoted from within to fill his vacancy, and Smith will not have to adjust to a new system.

On defense, the 49ers made a huge splash by signing corner Nate Clements from Buffalo to the richest defensive contract in history. He’ll allow the other major defensive signing, safety Michael Lewis, to play up in run support where he belongs, and along with Pro Bowl corner Walt Harris the three form a pretty fearsome defensive backfield. Coach Mike Nolan also feels that he has the personnel in place to run his preferred 3-4 full time this season, having added rookie LB Patrick Willis and free-agent Tully Banta-Cain to go with Manny Lawson. One curious thing on the depth chart, at least right now: Brandon Moore, who according to Pro Football Prospectus “had a superlative season in 2006” appears to have lost his starting job. I haven’t been able to find any reason for this; maybe Derek Smith has just outplayed him. In any case, San Francisco is nicely positioned to win the division not just this year, but for many.

Tomorrow: the NFC South. Click here to view the past editions of False Starts.

The Northwoods Beat: From the Lowest of Lows...

I'm tardy. I know. The Northwoods League baseball season officially came to an end on Friday night, August 17th. I had every intention of jumping online and giving everyone the update the next day...but I just couldn't. Now, I realize I should do it before it's too late but by writing this blog entry, I'm admitting that my season is gone. Don't get me wrong. I'm a major league fan as well and I love seeing the Twins put together a late season push. But Northwoods baseball is summer.

To be honest, it looked like the playoff scenario might be a bit lopsided. The two first half division winners finished the second half of the season in 4th (Green Bay) and 7th (St. Cloud) in their respective divisions. How could they hold up against two teams who were still rolling? The St. Cloud River Bats were not only going into the playoffs with a 14-18 second half record, they were still in a state of shock. On August 3rd, late season addition, pitcher Ritchie Gargel was found badly injured after a swimming accident. Later that week, the lefty from Temple University passed away.

Despite the Gargel tragedy, St. Cloud rolled over Duluth in their divisional match up, winning the best of 3 game set in just 2 games. Eau Claire won a see-saw battle with Green Bay in the third game. The final series was a showdown between the upstart Eau Claire Express, looking for their first championship in only their 3rd season in existence and the St. Cloud River Bats.

It only took two games. St. Cloud, perhaps rallying together after the death of Gargel, eliminated Eau Claire and claimed their third Northwoods League Championship. From a great first half to a shaky second half and the unfortunate tragedy of Richie Gargel...to top of the heap. My hat's off to St. Cloud and their field manager, Tony Arnerich.

Another season down, but it doesn't really end there. Now it's time to start recruiting for next year!

False Starts: The AFC West

I might as well get this out of the way right now: I’m an unabashed Denver Broncos partisan. It’s probably inevitable that this allegiance will in some way color the following AFC West preview; in any case, I’ll do my best to present the facts as I see them. Without further ado, let’s get this week started. . . .

Football Outsiders and their book are so invaluable, I’d be wasting words trying to describe them.

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The completely unbiased order of finish in the 2007 AFC West:

4. Kansas City Chiefs

I’ll be honest—it’s a coin-flip here between the Chiefs and Raiders. They’re both really terrible, but head coach Herm Edwards puts the Chiefs over the top (under the bottom?). He’s fun to listen to in post-game press conferences, but he’s even more of a delight to have coaching a division rival.

Herm is a notoriously poor in-game coach, especially when it comes to clock management. Recall, for example, when the Jets reassigned an assistant coach specifically to begin handling time-related issues at the end of halves. This fact boggled my mind three years ago, and continues to: how difficult can clock management really be? It’s one of the most basic logical puzzles you can imagine: you have a set play clock, a set number of downs, a set number of game clock left, specific ways to stop or let the clock run. . .yeesh. We’re just going to move on.

Edwards also appears to be a big fan of the “running-back-as-battering-ram” strategy. That’s how he used Curtis Martin, and that’s how he used Larry Johnson last year. Everyone is talking about it anyway, but it’s worth emphasizing: Johnson shattered the NFL’s single-season record for carries with 416. I’m a little surprised that Johnson managed to make it through the entire offseason without having a leg fall off in the middle of the supermarket or something. Johnson is finally in camp after wisely holding out for a big guaranteed contract; even he seems to realize that his time as a healthy human is soon coming to an end under Herm.

The decline of the Chiefs offensive line isn’t doing Johnson any favors, either. Willie Roaf and Will Shields are gone into retirement, and what remains upfront is underwhelming at best. Johnson doesn’t get a lot of wide-open, contact-free carries back there.

Veteran Damon Huard has won the starting QB spot over youngster Brodie Croyle. Huard was relatively good replacing Trent Green last year after the latter’s nasty concussion, but Huard is the complete opposite of a long-term solution. Maybe once it becomes obvious to everyone (even Herm) that the 2007 Chiefs are a lost cause, they will take an extended look at Croyle to see if he can be counted on in the future.

There isn’t much going on defensively, either. Their cornerbacks (Ty Law and Patrick Surtain) are big names that passed their primes years ago. Derrick Johnson is a pretty good young linebacker, but the Chiefs completely whiffed on the Kendrell Bell signing. The Colts exposed Kansas City in last year’s playoffs, and things are going to get worse before they get better.

3. Oakland Raiders

I have two conflicting schools of thought regarding new Raiders coach Lane Kiffin. Part of me thinks that since he interviewed for the Gophers head-coaching slot and couldn’t even get that, he must be a terrible coach. The other part of me thinks that if Minnesota AD Joel Maturi passed over Kiffin, Lane must be the modern-day Vince Lombardi. In any case, he has to be an upgrade over the Art Schell Experience the Raiders were enjoying last season.

One of the biggest changes in Raiderland comes at QB: enter Daunte Culpepper! This is a pretty major muddy-waters situation: I have no idea how much of Daunte’s horrific 2006 to attribute to his knee injury, and how much to blame on his general suckiness. I tend to think he will have a decent season in 2007, especially if wide receiver Jerry Porter finds out that Schell is gone and decides to play again. Porter caught exactly one ball last year and spent most of the season possibly rooting against the Raiders from the sidelines. (Porter denied doing so, but I wouldn’t hold it against him.) If Daunte spends the season chucking long-balls to Porter down the sidelines, the Raiders may even occasionally 20 points. (The 2006 Raiders cracked the 20-point barrier four times, and were shut out three times.)

We’ll get a good look at the health of Culpepper’s knee, because the Oakland offensive line is pretty bad. Bringing Cooper Carlisle over from Denver should help, but the fact that former second-overall pick Robert Gallery has been a bust at left tackle will leave Daunte looking over his shoulder.

It’s probably for the best that this year’s top pick, QB JaMarcus Russell, is still holding out. Taking a year to learn the NFL ropes will help Russell develop, and not having to play behind this year’s offensive line will help even more. Russell is far from a sure thing in the best of situations, so Kiffin’s future probably depends on whether or not Russell turns into the star Oakland wants him to be.

The defense is pretty good, as it was last year. Michael Huff had a great rookie year at safety, and the rest of the secondary is filled out with promising young players like Nnamdi Asomugha. (I also just really wanted to type out that name in order to torture my spell-check.) Derrick Burgess has been quite effective at defensive end in his last two seasons with Oakland. Warren Sapp was surprisingly decent last year. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is one of the very best in the league. At the very least, the defense should keep things from getting too out of hand.

Oakland’s long-term future is tied to the success or failure of Russell, and we won’t likely see anything from him at all this year. Any positive developments that may arise will come from Kiffin, if he shows he can handle the job. Past that, the Raiders are just waiting for next year.

2. San Diego Chargers

I make this assertion not as a Broncos fan. Instead, I am saying that the Chargers and their 14-2 record will miss the playoffs in a loaded AFC thanks to one Norv Turner: one of the absolute worst head coaches in football.

San Diego is outright loaded. We all know Tomlinson, who does pretty much whatever he wants and comfortably holds the title of World’s Best Running Back (2007 Edition). Tight end Antonio Gates is nothing short of a freak, and can abuse any linebacker who dares to cover him downfield. (The Broncos often assign Champ Bailey to cover Gates, and Bailey is approximately four feet shorter.)

Phillip Rivers had a pretty good year in his first as Chargers starting quarterback, and there is no reason to think he will not continue to improve in 2007. He will be without #1 wideout Eric Parker for at least the first few weeks of the season (Parker had surgery on an injured toe), but so much of the San Diego passing game revolves around Gates and Tomlinson anyway that Rivers should be able to compensate for Parker’s absence.

The Chargers defense is talented as well. Few teams can match the defensive line of Jamal Williams, Igor Olshansky, and Other Luis Castillo. Antonio Cromarte and Quentin Jammer give San Diego a good young pair of corners. Shawne Merriman is possibly the best defensive player on the NFL, depending on how you feel about his failed steroid test. By the way, the fact that I just typed that sentence speaks to the absurd double standards regarding steroids in football and baseball, but that discussion is for another time.

So how bad does Norv Turner have to be to overcome all of this talent? Really, really bad: but he’s up to the task. I was curious when the Chargers fired Marty Schottenheimer; Marty is a pretty good coach, but the Chargers could conceivably upgrade with the right hire. Imagine my joy, then, when they introduced Norv Turner and his 58-82 career record!

I knew Turner was a bad coach, but I was still a little stunned by the Chargers chapter of Pro Football Prospectus. The mark of any good statistical analysis is getting the really obvious stuff right, and PFP destroys Turner in a way that must really be read; I can’t do it justice here. A few choice nuggets include:
--Turner is one of only 8 coaches to ever have a losing record while still underperforming his projected Pythagorean record.
--Turner is the 9^th-worst coach ever at holding 4^th-quarter leads.
--Did I mention his career record is 58-82?

The Chargers have the talent to compete for Super Bowls, but Norv Turner will cost the team a playoff spot.

1. Denver Broncos

Saying Mike Shanahan is the best coach in the division isn’t saying much, but it’s so not close that it bears mentioning. While Shanahan definitely deserves some of the blame for Denver’s post-Elway playoff struggles, he remains one of the best coaches in football. (He’s the only one who attempts to replicate his team color with his skin tone; the mile-high radiation has cooked Shanny to a wonderful shade of orange.)

The Denver defense will be one of the league’s best in defending the pass. The death of corner Darrent Williams was as senseless as it was jarring, but the off-season addition of Dre’ Bly for a pair of expendable players (the mis-cast Tatum Bell and RT George Foster) gives the Broncos one of the strongest corner tandems in all of football. Champ Bailey is simply the best corner in the NFL, and adding Bly on the other side will free the aging John Lynch to step further up into run coverage, where he still excels.

The Broncos cut ties with MLB Al Wilson, after age and a neck injury slowed the long-time Bronco. Wilson will be missed, but DJ Williams is sliding over from strong-side linebacker to fill Wilson’s spot. Whether Nate Webster can competently fill Williams’s old spot will be an important development for the Broncos.

Starting defensive end Ebenezer Ekuban ruptured his Achilles tendon in the pre-season and is done for the year; this puts significant pressure on this year’s 1^st round pick Jarvis Moss. Second-year pass-rush specialist Elvis Dumervil will also need to step up his play in Ekuban’s absence.

Travis Henry takes over at running back and should be competent (as long as a minor pre-season knee injury heals as expected). At the very least, we know that having 9 (!) child-support payments to make should keep Henry sufficiently motivated. (Thanks to ProFootballTalk.com for the link.)

The Broncos’ season comes down to the play of second-year QB Jay Cutler. Cutler had his good and bad moments last year after replacing Jake Plummer, and having Cutler settle in as a solid starter this year would go a long way towards returning the Broncos to the playoffs. The Broncos added Brandon Stokley in the offseason to help soften the decline of Rod Smith (who will likely spend the year on the physically-unable-to-perform list), and Brandon Marshall will also have to improve.

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The final AFC Summary:

East: Patriots
North: Bengals
South: Jaguars
West: Broncos
Wild Card: Ravens, Colts
AFC Champion: Patriots

Come back tomorrow as we begin the NFC side of things. You can catch up on the complete AFC preview here.

False Starts: The AFC South

Ah, Friday. What better way to spend it than with the Champs and their foils in the AFC South? Out NFL preview roles on, as I tackle such questions as: Can the Colts repeat? Is Vince Young the Truth? And will the Jags finally stop Choppin’ Wood? We’ve got the answers. . . .

And, of course, credit to the Football Outsiders and their annual for making so much information so easily available. W00t.

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Making it rain with the 2007 AFC South:

4. Houston Texans

Hide the women and children: it’s your 2007 Houston Texans. They’re lucky that torture is legal now; otherwise, I’m not sure anyone would be able to broadcast their games.

The Texans are an abject lesson in the importance of the quarterback position and what happens when you get it dreadfully wrong. David Carr was the franchise’s first overall pick, and five years later the team is back where it started. Carr is out (just one year after the team decided to exercise an $8 million option on him) and former Falcons backup Matt Schaub slots in behind center.

It’s impossible to say how Carr might have turned out had he played with a decent offensive line, but he still held onto the ball way too long and brought a lot of the sacks he took on himself. We’ll see how a new quarterback fairs behind that line and whether or not Schaub proves more able to get rid of the ball in time.

Even if Schaub does get the ball out before getting hammered by the pass rush, he doesn’t have a lot to work with at the skill positions. Lead wideout Andre Johnson is an excellent player, but the rest of the offense is barren. The Texans signed Keenan McCardell to replace Eric Moulds as the past-his-prime second receiver, and there is little in the way of young talent elsewhere among the wideouts. Tight end Jeb Putzier has been a disappointment since coming over from Denver; former Bronco offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak had little use for him last year.

The Texans are compounding the problem with their choice of running back. Instead of looking for a young back who can grow along with the team, Houston brought in former Packer Ahman Green. It’s a totally pointless move: Green is far past his prime and will in no way be a part of any future Texans success, so why waste everyone’s time?

The defense actually has some young talent; if the Texans approach respectability any time soon, it will be because of the development on that side of the ball. Last year’s #1 overall pick, Mario Williams, didn’t rack up the impressive sack totals one expects from an end, but by all accounts he played very well in run coverage. Even better was second-round pick (and defensive Rookie of the Year) DeMeco Ryans, the linebacker. Those two players, along with corner Dunta Robinson, give the Texans three top-notch young defensive players. 2007 first round pick Amobi Okoye, a defensive tackle, has apparently not looked good at all in training camp, but if he fulfills any of his potential, he’ll add to that good young base. In any case, the stadium is still the best thing the Texans have going for them.

3. Tennessee Titans

Perhaps you’ve heard: Vince Young isn’t half bad. I know it’s a pretty well-kept secret, but that’s the kind of crack investigative reporting that you can expect from someone with my credentials. It probably won’t matter how good Young is, unfortunately, because he’s surrounded by offensive desolation.

I dare you to name a single Titans receiver. Go ahead, give it a shot. Nope, sorry: Drew Bennett signed with the Rams. Brandon Jones is the returning receiving yardage leader, having totaled all of 384 yards last season. That’s some real quality, folks. Young is probably better off utilizing the rarely-seen Bugs Bunny approach of throwing passes to himself.

The running game is very much up in the air as well. Last year’s featured back, Travis Henry, is now with the Broncos; he’s no world-beater, but Henry is a fairly competent runner and a team could do much worse. (See: Texans.) Perennial under-achiever Chris Brown and occasional under-achiever LenDale White will have to shoulder whatever rushing load isn’t picked up by Vince Young scrambles.

The defense could have been pretty decent, but the year-long suspension of cornerback Adam Jones seriously complicates things. Jones is (was?) one of the best young corners in all of football and can cover up a lot of defensive shortcomings, but he also seems to be unable to stay off of the police blotter. His Tennessee career is likely over; he’s too good for someone else not to give him a look next year, but that won’t do the Titans any good.

Kyle Vanden Bosch is a quality defensive end, but the rest of the Tennessee D-line is so terrible that Vanden Bosch sees never-ending double-teams. Linebacker Keith Bulluck is even better, but two players do not a defense make. There is still a lot of building to do, especially with the new hole at cornerback.

Last year’s Titans squad had a serious lightning-in-a-bottle feel to them, ripping off six straight wins before their week-17 pasting at the hands of New England. All but one of those wins came by one touchdown or less (the exception being a 31-13 win over the Eagles in week 11). The Titans won’t fare so well in close games this time around. This year isn’t about immediate success: the continued development of Vince Young at quarterback will be what defines the 2007 season in Tennessee.

2. Indianapolis Colts

The 2006-7 Colts were the NFL’s answer to the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. They seemed pretty pedestrian in the regular season, then suddenly tore up the playoffs and took home the title. The Colts defense absolutely sucked in the regular season, then shut down the Chiefs and Ravens in the playoffs. After a squeaker with the Patriots, Rex Grossman did the rest and Peyton Manning finally had his ring.

Pro Football Prospectus 2007 gives a good account of just how bad the Indy D was in the regular season. My two favorite stats are:
--The Colts gave up 360 points, making them only the second Super Bowl champ to allow more than 310
--The 5.33 yards per carry the Colts surrendered was the worst number any team in the NFL has allowed since the 1961 Vikings. It was also, needless to say, the worst ever by a Super Bowl winner. Only one other champ allowed worse than 4.4 per carry (Denver, 1997: 4.73).
The Colts, to put it simply, break the system.

How one predicts the Colts comes down to: do you believe in the regular-season defense, or the playoff defense? I’ll take the larger sample size, thank you very much. There has been quite a bit of defensive turnover, too, which further complicates things: they’ve lost starters at linebacker, safety, and both cornerback spots. Maybe that will actually improve things; I have no idea.

I’m betting on the horrible Colts defense, but I still think they are going to sneak into the second AFC wild-card spot. After all, the best quarterback on the planet has to count for something, right? I just can’t imagine Peyton Manning not throwing the Colts into the playoffs; it wouldn’t be the same without them. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne outclass even Cincinnati’s duo of stud receivers, and tight-end Dallas Clark is among the very best at his position. The offensive line gives Manning the time he needs to get the ball out to those weapons, but Manning is so good at getting rid of the ball ahead of the pass rush that it doesn’t take much.

Running back depth is something to watch: the Colts let Dominic Rhodes walk in the offseason, giving Joseph Addai the job full-time. That’s a good move (Addai is by far the better player), but the Colts are now very thin at the position and an injury to Addai could be a real problem. Even with a scrub at running back, Manning can probably get the Colts the 30 points they’ll need to compete, but it’ll be that much harder.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Gulp. This one makes me nervous.

First, the reasons why I think the Jags are going to beat out the Colts: the defense is loaded. I mean, seriously stacked. John Henderson and Marcus Stroud make up the best DT duo in football. Stroud missed some time in 2006, but was as good as ever when healthy. The ends (Bobby McCray and Paul Spicer) are pretty damn good too.

The secondary is led by corner Rashean Mathis, who made his first Pro Bowl last year after a break-out season. The Jags filled a major hole at safety by grabbing Reggie Nelson out of Florida in the first round of the draft, and they’re expecting him to step straight into the starting lineup.

The offense is led by the two-headed monster at running back: veteran injury-risk Fred Taylor and second-year sensation Maurice Jones-Drew. Both players averaged at least 5 yards per carry last year, and they combined for over 2,000 rushing yards. Jones-Drew provides the perfect complement to Taylor, giving the Jags two contrasting styles and the opportunity to keep both backs fresh and healthy.

That’s the basic pro-Jacksonville argument: great D and a great running game. I’m on board, nervously. The issues working against the Jags are significant and related: they’ve got a seriously muddy quarterback situation, and Jack Del Rio is probably a terrible head coach.

I’ve been an admitted Byron Leftwich fan ever since that bowl game he played in college on a broken leg, when his lineman were literally carrying him up the huddle after every play. That was just awesome. He hasn’t been a very good pro, unfortunately—at least, not yet. He’s a career 58% passer who’s missed 15 games in the last two seasons. Backup David Garrard seems to be taking on near-mythic proportions as the assumed answer at QB, which is something I cannot understand.

Garrard is an OK quarterback, but he’s nothing more than that. He went 5-5 as a starter last year—it’s not like he was winning games left and right. Leftwich actually has the potential to be an above-average NFL starter, and he should get that chance.

Jack Del Rio has made things a lot more complicated. Aside from presiding over the most insanely inconsistent team in football last year (they crushed the Colts and Jets while still losing TWICE to Houston), he allowed the quarterback controversy to spin out of control by badly mismanaging Leftwich’s return from injury. Things are only getting worse in the preseason. If Del Rio manages to get this team on the same page, they can contend for the Super Bowl—but that’s a pretty big “if.”

You can check out all of the False Starts here. Next up: the AFC West.