The Bloggers Minute: .... and BREEEAAATTTHHEeee

I’m blaming it on the Vikings.

I’m talking, of course, about the nearly universal pessimism of the Twins that is flowing through the daily print, radio waves, and my inbox. The Twins don’t have the pitching. The Twins need to trade Torii Hunter. The Twins are finished.

And I’m blaming it on the Vikings. This state has always been a football state, and we’ve ingrained some bad habits.

Like, a 6.5 game deficit is NOT particularly daunting. It turns out that there are 162 games in a baseball season and roughly 16 in a football season, and you don’t have to be able to do OPS calculations in your head to figure out that means one football game corresponds to roughly 10 baseball games. So, we do not need to plan for next year. And, more importantly, after every loss, we do NOT need to question every pitcher, every hometown hero, every coach, and every front office move to determine if we’re on the right track.

So tonight, try this. Try watching Joe Mauer’s four at-bats as something less than a referendum on his career. And while you're at it, try enjoying a more sane game.

That doesn’t involve hyperventilating.

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Hey. We're playing around a little this week. Several GameDay writers have agreed to try and write a "Bloggers Minute" - something rheotical that can hold an audience's interest, but still be about 200 words or less. If you're interested in joining the fun, or just showing your chops, post a comment with your own 200 word take. I'd love to see what you got.

Thanks,
John

Don't Panic

Imagine you have been captured by the most diabolical of James Bond villains. (I’m partial to Goldfinger, myself, but feel free to choose your favorite.) This is a Bond villain who has learned from the mistakes of past 007 adversaries; he is not going to place you in an overly-complicated and easily-escapable death trap. Instead he has devised something much more certain: he is going to put you in the box against Johan Santana. Get a hit, and you live. Fail, and it’s to the genetically-mutated sea bass for you. For just such an eventuality, we here at Gameday are proud to bring you the Johan Santana Survival Guide. By following these simple instructions, you can dramatically increase your chances for success. Good luck.

1. Face him in May

Johan’s slow starts are not a secret, and the numbers back them up. May has been Johan’s worst month statistically; his .257/.308/.446 allowed are all worst among months. March and April are also acceptable choices, but whatever you do, avoid him from June onward; he is especially deadly.

2. Green Monsters are your friend

Fenway Park has been unkind to Santana thus far in his career, and you should exploit this weakness whenever possible. His .328/.387/.469 opposing line in Fenway ranks as Johan’s toughest environment. If Fenway is temporarily unavailable, Camden Yards and the Rogers Centre are acceptable substitutes; however, avoid at all costs the Rangers’ Ballpark In Arlington, where Santana has a career line of .215/.283/.405

3. Use the twilight hours to your advantage

While Johan has allowed identical .278 OBPs in day and night games over his career, the opponent’s BA rises from .210 to .225 as the sun goes down. He also appears to be slightly more vulnerable on grass than on artificial turf, but the difference is so minute that you are better off seeking more substantial ways to gain an advantage.

4. Catch him on short rest

While opportunities to pounce on Santana on three days’ rest have been few and far between, his .231/.331/.454 line without the extra day of recovery is a marked improvement in your chances when compared to four days rest.

5. Attack early

The more pitches you see from Santana, the smaller your chances become. Your odds dramatically increase if you make contact within the first three pitches you see; however, care must be taken, for he is deadly and nearly unhittable with two strikes. When you pull the trigger early in your at-bat, make sure you don’t miss.

The challenge before you is great; it is for this reason that you must take every opportunity to better your chances. Even if you faithfully follow the above advice, the odds are against you. We wish you the best of luck, and may your evil adversaries be less ingenious in the future.

Split stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

In Other News...

That was fun, wasn't it? All hail the Naked BP.

Commission This

I’m not sure it’s even necessary to throw another opinion on the pile here, because most of the columns I’ve seen on this issue have been in agreement. But I do think it’s moderately important regardless. I’m sure everyone has heard that the commissioner is looking into suspending Jason Giambi for his sort-of-admittance to steroid use. It appears to be badly-veiled blackmail, with the message “talk to the Mitchell Commission, or else.” This is stupid, for a few reasons.

First of all, and most notably, Giambi has not failed a steroids test. For years now, baseball has said that without a failed test, their hands are tied. They’ve said their hands are tied (which is true); the Players’ Union (unlike their NFL counterparts) has been very active in trying to protect players from this kind of witch-hunt. If you suspend Giambi for what he said, then what do you do with the leaked Barry Bonds grand jury testimony? He admitted using “the cream and the clear” there. Bud Selig says that “any admission regarding the use of illegal performance-enhancing substances, however casual, must be taken seriously.” Perhaps, but the Bonds issue has obviously done more harm to baseball’s reputation; it’s impossible to justify going after one and not the other.

Any suspension would get hit with a lightning-quick appeal, of course. That would be interesting, just to finally clear up that foggy “best interests of baseball” clause that we hear so much about. Selig used those words himself when talking about Giambi, and I would enjoy seeing that kind of thing go to arbitration. But I might just be a closet anarchist.

The underlying issue here is the continued existence of the sham that is the Mitchell Commission. Can anyone explain what it still putters along? I suppose it’s to keep Congress satisfied, but all it’s doing is obscuring the process that baseball has made over the past few years. In a funny way, Mark McGwire was right. Talking about the past here probably does no good. Everyone has already made their mind up about what they think happened or did not happen. (I know I have.) And, honestly, I don’t really care. If we are not going to be able to retroactively test (Marty McFly is not returning my calls), all we can do is focus on the now.

Baseball has a good steroids policy. It didn’t ten years ago, but it does now. There’s no perfect system, but the 50 game penalty is appropriately tough, and testing is frequent enough. There is a lot baseball could be doing to proactively promote their new system. But instead, baseball continues to show how behind-the-times it really is. Just like they were slow to act on the steroid issue, they have been slow to move past it. Giambi was actually honest for a moment, and we should be glad. He said the right things: everyone involved should just admit the mistake and move on. That’s all anyone can do. Selig and his commission are just keeping a dead story alive; I hope Giambi stands up them here.

So Much Inconsistency

As I alluded to last week, I've been working on an update to my earlier article about the Twins lack of power (as seen through Isolated Slugging Percentage [ISO]). And let me tell you--it is not a pretty picture. Then again, you could probably guess that the Twins were still having problems with their offensive consistency after Levale Speigner held them to one run on two hits on Saturday, a feat which lowered his ERA to 7.79. If you'll excuse me for one moment, I'm going to smash a bat against my face to see if I can repress that memory (as well as display more power than every Twin not named Morneau, Cuddyer or Hunter).

If you look at the Twins run distribution, you'd expect to see a Bell Curve, with the biggest part of the curve centered somewhere near the Twins' average of 4.59 runs per game. That's not what happens, however. Since the Twins have scored 3 or less runs in almost half their games (29 out of 61), and their run total is skewed upwardly by the five games in which they've scored ten or more runs, the distribution actually looks like a downward slope, rather than a bell curve.

So if you want inconsistency, well, this is the team for you. The Twins have been shut out the same amount of times that they've scored more than ten runs. Only four teams have been shut out that many times (Pittsburgh and Oakland are tied with the Twins at five, while Washington, San Fransisco and St. Louis have six). Of those five teams, only Oakland has an OBP better than the league average and they are also the only one that's in the top two thirds of the Majors in that crucial statistic. Consequently, none of them are in the top two thirds in run scored.

Of course, the Twins are in the top ten in the Majors in OBP, yet they are seventeenth in runs scored. Of the top fifteen teams in OBP, only Colorado and Oakland have scored less runs than the Twins. My explanation for this phenomenon is the same as it was earlier--lack of power. Their inconsistency is due to their complete and total lack of power (the Twins' ISO is currently .124, which is less than 2006's .138 and 2005's .132). Colorado also backs up this theory--their ISO is just barely above the Twin's at .129, which helps explain why they have the 22nd most runs despite the 8th best OBP and a similar run distribution (28 of 64 games with 3 or less runs).

Currently, on the Twins, only Cirillo (.103), Kubel (.138), Mauer (.135), Morneau (.269), Hunter (.250) and Cuddyer (.171) have ISO's over .100. Only the last three have ISO's over the league average of .152. You'd expect an ISO of .200 or greater from a power hitter, which means the Twins have only two legitimate power threats and only three players that could be considered to have better than average power. Of course, this might not be surprising to you if you knew how many home runs the Twins' DH's have hit (2--both by Morneau).

So in a nutshell, the Twins' lack of power has once again lead to an offensive inconsistency that is both befuddling and infuriating. And there's little hope of any help on that front from the minors or from any of the Twins' current players. Which means that barring a trade, you can expect the Twins' offense to continue it's inconsistency through out the year, and it may even get worse next year, as the Twins could be down to just one power threat if Torii Hunter signs elsewhere.

Live, From Cinderella's Castle...

As you may have heard, the first four hours of baseball’s draft were broadcast live on ESPN2 on Thursday. Since I know almost nothing about draft prospects aside from a few random articles, I figured it was natural for me to sit down for the first round and report back on the goings-on. Every draft has a trademark; the NFL has Jets fans, the NBA has amazing suits, and the NHL has people un-ironically using the word “eh” in casual conversation. What will set baseball apart? Let’s find out...

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Karl Ravech in the house, live from... Disney World? Sure, why not. Steve Phillips and the Man, the Myth, the Gammons fill out ESPN’s crew, who are speaking in a dead-silent room. You can hear the echoes when they speak. We’ve got people from Baseball American and Scouts, Inc. as well so that we have someone here who knows what they’re talking about.

Every draft has its own buzzword; football loves a player’s “motor,” the NBA loves “length.” Apparently baseball is all about “signability.” Tell me something doesn’t need to be fixed there.

I’m glad they broke out the green-room for the players here; watching players hold up jerseys they won’t see again for three more years (if at all) is going to be a hoot. Especially the part when the Commish has to force a smile; I don’t think I’ve seen Bud smile in ten years.

Don Zimmer is here to represent the D-Rays. I hope they don’t make him carry the card up the podium; Tampa’s five-minute clock might run out.

Apparently Devil Ray fans do exist; in fact, all 34 of them might be in the building this afternoon.

Apparently the Royals here at number two are the big wild card—if they take George Brett, everyone else’s draft board goes down the tubes.

Judging solely by decibels, it doesn’t sound like Royals fans turned out this afternoon. Or Nats fans. Or Cubs fans. Or Pirates fans. It’s going to be a quiet four hours.

Good, I get my first unspellable name—Mike Moustakas (Moustakis? Mustakas?). Anyway, he’s a prep shortstop that probably will end up at third base, and he goes to the Royals. I feel even worse for Royals beat writers than I already do—they’re going to have to learn to spell him.

I’ve read that the Cubs are in baseball’s doghouse because of their ownership problems and are being heavily leaned on not to overpay a guy here. I love me some conspiracy theories. Anyway, they take Josh Vitters, a prep third baseman. He’s the first in-attendance pick of the day, and sets the bar high for “most awkward interview of the day.” I’ve seen more personable things on the side of the road.

A good day for the Greeks so far—Daniel Moskos off the board, joining Moustakas. Gammons tells us that he wasn’t “abused” in college, which is good to know; I’ve heard rumors of the Gophers using Chinese water torture in practices.

A name I’ve actually heard goes off the board in Matt Wieters, a Georgia Tech catcher. This was not supposed to happen according to what I’ve read; Wieters is a Scott Boras client, and Peter Angelos apparently hates Boras. I’d enjoy sitting in on those negotiations.

The Nationals grab a left-handed pitcher at number six, Ross Detwiler. Is he already their third-best starter? Either way, he apparently eats six meals a day trying to gain weight. That comment is followed directly by a highlight package of Prince Fielder (the Brewers pick next); I’m guessing that if Detwiler (who is a skinny chap) eats six meals, Prince eats about forty-nine.

Brewers fans actually get a bit of a chant going as they grab Florida first baseman Matt LaPorta. The main word associated with the pick was “interesting,” followed by “intriguing.” I think both of those are code words for “bad.”

At 11, the Mariners grab a Canuk, Phillippe Aumont from Quebec. He’s apparently the last player in the building, which is a shame. I was hoping for someone sitting there until 50. In any case, he’s giving Vitters a run for his money in the interview. He’s the master of the three-word answer.

Another AL Central team up next with Cleveland on the clock. I’m preparing to hate whoever gets picked here... and that lucky chap is Beau Mills, a lumbering college slugger. ESPN has him on the phone, and I think he has a hate-able face. I can muster the required spite for this guy.

The Braves take a high school outfielder from Georgia, netting the biggest in-house cheers since Price at number one. ESPN has an epic list of Braves in-state picks; someone should buy the Atlanta front-office an atlas.

The Reds grab a high schooler from Punxsutawney, PA. Feel free to make your own Groundhog Day joke.

Over half-way through the first round now, and so fan I’m vastly disappointed by the use (or, the non-use) of all the team representatives in the house. If we don’t give Darryl Strawberry something to do soon, he’s going to relapse.

Peter Gammons just snuck in a shot at all of the people who “talk about Moneyball and then never read it.” I hope Joe Morgan isn’t watching. Oh, wait. Of course he isn’t watching. That would mean he’s actually attempting to do something informative for his job as a baseball analyst.

Karl Ravech points out the boards in all of the teams’ rooms, and asks Steve Phillips what’s on them. Response: “...Names of players.” That’s the kind of hard-hitting analysis that I’ve come to know and love.

Whoops. I got sucked in by a fantastic YouTube video and missed like three picks. Focus! Anywho, the White Sox on the clock, with the Twins coming up in three picks. We’re in the good stuff now.

Selig is finding a nice groove with his “Team X is on the clock” delivery. It’s just bored enough with a touch of obliviousness. Fantastic stuff. The White Sox take some college lefty. I wish him ill. Tigers, followed by Twins for the next two picks.

I snuck a question into a chat with Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein on Wednesday, and he said to be looking for high school middle infielders with the Twins at 28. The specific guy he mentioned may or may not have been named after the dorm I lived in my first year of college; we’ll see how this shakes out.

The Tigers take Rick Porcello, a high school pitcher regarded as one of the absolute top talents in the draft who fell because of the Scott Boras effect. The Tigers have been willing to take tough-to-sign guys (see: Andrew Miller last year) and it’s paid off big-time for them (Verlander, Miller, etc.). Twins on the clock.

I’m getting a bit worried about Detroit. They’re very willing to spend the extra money to get top-flight draft talents, and their rotation could be dominant in two years. Eek.

Ben Revere, a 5’9”, 152 pound high school centerfielder from Kentucky. Sounds like a pure speed guy; one of the ESPN talking heads loves this guy. No one else seems to have heard of him.

One thing that drives me nuts: Steve Phillips says that the Twins have to score runs by grinding it out because they don’t have the “boppers.” That might be true now, but why would that affect a draft pick? I mean, they could just as easily grab a power hitter, right? Not that I’m against this pick (I mean, what do I know?); I’m just against Steve Phillips.

On the plus side, this guy has an easily-punnable name. His first stolen base in a West-Coast night game can be his midnight ride. On the minus side, ESPN does not have a picture of Mr. Revere; he may or may not exist.

Here come the Yankees with the final came of round one. Everyone is expecting the money-bags to open up here. They end up rolling the dice on Andrew Brackman (a college righty), who may or may not have some kind of elbow injury. They’ll just keep him away from Pavano and I’m sure he’ll be fine.

So with the first round wrapped up, I’ll skedaddle as well. Overall, I was pleasantly surprised by ESPN’s coverage. It was quite no-frills, with people who actually knew what they were talking about. There was no John Kruk-type to be seen, just Gammons, the prospect gurus, and Phillips to give a bit of front office perspective. The five minute gap is pretty solid as well; it gives the TV guys time to give a little info about each pick without the whole thing dragging. So all in all, not too shabby.

Links 6/5

I had a half written out piece on the Twins' offensive inconsistency, their awful isolated slugging percentage (which is currently lower than the iso. in both 2005 and 2006), but after spending all day reading the great stuff on the web today, I've decided to put it on the back burner for now (don't worry, I'll be revisiting it later) and just provide links today.

And now, after building them up, here are the links:

• Frequent Batgirl and Section 220 commenter Jim Crikket checks in with a report from Kevin Slowey's debut.
• So how did Slowey's debut fare in comparison with Twins' Aces from the past (and present)?
• Ubelmann from Twinkietown looked at Slowey's career projections and found that those fans who are missing Brad Radke are going to really like the kid.
  
• Reason #1 why being a paid blogger is worse than doing it for free--you aren't a target for Fire Joe Morgan.
• Joe Christensen complements his feature on Tony Olivia with even more stories on his blog.
  
• Erik Lis on hitting a home run off the highest paid pitcher ever to suffer a groin injury.
• If you saw the Fresno St. pitcher take a line drive off of his head in the game against the Gophers Sunday night, I'm sure you'll agree with the Bleacher Boys. I'm sure Pat Neshak does.
• John Sickel held a five round mock draft at his site in preparation for Thursday's draft. Don't forget--they're televising it for the first time this year on ESPN2.
• What if ESPN had been around the entire century?
  
• Wondering how the Twins' current prospects are faring? Seth and Roger both have up their Minor League reports for May.
• We're gonna win Twins! We're gonna score!
• Only a few more days until the Side Burned One returns...and he's anxious to be back.
• No wonder Joe Vavra's such a good hitting coach.
• And finally, in case you haven't seen it, Bobby Cox' successor.