MN GameDay Writers

Catching Up With The Circle Me Bert Superstar

2011-04-07T18:43:00.000-07:00

GameDay: When we spoke two years ago, you'd been circled by Bert Blyleven 27 times. What's the count at now?

Boone Hagarsky: I'm up to 39. You can find all the video at my website, CMBSuperstar.com.

GD: A lot has been written about the adjustments Twins players made moving from the Metrodome to their new ballpark. Did the move to Target Field require changes to your Circle Me Bert approach?

BH: Oh, absolutely. The Metrodome was a just a pristine Circle Me Bert environment. No wind or rain. No sun, so pretty steady temperatures and lighting. At Target Field, you've got to inject these environmental variables into your preparation and presentation equations.

GD: Talk about the adjustments to the preparation piece. Last time you described some really interesting preparation methods. Things like using dressing room mirrors and in store surveillance video monitors to experiment with stances, sign presentation angles, and the like.

BH: Sure. What you're describing there I call technique training. With the injection of Target Field weather elements, you've got to cross train that technique training with what I call MST -- Materials Stress Testing. If you want to be ready for anything Mother Nature throws your way, you've got to subject yourself and your hand held signage materials to the most extreme weather conditions you can simulate.

GD: With the winter we just had, I don't imagine you had much trouble simulating cold and snow.

BH: (laughs) No, that wasn't a problem. But cold and snow aren't something I worry about too much. Heat, and especially humidity, pose much greater challenges.

GD: You're talking about fatigue?

BH: You bet. There's is a "wilt factor", both for the man and his Circle Me Bert signs. I’ve found the best place to MST for wilting is at a health club. Unfortunately, lots of places want to claim they have policies against bringing signs into the men’s steam room. Especially when you're fully clothed.

GD: You get hassled?

BH: Well, usually by the third visit they'll insist I remove my clothes and leave the signs behind. At that point I’ll start MST-ing my accessories. That's when the younger guys -- I'm talking about health club security – they’ll start playing a little rough. The older guys, the guys who know their U.S. history, they tend to be more careful. I see them looking at me like, "That can't be him, can it?"

GD: You're referring to your astonishing resemblance to Henry Kissinger.

BH: Exactly right. I think there may be an intimidation factor there. (laughs). I clear out before they realize you're probably not going to find Henry Kissinger in a Minneapolis steam room straddling a donkey-headed broomstick while wearing nothing but cowboy boots and a Circle Me Bert sombrero.

GD: Pieces of a Don Quixote assemblage?

BH: One of my favorite Circle Me Burt ensembles. But look, if you're prepared to leave behind your conventional paper signs and your accessories, a men’s steam room can be a really good place to MST your experimental signs. I'm talking about the ones that push and ultimately redefine the boundaries of what constitutes a hand held sign.

GD: Give me an example.

BH: Well, suppose I paint on my chest a picture of me holding a Circle Me Bert sign. Now, suppose the sign in that picture also shows me holding a Circle Me Bert sign. Whose sign in turn shows me holding a Circle Me Bert sign. And so on. Circle Me Bert signs inside of Circle Me Bert signs inside of Circle Me Bert signs.

GD: Where does the Circle Me Bert sign end.

BH: Yes. But more interestingly, where do I end and where does the sign begin? In Heideggerran jargon, has my Being left the behind the realm of Dasein and entered the realm of the Ding an Sich? In layman's terms, have I become, in a profound and exciting way, a Circle Me Bert sign myself?

GD: I never would have thought to go there.

BH: Stay with me. Say I'm wearing this sign at the ballpark and Bert circles me. With the endless regress the picture suggests, have I been circled by Bert just once?

GD: Or an infinite number of times.

BH: Exactly. The phenomenology of the Circle Me Bert experience is just endlessly fascinating. What was once little more than an aside in my book is now a section approaching one hundred pages.

GD: So the move to the new ballpark has helped you explore existential dimensions of the Circle Me Bert experience. Sounds like Target Field has another fan.

BH: Oh no. Not at all. Listen, getting circled by Bert shouldn’t require that you ride a Valley Fair roller coaster to MST your signs against straight line winds. Getting circled shouldn’t require that you drive all the way to a Wisconsin Dells water park to MST your signs against everything from a sprinkle to a cloudburst. Especially when there are so many mothers who get absolutely hysterical when their small children get tangled up and allegedly “pulled under” by the soggy detritus from disintegrating signs. What I’m saying is that with the introduction of the weather elements, we’re talking about another, higher level of preparation and commitment here.

GD: Is that necessarily a bad thing?

BH: Absolutely it’s a bad thing. Look, seeing others getting circled, getting circled if you've cultivated those skills -- that's a huge part of the Twins experience. If the move to Target Field is pushing Circle Me Bert into an extreme sport, what does that do to the participation rates? I think every Minnesotan ought to be asking himself or herself, "Is the move outdoors worth it if we diminish the Circle Me Bert phenomenon in the process?”

GD: And your answer is no.

BH: I’d like to see the Twins move back into the dome.

GD: Wait. You must realize how preposterous that sounds.

BH: It’s not as preposterous as you might think. I’ve started up an organization to push for it. We Like It Here has piqued the interest of some heavy hitters.

GD: For instance?

BH: You’ve heard of Mike Veeck.

GD: Of course. The St. Paul Saints owner.

BH: Lunching with him next week. Then there’s Justin Morneau.

GD: Justin Morneau?

BH: Not sure how he found out about us, but he approached me. He’s been incredibly supportive.

GD: Well, I’d wish We Like It Here the best of luck, but given the popularity of Target Field, that would probably cost me my three readers.

BH: (laughs)

GD: Listen, you mentioned your book. I’ve no doubt it's going to give us a really comprehensive look at all facets of the Circle Me Bert experience. When can we expect it on the shelves?

BH: I still have some work left. They uncovered some primitive hand held sign technologies in a pre-Clovis site in Monte Verde, Chile. Just incredible. That’s forcing me to rework the “origins” section. And then I need to find a publisher. But it’s close.

GD: We’d love to post some excerpts here.

BH: Yeah, maybe. Let me see what I can do.

GD: Great. Thanks for the time, Boone.

BH: Thank you. And win Twins!

Interview with a Circle Me Bert Superstar

2009-08-06T17:05:00.000-07:00

Boone Hagarsky suffers for his sport. Sunny summer days spent inside the Metrodome has colored him the cadaverous off-white of the Metrodome ceiling. His failing eyesight and aggressive tinnitus he blames on the stadium's poor lighting and ear-shattering sound system. With his permanent squint and his head perpetually cocked towards his better ear, Hagarsky is a portrait of the man perplexed by something in the middle distance, or perhaps in another dimension. And yet Hagarsky's four-dome-dog a game habit places him unmistakably among the corporeal. Taken altogether, Hagarsky seems to have achieved in his person the impossible: An immense nullity that suggests both the impressive heft and the near-weightlessness of a giant marshmallow man.

Despite these handicaps, Hagarsky has been circled by Bert Blyleven more than any other Twins fan. GameDay caught up with this Circle Me Bert superstar in his studio apartment in Minneapolis.

***

GD: How many times have you been circled?

BH: Twenty-seven and counting.

GD: I think most of them have found their way into a YouTube video montage that’s gone viral. Are you recognized at the Dome?
BH: I think so. People stare at me a lot. But I don’t get approached, if that’s what you mean. Actually, I was asked for an autograph once. But the guy thought I was Henry Kissinger.

GD: The resemblance is astonishing.

BH: So I’ve been told. But why would Henry Kissinger be at the Dome wearing a Circle Me Bert sunflower sign? It made no sense.

GD: Why did you put the video out there?

BH: Well, I know there are a ton of people who would love to be circled by Bert just once. I guess I hope the video inspires people to chase that dream, and that it also acts as a tutorial of sorts for people just getting started.

GD: But it just boils down to holding a sign over your head, right?

BH: No, not at all. Listen, there’s a hell of a lot more to getting circled than just holding a sign over your head. I mean, if that’s all there was to it, then what have you accomplished? Why get so excited? "Hey everybody, look at me! I’m on TV! Yay!” Maybe if you’re a little kid you feel that way. But a grown adult? It’s not like Bert’s circling imbeciles out there.

GD: I’ve pushed a button.

BH: Well, I don’t think people understand the preparation that goes into getting circled.

GD: You mean the sign making piece?

BH: See, that’s what I’m talking about. Yeah, the signage is important. But I could give you the best sign in my collection and unless you spend some time with it away from the game you're not going to be circled.

GD: I’m not following you. Are you talking about practicing?

BH: Definitely. That camera can come at you from any direction. So right there you’ve got 360 degrees to worry about. There’s the angle of tilt on your sign. You’d better have that calibrated to the angle of the camera. And then Bert can pull that pen out at any time, and you want to snap right into your presentation stance. So there’s a muscle memory element there.

GD: Do you work this out in front of the mirror?

BH: Sometimes mirrors. Dressing room mirrors work great -- you can analyze your presentation from multiple angles. Even better than that are in-store security video monitors.

GD: Don't the stores mind you doing this?

BH: Sometimes. Actually, all of the time. I’ve been banned from just about every Super America between here and the Iron Range. And then there are the arrests and all that you’ve got to deal with when they take you downtown and throw you in with the perverts. But this is what I’m talking about. If you want to be circled, there’s a price to pay. There’s a price.

GD: Let’s get back to the signs themselves. What makes a good sign?

BH: Well, that’s going to be a big part of my book, so right now I don't want to go into the crafting aspect. But here again, preparation is key. You want to do your research. You can uncover just a treasure trove of ideas and inspiration if you study the history of the hand-held sign.

GD: There’s a history there?

BH: (laughs) Believe it or not we Minnesotans didn't invent the hand-held sign.

GD: How far back does the hand-held sign go?

BH: Well, there is some pretty compelling evidence that Jesus Christ used hand-helds.

GD: That’s unbelievable.

BH: Not really when you look at the crafting aspect if this. Lots of times I’m sitting there and an idea just comes out of nowhere. Ten or twelve or fourteen hours later I’m looking at a finished sign and I know that my rationality played absolutely no role in that exercise.

GD: Does this “divine madness” touch you when you’re presenting the signs?

BH: I think it does. At least, I can tell when Bert is in the process of circling me. I don’t know where that comes from.

GD: How can you tell?

BH: I’m talking physically. My muscles tighten. I flush. I start to tremble. My nostrils flare uncontrollably. I pant like a dog. And then there’s a prominent, and frankly, quite embarrassing reaction that I don’t want to get into here.

GD: That sounds pretty uncomfortable.

BH: Well, I think of it more like a heightening. It’s like when you go into combat.

GD: You’ve seen combat?

BH: I did a Civil War re-enactment once. Gettysburg. Battle of.

GD: Last question: have you ever met Bert?

BH: Nope. Don’t want to either. I don’t want favoritism to play any part in this. I want to be circled for my excellence.

GD: Thanks for your time.

Summer Baseball Heats Up in the NWL!

2008-07-01T14:35:00.000-07:00

It's almost mid-season for the Northwoods League and the races are really getting interesting now. Unlike most baseball leagues that you may be familiar with, the NWL has division winners for the first half as well as the second half of the season. Those first half winners are granted a bid in the playoffs at the end of the season. So, with just a shade under two weeks left before the All-Star break, it's starting to feel like end-of-season baseball.

In the North Division, the Manakto Moondogs have been in the lead pretty much since the season began. The still lead with a 19-12 record, but they have company at the top. The Rochester Honkers are right behind them at 18-12. The St. Cloud Riverbats are within striking distance with a 16-14 record, but they've won 7 straight, so they could make things interesting.

The South Division has been a tighter race all along and suddenly, it's a traffic jam at the top. The Wisconsin Woodchucks (Wausau) have been up at the top most of the season and now find themselves tied with the red-hot Madison Mallards for the division lead at 20-10. A strong La Crosse Loggers squad is right on their tails at 19-11.

If I were to pick an early, first-half MVP for the NWL my ballot would go for Eric Stephens of the Rochester Honkers. The junior infielder from Cal-State Fullerton is hitting at a .377 (tied for 1st) clip with 5 home runs (also a tie for 1st), 31 rbi (2nd), 11 stolen bases (tied for 3rd), 11 doubles (tied for 1st) and a .642 slugging percentage (1st). He's not just a stat stud, he's a big reason that the Mankato Moondogs are looking at Rochester in their rear view mirror as the Honkers are charging up. Honorable Mention: Derek Melton, 1B, La Crosse Loggers.

I Blinked...What Happened in the Northwoods League?

2008-06-18T09:34:00.000-07:00

Okay, I got off to a slow start this year. I've been so busy hitting the party deck at the Lumberyard (Copeland Park in La Crosse) that I plum forgot to sit down and get my blog going. Now, as we finish up about three weeks of play, it's time to update everyone on how things are going for our college guys trying to make a splash. (Ooh...speaking of a splash...Waterloo's stadium is has a better chance of seeing a bass tournament than a Bucks game anytime soon. It's completely underwater.)

At this point there are two teams in the NWL that just seem to be way ahead of the pack. In the North Division, the Mankato Moondogs are dominating with a 14-4 record. Behind them is Rochester with a respectable 11-6 tally and then the rest of the pack just sort of follows along. In the South Division it's Jim Gantner's Wisconsin Woodchucks leading the way at a dominant 15-3 clip. Madison and La Crosse are tied behind the Chucks with 12-6 records each.

Since the College World Series and the Team USA tryouts are still going on, a lot of teams are still waiting on some of their top signees to arrive, so things can turn around in a hurry. I know I was stoked to see Brian Morgado (104 strikeouts in 80.1 innings pitched at Tennessee this spring), but he's still trying to land a spot on Team USA. Bummer. (Well, not for him!)

So who are the players that are whoopin' up so far? Here's the short list of early NWL studs.

Derek McCallum - St. Cloud River Bats - .439 avg, 17 runs, 15 RBI (That's a solid contributor.)
Carlos Ramirez - Mankato Moondogs - .422 avg, 17 RBI, .641 slugging (a doubles machine!)
Eric Stephens - Rochester Honkers - .350, 3 hrs, 20 RBI. (This guy puts runs on the board.)

Phil Haig - Rochester Honkers - 2-0, .038 ERA in 24 innings pitched. (There are some 3-win pitchers...but .038 in that many innings? That's a stud.)
Aaron Varnum - Wisc. Woodchucks - 6 saves, 10 K's in 10 innings. (6 saves in 15 wins? Nice.)
Chris Sale - La Crosse Loggers - 2-1 with 31 K's in 25 innings. (Tall, lefty...keep and eye on this guy.)

I started out my season by hitting Madison, La Crosse, and Rochester on opening weekend and then put back-to-back-to-back games together in La Crosse this past weekend. Not a bad way to start my summer. Keep checkin' in and I'll keep giving you updates and some insights into the coolest baseball league around.

Northwoods Baseball is Here at Last!

2008-05-29T11:26:00.000-07:00

Finally, the Northwoods Baseball season is upon us! I feel like a nervous college kid knocking on a stranger's door. I've heard about her. I've listened to others give their opinions. But a blind date is still a blind date. You just don't know what you'll find when you open that door, no matter how much you try to figure it out before hand.

By the time the Major League season rolls around in April, we all have a pretty good idea who are the "haves" and who are the "have nots." Sure, there are some surprises here and there (can you say "Rays?") but over all, we know who will be contenders in the end.

The Northwoods League is nothing like that. No matter what kind of numbers these kids put up during their college season, you just don't know what they'll do with with (or against) wood bats. Plus, you get to add the drama of players showing up days, even weeks, late for the season because their college program made it into the College World Series. Every team can legitimately believe that they have what it takes to win it all.

I love the league. Make no mistake. But at heart, I really am La Crosse Loggers fan, so now I need to go, put on my best outfit, grab my corsage (beer) and open that door to see what blind date looks like this season.

Please don't be ugly. Please don't be ugly. Please don't be ugly!

The important things

2008-04-13T12:35:00.000-07:00

So, I'll call Liriano's return a tentative success, but we learned something even more important from Sunday's game: Bert Blyleven is a swinger.

(I hope someone put's that comment up on YouTube. Anyone with a TiVo?)

Inside the Mind of a Batting Practice Ball Hawk

2008-03-19T19:53:00.000-07:00

Barry Bonds’ 762nd – and possibly last – home run generated a mad scramble for the baseball. In the middle of that scrum was Jake Frazier. Frazier, a notorious Bay Area ball hawk who claims he missed out on the Bonds ball because he was “stoned to the bone”, had this to say about his technique:

If I hip-checked that guy, he wouldn't ****' be standin' up...it's a baseball, man, it's a prize. You have to be aggressive. If you're not aggressive, you won't get it. You're out there playin' in a metal and concrete jungle, and there's people competing, so yeah, you know, you get little scrapes and bruises."

I sat down with Jake Frazier and got inside the mind of a batting practice ball hawk.

***

My first moment with one of Major League Baseball’s most notorious ball hawks took my breath away. No sooner had I introduced myself than Jake Frazier slipped inside my handshake and delivered a short, powerful uppercut to my stomach.

“Sorry about that, dude,” Frazier said, helping me to my feet. “Had to establish dominance.”

Meet Jake Frazier, a twenty-six year old San Francisco Giants fan who works in the medical marijuana business when he is not gobbling up batting practice balls at AT&T Park. His remarkable ball hawking success – Frazier has captured thousands of baseballs over the years – is as unusual as his fierce enthusiasm for a pastime most men leave behind in their pubescence. Frazier has denied so many a chance at a baseball over the years that his name has become an anathema to the dispossessed. They will tell you that when Frazier’s beaten you to a baseball, and possibly beaten you with a baseball, you’ve not just lost the scramble for a souvenir.

You’ve been Jaked.

***

Frazier first spotted his opportunity a few years ago when he arrived at the ballpark early. Kids hustling for batting practice home runs caught his eye.

“Anytime I see a crowd of little dudes going after something, I’m like, ‘I’m a big dude. I can have that.’”

Frazier grew even more excited when he recognized that the youngsters’ poor hand-eye coordination made for some exceptionally weak competition.

“I mean there were balls bouncing off their gloves, balls bouncing of their heads. Boink! Little dudes were clueless. I knew I could do better.”

It was only after wading into the youngsters that the 6-4, 240 pound Frazier realized he had his work cut out for him. His lack of a ground game often meant his aggressive checking worked against him.

“Yeah, someone hits a baseball my way and – boom! – little dudes flying left and right. Looks like a keg of dynamite going off in a Popsicle stick factory. But then the ball lands, and if I’m not right on top of the spot the ball’s rolling around on the ground. Little dudes are down there already. They move fast. Advantage: little dudes.”

Frazier realized that if we wanted to dominate the ball-hawking game, he needed a technique that would put the ball in his glove in the end, even if it didn’t start there to begin with. A television program about the interrogation of suspected terrorists led to an epiphany.

“I'm watching this show and suddenly I’m like, dude! So next time I’m at the game and a little dude beats me to the ball, I pin his ankles together with one hand, lift him off the ground, and waterboard him with my cup of Pepsi. Little dude drops the ball real quick. But I’m out a Pepsi. Not cool, man. Money doesn’t grow on trees in the medical marijuana business. “

Eventually, Frazier abandoned the technique for one he had mastered long ago while prowling the halls of his junior high school. It was while discussing this move with me that Frazier decided a demonstration was in order.

It was a demonstration I would regret.

“Let me show you what I do,” Frazier said. Displaying a quickness that belied his tremendous bulk, Frazier snaked around behind me and reached inside my belt. Suddenly I was jerked off my feet.

“Little dude picks up ball. I pick up little dude by the undies. If he doesn’t drop the ball right away, I’ll bounce him. Like this.”

Frazier began working me like a yo-yo.

“At some point, he drops the ball.”

I did not doubt that. The pain was excruciating.

“Before I let little dude go I’ll turn him around, get up in his grill, and say, ‘Congratulations, little dude. You’ve been Jaked.’”

***

I asked Frazier if he thought he might be taking his pursuit of batting practice baseballs too seriously. What was another baseball, when he had thousands already? Wouldn’t a baseball mean more to a youngster who didn’t have a single one?

Frazier insisted I was missing the point. For him, the bleachers represent a metal and concrete jungle. Frazier sits on top of the food chain.

“Dude, when a lion sees a monkey walking down a path in the jungle, does he tap the monkey on the shoulder and say, ‘Pardon me little monkey dude, do you mind if I eat you?’ No way dude. Monkey gets eaten, no questions asked. Circle of life, man.”

Frazier did admit that having dominated the ball-hawking game for so long, he was looking for another challenge. He thinks he might have found one in autographs.

“I see these little dudes lined up for autographs. What if I get in that game? Man, those little dudes stand no chance."

The Sage Of Minneapolis: An Ode To Dan Barreiro

2008-02-12T19:01:00.000-08:00

A few days ago Twins Geek made an interesting post about paradigms. To summarize, paradigms are the lenses through which we view the world. Through our paradigms, some aspects of our environment are drawn into sharper focus while others are obscured. The larger point is that the reality behind the paradigm does not change: a paradigm-free perspective would perceive an unfiltered reality, whereas a paradigm-generated perspective shades things.

So far so good. But now we toe contested ground. Some would have it that there is no such thing as a paradigm-free perspective. For instance, those who allege a "liberal bias" in the mainstream media claim that media members’ liberal paradigms inform everything they report, including what issues they choose to cover. Stepping outside of those paradigms and reporting objectively is not possible, the claim contends. Others believe that we can step outside of our paradigms long enough to view and process reality objectively.

As an old philosophy major I'm aware that the above was a gloss on a controversy loaded with complexity. Nevertheless, I think the positions at stake are clear enough. I also believe that the paradigm-centric assumption has a profoundly negative effect on our discourse. Not only does the position discourage people from attempting to stake out objective perspectives on issues; its prevailing status as conventional wisdom discourages us from criticizing those who broadcast ostensibly "objective", but evidently agenda-driven, points of view. Why challenge the intellectually dishonest if all argumentation is paradigm driven and thus biased in some way?

I do believe that we have the ability to mostly shed our paradigms and consider the world from a mostly objective point of view. I don't believe that to do so is easy. A paradigm simplifies the world by setting reality into a pre-configured mold. In addition, paradigms allow for a community of paradigm-sharers to find solace in the company of others who have predictably similar perspective on things. To step outside of one's paradigms is to step away from the security of those paradigms and to face a world full of frustrating nuance and complexity.

But with what values, one might ask. Shed the paradigms and don’t you shed the value systems that are the product of them?

Not entirely. Leave behind the paradigms and one is left with a commitment to taking the world as it is without “spinning” it so that it will fit into a paradigm. The paradigm-free make a virtue of intellectual honesty.

For reasons I won’t get into so as not to make a long post longer, I do think the world would be a better place if we were quick to brand the intellectually dishonest with a Scarlet D. And I think more would be inclined to think critically and with a healthy independence if we celebrated the intellectual honesty of those who attempt to process the world paradigm-free. Which brings me to former Star Tribune sports columnist and current KFAN radio personality Dan Barreiro.

As a columnist, Barreiro's contrarian spirit and his willingness to savage the eminently savagable raised faint echoes of H.L. Mencken. That echo has grown even louder as his radio personality has evolved over the years. Barreiro doesn't suffer fools lightly, and his willingness to take a hatchet to purveyors of ignorance, intolerance, and fraudulence rivals Mencken’s own motivations in tone and tenor if not in the quality of the resulting criticism. When I listen to Barreiro, I am greeted with the same thought that visits me when I read Mencken: here is someone who both values and practices intellectual honesty, who desires nothing more (and nothing less) than to view the world objectively.

I believe his body of work supports this interpretation. As exhibit A I’d point to the befuddlement with which a certain segment of his listenership greets his program. The frequency with which his callers and e-mailers accuse him of being, alternately, liberal and conservative, is both laughable and distressing. Laughable because the accusations see-saw as conclusions arrived at without the assistance of a paradigm driven-agenda take on an alternatively liberal or conservative hue. Distressing because the comments demonstrate that some accustomed to paradigm-driven, intellectually dishonest talk radio don't know what to make of someone who is intellectually honest. These listeners seem troubled that you cannot approach Barreiro’s show with the same confidence you can approach so many shows up and down the AM dial. In fact it is not possible to predict how Barreiro will respond to any given subject by holding that subject up against an agenda. After fifteen years listening I still don't know exactly where his politics lay. I offer that as a form of tribute.

Before you suggest he and I get a room, I’ll mention here that I don’t believe that Barreiro is above criticism. His fondness for creating, and then destroying, argumentative straw men can make his criticism gratuitous at times. His “Done as a Society” segment, for instance, which features bizarre or troubling news items, is related with an incredulity that suggests he believes he is the last sane man in America. Likewise, on the subject of local sports, his tendency to find a cloud behind every silver lining draws him perilously close to paradigmatic-blinkered thinking: at times Barreiro seems programmed to see the negative to the exclusion of the positive.

Still, even these tendencies can make for colorful, entertaining radio. And I don’t believe they detract from his accomplishment, which has been to carve out in the competitive drive time slot a radio program that has managed to remain intelligent, eclectic, and above all, intellectually honest. Barreiro may not be another H.L. Mencken. He’s the closest we have to him in this market however. For that I believe he has earned our respect.

Jim Souhan's Lazy Journalism

2008-02-10T18:20:00.000-08:00

Jim Souhan devoted his Sunday column to cataloguing local reaction to epochal events in Minnesota sports. The public’s supposedly unanimous responses -- “Minnesotans hated these deals”-- to moves that worked out well served as a refrain that lent the piece a satisfying cohesion, stylistically speaking.

That the refrain also painted a misleading picture did not seem to concern Souhan. How else to explain his decision to include among the "hated" moves the decision to draft Joe Mauer over Mark Prior in the 2001 draft? No doubt some observers felt that the Twins were choosing the lesser but more affordable talent in Mauer. But to suggest that Minnesotans in general hated this deal? Didn’t the excitement surrounding that pick suggest that most took pride in the selection? I suspect that Souhan decided to include the Mauer pick near the end of his list because the pick turned out so spectacularly well, and the suggestion that Minnesotans hated the pick served as a fine exclamation point to his contention that Minnesotans react with knee-jerk and ultimately myopic unanimity to sports related events.

Of course the obvious problem with that contention is that it is wrong. Turn on sports talk radio or enter the Minnesota sports blogsphere and you’ll discover a diversity local opinion on most any local sporting subject you’ll care to name. To remain ignorant of, or possibly ignore, that diversity for the sake of thematic and stylistic integrity of a piece is to engage in lazy journalism.

Souhan is the Crown Prince (or rather the Court Jester) of lazy journalism in that his pieces are loosely constructed and typically favor glib humor over analysis. That approach makes for entertaining, but rarely informative, pieces. As someone who relies at least as much on humor as analysis in his own writing, I’d be a hypocrite to suggest that there is no place for his style of writing in the sports page. I will suggest, however, that Souhan ought to recognize where his contribution rates among those who elevate substance over style.

Certainly that substance is out there. There are local bloggers who write some very informative stuff. For instance, Nick Nelson, Aaron Gleeman, Ubelmann and company over at SBG, the crew at Twins Territory, Kyle Eliason, John Sharkey, the inimitable John Bonnes (aka Twins Geek), and a host of others frequently featured at MNGameDay.com and whom I do a disservice by failing to mention often write posts steeped in detailed, research-driven analysis.

Which brings me to a throwaway line in Sunday’s throwaway piece:

“Gentle readers – and bloggers who remain ever-hopeful of gainful employment – hate everything about the (Santana) deal…. And they remind me that I must be wrong, because Minnesotans’ gut reactions are always right."

The implication in this line – and indeed in the entire piece – is that bloggers base their opinion on their gut, whereas Souhan bases his opinion on informed argument. Certainly one might argue that this should be the case. With the exception of Gleeman, the bloggers I have mentioned are not full time scribes. They are college students and business men and women and blue and white collar professionals who shoehorn their blogging into crowded lives. Indeed, it is precisely because bloggers are gainfully employed by organizations that don’t pay them to write that one would expect to discover in their works a species of lazy journalism. Likewise, it is precisely because Jim Souhan is gainfully employed by a newspaper that pays him to research and to write that one would expect much research-backed analysis.

That this is not always the case -- that Souhan’s Sunday column stands as an exemplar of his loose, style-driven approach while MNGameday.com is loaded with links to research-driven blogs -- suggests that, at the very least, when Souhan tars the purveyors of relatively uninformed sports commentary, he feathers himself in the process.

Mocked NFL Draft: The First Ten Picks

2008-02-08T04:23:00.001-08:00

So we only know baseball, you say? Bah. Gameday projects the first ten picks of the 2008 NFL Draft.

1. Miami (1-15)
The Pick: Bill Germanokos, OL, Winner of NBC's "Biggest Loser"
The buzz: In Germanakos, NFL’s biggest loser lands a proven winner already accustomed to humiliating himself on national television. Should have no problem regaining dirigible proportions; elephantine buttocks could anchor O-line for a decade.

2. St. Louis (3-13)
The Pick: Paul Douglas, QB, Meteorologist
The buzz: Consensus number two a supremely talented backpedaller who always manages to avoid being exposed when fronts collapse. Polished, cerebral improviser has mostly dodged concerns over accuracy. Toolset includes spectacular Doppler Unit. Needs to bulk up a bit.

x - 3. Atlanta (4-12)
The Pick: Steve Irwin (deceased), QB, Animal Planet’s "The Crocodile Hunter"
The buzz: After the Vick debacle, Falcons must rate character over physical ability. Strong commitment to animal rights will offset Irwin's figurative, literal lack of pocket presence.

x - 4. Oakland (4-12)
The Pick: Pat Robertson, RB, Host, The 700 Club
The buzz: Al Davis and company looking for battering-ram type back. Robertson, who believes the earth is 9000 years old, comes with rocks in his head.

x - 5. Kansas City (4-12)
The Pick: Rachael Ray, OL, Celebrity Chef
The buzz: Chief's once dominant O-line in need of some help. Ray is a pancake machine. A no-brainer here.

6. N.Y. Jets (4-12)
The Pick: Fox NFL Robot, DT, Fox NFL Pregame Show
The buzz: Robot tumbles all the way to six after disappointing Super Bowl showing against the Terminator. Jets enamored with jumping, knee bending, finger pointing abilities.

7. New England (From SF (5-11))
The Pick: Cloverfield monster, DE
The buzz: Monster has size, strength to dominate the edges. Performance in East River puts to rest doubts concerning swim technique. Patriots love proven track record against New York.

8. Baltimore (5-11)
The Pick: Michael Jackson, RB, Pop Superstar
The buzz: Shifty and elusive with plenty of dazzle. Scouts agog over unusual "moonwalking" gait, which can make him seem to go forward even while he's losing ground. Nose for football, nose lacking.

9. Cincinnati (7-9)
The Pick: David Blaine, WR, Street Magician
The buzz: Dynamic performer with great hands and magical skills. Signature levitation move will make him unstoppable in end zone fade routes.

10. New Orleans (7-9)
The Pick: Dennis Kucinich, LB, U.S. Representative
The buzz: New Orleans in desperate need of Douglas and his Doppler but may have to settle for Kucinich instead. Tenacious but undersized, inability to range to his right limits his appeal. Probably a reach here.

Tim Tschida's Neighbor Questioned: The Shocking Transcript

2008-01-31T18:18:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, Major League Baseball was accused of sending investigators into umpires’ hometowns to ask neighbors “ill-contrived questions”, a form of background checking that some likened to the actions of a secret police. Gameday's crack investigative team has secured the transcript of one such conversation between major league baseball investigator Tom Christopher and a long-time neighbor of St. Paul native and MLB umpire Tim Tschida.

***

Hello ma’am. My name's Tom Christopher (TC) and I'm with Major League Baseball. We're talking to neighbors of our umpiring crew. Just want to make sure we have the right people for the job. Mind if I ask you a few questions?

I don't have a lot of time--

TC: Won't take but a few moments. Here, let's just get started. How long have you known Mr. Tschida?

Well, since he and his wife moved in next door. That was quite a while ago. Ten years?

TC: Are they nice neighbors?

Oh yes. Very nice.

TC: No disruptive behavior? Wild parties? Visits from the police?

Oh no. Just normal people.

TC: Have you been in their basement?

Their basement? I don't think so.

TC: Bear with me now. Has Mr. Tschida ever offered you a “poop sack"?

What?

TC: A spliff? A doobie?

I don't—

TC: Marijauna, ma’am.

Marijauna? They're not growing marijuana, if that's what you're asking.

TC: Fine. Has his wife ever stopped by with a swollen, bloodied face and said, "I can't see nuthin. You gotta open my eye. Cut me, Mick."

What? My name's not Mick--

TC: That's a Rocky reference, ma’am. Victims of domestic violence will often use humor to cover up incidents of abuse.

But he doesn't abuse his wife --

TC: This wife of his, has she said that Mr. Tschida regurgitates his food? Stamps the ground while she's folding red towels? Moos plaintively, or possibly with window-rattling violence, during lovemaking?

What on earth --

TC: Side effects of certain performance enhancing injections. Steer hormones, specifically. Doesn’t ring a bell? Fine. Does Mr.Tschida believe in reincarnation?

I haven’t the slightest. Why?

TC: Their's not to reason why. Their's but to do and die.

Excuse me?

TC: A bit of Tennyson, ma’am. The sort of thing that a reincarnated member of the 19th century planter class might drop into casual conversation. Ever hear Mr. Tschida say something like that?

I'm not following you.

TC: I'll cut to the chase then. What are the chances that Mr. Tschida owns slaves?

Um, about one in a billion?

TC: So, you're saying there's a chance?

That's not even funny.

TC: Wasn't meant to be. Has Mr. Tschida ever flown a passenger jet into a building?

A passenger jet? Wouldn't he be dead if he did that?

TC: Technically speaking, yes. We'd be dealing with a zombie then.

A zombie?

TC: A zombie. Your arm. Has he eaten it?

Eaten my arm? You mean, actually eaten my arm?

TC: Yes.

Does it look like it?

TC: Could be a prosthetic.

This is a joke, right?

TC: Ma’am, I wish. Have you heard of Tim Donaghy? He's an NBA referee who bet on games he officiated. We can't allow a Donaghy into our umpire crews. So we're covering all the bases, if you'll pardon the pun.

But -- a zombie? Zombies don't even exist.

TC: Maybe not. Can't be too careful, though. Now then, crop circles. Have they appeared in his backyard?

He doesn't have any crops--

TC: Bright lights? A cigar-shaped craft?

You mean a UFO?

TC: Is Mr. Tschida a pod person?

(stunned silence)

TC: I need you to focus, ma’am. Is Tim Tschida a pod person?

No, he’s not a pod person. What's that helicopter—

TC: Never mind the helicopter. Nothing to see there.

I think I have to go now.

TC: Please don't make me waterboard you, ma’am.

Waterboard? What? What are you doing?

TC: Henderson, secure the witness!

Who's that? What's he doing in my bushes? Wait! Isn't that -- that's Bill Johnson!

TC: No, that's Jim Henderson, ma’am. He's been surveiling the area.

But he's been my mailman for four years!

TC: Deep cover, ma’am.

Now hold on! You can't do this!

TC: Ma’am, I work for a man with the power to contract entire franchises out of existence. I can do anything.

Truck Commercials: Like A Crock

2008-01-21T18:59:00.000-08:00

Televised football with its frequent breaks usually finds the sun of my intellect partially eclipsed by a fast-approaching, truck-commercial induced brain aneurysm. On Sunday, I fear that aneurysm struck as the cognitive equivalent of a global killer. For today I feel compelled to go out and buy a pickup truck.

Not so long ago I believed that I lived in a nation of paved roads. Not anymore. Pickup truck commercials have convinced me that I'll have to drive up and over the Ozarks to get to the grocery store. Probably I'll be hauling something -- a bunch of rocks, or possibly a disabled eighteen-wheeler. Somewhere along the way I'll find myself braking at the maw of a bottomless crevice, that after navigating a gigantic, erector set obstacle course that threatens me with plunging, skyscraper-high steel beams. Carhartt-accessorized men in hardhats will look on. They will cheer me.

But not only men. Admiring women will recognize the strong correlation between the size of my truck and the size of my genetalia. What's more, the wholesome manliness of my vehicle will send my pituitary gland into a compensatory overdrive, flooding my testicles with testosterone-producing hormones. Probably some will gaze at my suddenly splendid physique and impossibly strong chin and mistake me for Fox NFL analyst Howie Long. Of course I will set them straight. Guys capable of slamming shut with authority a door on the bed of a truck hardly require the security of a contrived identity.

It’s pleasant to imagine myself rolling up to my place in a shiny new truck. That rusting Mazda 626 always parked on the street will remind me that some would sacrifice their manhood to the false idol of a superior fuel efficiency. "Poor bastard," I'll mutter, forgetting for the moment, and probably forever, that I drove that car once. And as the sun sets on another star-spangled day, I'll lay my head down pondering a question that has troubled me since the first telecast of this NFL season : am I really getting everything that I need from my cell phone plan?

A Perfect Evening

2007-12-29T20:26:00.000-08:00

I had all of these big plans to start writing here regularly again, but I got sick instead. Shameful. In an attempt to jump-start my productivity, I camped out with a laptop in front of Saturday’s Patriots-Giants Quest for Perfection. Apparently, this game was a big deal…
-----
The Giants hit a deep one to Burress on the second play of the game—an excellent grab. I haven’t even had the chance to figure out which channel I want to watch this thing on. So many choices. Unfortunately, everybody is just using the NFL Network feed, meaning there is no escape from the horror that is Bryant Gumbel. It’s like listening to Kermet the Frog calling a game. Tom Coughlin just wasted a challenge on a pretty obvious incomplete pass, too. Nice work.

We really should have just gotten every network involved here. Think of the possibilities:
Discovery Channel:
Bear Grylls shows you how to survive if you ever find yourself being chased by the Giants’ pass rush. DISCLAIMER: Bear may in fact let his crew take the beating, then take credit for it on camera.
Lifetime:
Instead of showing the game, we get a made-for-TV movie about the trials of Bridget Moynahan’s struggles as a single mother.
MTV:
Pseudo-reality shows about people who kind of like football, and occasionally talk about it, but mostly just spend their time going to crappy clubs and doing embarrassing crap.
VH1:
The Top 50 Plays from tonight’s game, as commented upon by C-list comedians.

New York finishes off an impressive opening drive with a score; 7-0 G-Men. Perhaps we’ll have a game tonight—the Giants are pumped. The Patriots answer with a figgy, after Brady overthrows Moss in the end zone. This next possession for New York is a big one. If they can answer right back with another score, the pressure will be on New England in a hurry.

…or not. Three and out, and the Pats take over at midfield. And just when it looks like the Giants came up with a huge third down stop, a sketchy illegal contact call gives New England a fresh set of downs. That’s the sort of swing that can really change a game. Yikes. The Pats roll down the field, getting a first and goal from the six as the first quarter ticks down. Randy Moss takes a hell of a shot to the head, but returns after a short break…

…just in time to make a spectacular touchdown catch. That score breaks the single-season scoring record (sorry, 1998 Vikings), Brady ties Manning for the single-season passing touchdown record, and Moss ties Rice for the single-season receiving touchdown record. Plus, Moss gets a 15-yard unsportsmanlike, apparently because Kool-Ade Maroney decided to dance a bit. Alright, then. Quite the eventful play: 10-7 Pats.

Zounds! The Pats have to kick off from their own 15, and the Giants promptly take it to the house. This is going to be fun. Maybe I’ll actually have a reason to watch past halftime—unless, of course, Gumbel drives me to commit capital crimes. Don’t think it can’t happen. Another Gostkowski field goal leaves us at 14-13 Giants, by the way.

Not only are NBC and CBS using the NFLN game feed: they are apparently having to run the same commercials, too. That seems strange. I wonder how the revenue for that gets split up. Did Snickers just have to pay three different networks for that spot? If not, what are NBC and CBS getting out of this? More questions than answers, my friends.

The Giants seem to be taking the bend-don’t-break approach. A potential Brady-to-Moss score bounces off of a New York helmet, so the Pats settle for yet another field goal. 16-14 now, and I’ve discovered the Dave Chappelle Killing Them Softly special running on Comedy Central. Classic. But, I must maintain focus. New York really hasn’t been doing much, when you think about it. New England has wasted a few chances, and that kick return is keeping the Giants close. Easily the most one-sided 16-14 game I’ve seen.

…I should stop saying things like that. The Giants march straight down the field for the score, running a snazzy two-minute drill. 21-16 Giants heading to halftime, and at least I get a Gumbel break.

Back from the half, the Patriots are going to have to wake up soon. They open the half with a punt, and now the Giants are crossing into enemy territory. Brandon Jacobs is starting to rip off some big chunks of yardage on the ground, and New England is reeling.

Yes sir, real trouble now. A Burress touchdown, and we’re at 28-16. New England looks flat. Well, let me amend that: the New England defense looks flat. Tom Brady is having an excellent game, other than the whole lots-of-field-goals thing. The Pats are headed right down the field, inside the Giants 30. New York is getting a lot of pressure on Brady, but so far the Golden Boy has been able to stand in there.

Ski-U-Mah, kids. Maroney dances in from six yards out, leaving us at 28-23. This is going to come down to the New England defense: if they knock the lead out, the Pats have a good chance. But as long as Eli keeps the Giants moving down the field, Shula will be a happy man...

A change in tactics for New England on the next drive, as they really start to ramp up the pressure on Eli. We cross over into the fourth quarter: Pats ball at about the 25 after a Giants punt, still at 28-23.

The Giants hold this time, and force the punt. 13 minutes left, Pats down 5.

I assume NFLN is trying to make a positive impression on all of the people watching this feed who don’t get the channel. That’s why I’m confused by the existence of this strange mail-bag feature they keep running. Some guy named Dukes keeps popping up to answer viewer e-mail, but it’s the same ones every time. Just so we’re clear: Tom Brady is the MVP, and Bill Parcells knows something about football. We’ll be reminded of this another half-dozen times, I’m sure.

The Giants are not exactly milking this clock. A fumbled snap, a dropped pass, and now a pre-snap timeout. They have the chance to really put the screws to the Pats here, but aren’t taking advantage. Their third-down pass comes up short, so the punt goes back to New England.

Whoa boy. Brady had Moss wide open waaaaaaaaaay downfield, but the throw is short and Moss doesn’t manage to haul it in. Of course, on the next play, Brady drills Moss down the sidelines for the touchdown. Just an incredible sequence. Records fall, and Giants Stadium gets very quiet. Maroney runs in the conversion: 31-28 Pats, with 11 minutes left. I can’t get over those back-to-back Moss throws. Scary stuff. Can Eli respond? The Giants looked pretty bad on their last possession.

Somewhere on the kick return, there was a personal foul on the Giants that push them back around the 20. No one can quite figure out why, though. A quick holding penalty, too, on a nice first-down run. Are the Giants self-destructing?

The answer appears to be yes: Ellis Hobbs picks off Manning. He does a nice job getting both feet down, too. The Pats have a chance to work up some breathing room, and Brady is playing well.

On third and 11, Brady dumps one off to Kevin Faulk, and Faulk breaks a few tackles on his way to a first down. That’s a huuuuuuuge play, and New England is creeping inside the red zone now. Another third-and-long conversion to Welker, inside the 10 now with five minutes left. Welker has 11 catches tonight.

Allow me to gloat: Ski-U-Mah! Another Maroney touchdown. 38-28 now, and the Giants are searching for signs of life.

We reach the two-minute warning with the Giants inside the Pats 20. They’re really taking their sweet time, though. Very odd. They let a solid 30 seconds tick off between plays just now, bringing us all the way down to 1:18, second and goal from the 4. They eventually get the score to a wide-open Burress (the safety fell down in the end zone), so we’ve got a game again. 38-35, with 1:04 left. Cheers for the onside kick!

Pats recover. With that, it’s game over and 16-0. Now the pressure really starts. The Giants looked pretty good tonight, actually. It’ll be interesting to see if they carry that into the playoffs. That’s not really the story here, though…

GM 2 GM

2007-12-09T07:02:00.000-08:00

A recent item in the Pioneer Press contained this tidbit:

"We've had a number of talks on a lot of different fronts," Smith said.

Those talks, which apparently never resumed Thursday because most teams cleared out early, will resume by phone, e-mail and text messages over the next few weeks.

Naturally, this got us very curious as to what exactly goes on when two GMs text each other. And, thanks to a loophole in FISA, Batgirl was able to obtain this super secret transcript of one such conversation between new Twins GM Bill Smith and the Red Sox's Theo Epstein, which she posts here for your edification.

[Need help? click here]

TE: yo homes its theO
BS: sup sk8er
TE: sup newbie
BS: did u c da rumor bout johan 2 oak 4 dan haren
TE: LOL!!! haren is so lamo
BS: sing out louise!
TE: so wuz da 411
BS: ?
TE: wuz it gunna take 2 get dis deal done
BS: ok we need 1 mlb reD playa & 2 A-level prospects & 1 nice (_(_)
TE: ?
BS: we lost torii if we lose johan we need a nice (_(_)
TE: how nice? not givin u Tek
BS: mayB not A-level (_(_) at least B+ (_(_)
TE: & whoz got B+-level (_(_) IYHO?
BS: ellsbury
TE: 2 things retardo montalban. thing 1: ells has A-level (_(_) ells is 6 tool playa
BS: ?
TE: (_(_) is 6th tool
BS: u a tool
TE: thing 2: u not gettin ells
BS: no deal den no johan no kkkkkkkkkkkkkk
TE: no ells
BS: gotta go txt cashman
TE: ok ok how bout coco coco has A+ (_(_)
BS: stop tryin 2 gimme coco
TE: come on johan 4 coco & his A++++++ (_(_)
BS: how bout johan 4 yr mum?
TE: lv my mum outta dis
BS: ^ yurs
TE: wuz wrong wit coco
BS: u <3 coco so bad
TE: byte me
BS: cocoz yr BF mmmm coco xxxxxx
TE: shuddup bzzzzch
BS: oh one sec BRB
TE: ok
BS: sorry terry ryan wuz here wants job back
TE: OMG! wud u say
BS: i sez screw u baldy da bilzzzzzerz runnin dis show
TE: no u didnt
BS: did 2
TE: OMG! LMFAO!
BS: gotta go project runwayz on
TE: ooooh will give you ells 4 heidi klum ;-)
BS: ha u wish! c u
TE: l8er t8er

False Starts Audit: Playoff Push Edition

2007-12-02T18:44:00.000-08:00

Predictions are tough; that’s what I’m learning this year. A combination of hubris and boredom led me to forecast the 2007 NFL season a few months ago, if you recall. Now that we’re coming down the home stretch, I thought this was a good time to check in with those picks, to see how stupid I really am. Come with me. . .

AFC East:

The prediction: Patriots, Jets, Bills, Dolphins
Currently: Patriots, Bills, Jets, Dolphins

It didn’t take a genius to pick New England out of the East. I can’t really pat myself on the back there. The question now is whether or not 19-0 is attainable; that will come down to the Pats’ running game. They’ve really gotten away from running Maroney; if they’re just saving him for the playoffs, I think they’ll be fine. If there’s something else going on there, New England is quite vulnerable.

I mixed around the Jets and Bills, although I wasn’t very high on either of them. The Bills might sneak into one of the Wild Card spots, but overall I’ll take this set of picks.

AFC North:

The prediction: Bengals, Ravens, Steelers, Browns
Currently: Steelers, Browns, Bengals, Ravens

This one. . . was not as pretty. Yeesh. I had some decent things to say about Cleveland, but thought things wouldn’t come together for them until at least 2008. I also didn’t see Derek Anderson coming at all. Whoops. I messed up on the Steelers as well; in the original preview, I said that the three top teams in this division were all good, but Ben Roethlisberger would hold them back. Wrong.

For some reason, I predicted that Steve McNair would regress, but the Ravens would finish second. Uh, dumb? And I really thought the Bengals would just score all over everybody. Rudi Johnson has been hurt, but still. This was an ugly division for me.

AFC South:

The Prediction: Jaguars, Colts, Titans, Texans
Currently: Colts, Jaguars, Titans, Texans

This one would have looked really good, if the Jags could have stolen Sunday’s game against Indy. D’oh. Of course, I was a major Byron Leftwich proponent, and we all know how that turned out (not well). Indy’s defense has not been the major weakness I thought it would be, and they’re sitting pretty at 10-2. Oh well. I was too harsh on the Texans, also. I ripped them hard, and they’ve actually been pretty decent. So, lesson learned.

AFC West:

The Prediction: Broncos, Chargers, Raiders, Chiefs
Currently: Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, Chiefs

Both of the bottom two teams here are pretty stinky overall. The Chiefs are especially bad; at least there’s a glimmer of a future in Oakland. Oh, and: surprise! Larry Johnson got hurt!

The Chargers are pretty junky. I blasted Norv Turner, and he’s largely lived up to his billing. I overestimated the Broncos, however. Especially on defense, where they look awful. This season has raised some questions re: Mike Shanahan’s general competency. Kick to Devin Hester much? Sigh. . . This one is probably over: the Broncos are reeling after a couple of ugly losses, so the Chargers should cruise to a nine- or ten-win season and the playoff spot.

NFC West:

The Prediction: 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals
Currently: Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers, Rams

Yee-ouch. That San Fran pick looks pretty nasty right now, doesn’t it. The lesson: never, ever think Alex Smith is competent. Frank Gore has not exactly been the difference-maker I said he’s be, either. The Seahawks are boring and mediocre, but that’s enough to get the job done in this horrendous division.

The Cardinals are making a little noise, especially after Sunday’s win against the Browns. Sitting at 6-6 now, they have a real shot at a Wild Card spot. We’ll see if Kurt Warner can keep all of his body parts attached. . .

NFC South:

The Prediction: Saints, Panthers, Bucs, Falcons
Currently: Bucs, Panthers, Saints, Falcons

Whither the Saints? They’re making me look pretty bad, here. I still think Tampa Bay sucks, but someone has to win this thing. The Saints occasionally show signs of life, then they do something stupid like losing to the Bucs on Sunday. That was a big loss, and probably put a fork in New Orleans. Carolina continues to be mediocre at best, and the Falcons are awful. At least I got a couple of these picks right.

NFC East:

The Prediction: Eagles, Redskins, Cowboys, Giants
Currently: Cowboys, Giants, Redskins, Eagles

I butchered this one about as badly as I did the AFC North. I ripped on Tony Romo, and declared Donovan McNabb would “play at a high level.” Oh. I pretty much screwed this whole thing up: the Giants haven’t collapsed (yet), the Redskins aren’t looking too hot for a Wild Card, the Cowboys are the class of the conference, and the Eagles suck. Just another day at the office.

NFC North:

The Prediction: Bears, Packers, Vikings, Lions
Currently: Packers, Lions, Vikings, Bears

This one should look a little better a few weeks from now. The Vikings and Bears should blow past Detroit; the Lions are going in the tank. I thought the Packers would be pretty good, but I didn’t expect 10-2. I thought Rex Grossman would blow Chicago’s season, but not until the playoffs. I thought Adrian Peterson would be the Purple Jesus, but the lack of a passing game would cost the Vikings. So, plenty of half-rights and almost-goods. Compared to some of my more brutal divisions, I won’t argue too much.

Super Bowl:

The Prediction: Patriots over Eagles
The New Prediction: Patriots over Packers

Ugh, that Eagles pick just keeps twisting the knife. I actually think that a Packers/Cowboys rematch could go to Green Bay; Favre put the Pack in an immediate hole on Thursday before getting hurt, and if a tidier first quarter that could have been a very different game. I really hope they meet in the playoffs, just to get another taste. And, like I said earlier, if the Pats can run the ball they’ll go to the Super Bowl. Homeboy.

Team Chemistry, Delmon Young Style: a reenactment

2007-11-29T19:47:00.000-08:00

The whole town is ablaze with talk of the blockbuster Delmon Young trade, sometimes quite literally. In case you missed it, Batgirl at Gameday brings you a reenactment, using Legos.

As Star Tribune Twins reporters LaVelle E. Neal III and Joe Christensen head to work in the morning…

Singing together: "Hi ho, hi ho, it's off to work we go..."

"So, Joe C., what do you think of the big trade?"

"Oh, I don't know, III. I mean, Delmon Young's great, but I'm afraid without a charismatic veteran player to show him how things are done around here, he might go astray. He threw a bat at an ump! And our big hitters aren't exactly...well….I mean, I really wonder if our clubhouse is up to a guy like that."

"No, Joe, it's going to be all right. Just watch this footage I've collected on my PSYCHIC iPHONE! You'll see what I mean…"

Peering into LaVelle's PSYCHIC iPHONE, we see into the Twins clubhouse….

As the Carpenters' Greatest hits play, Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer, and Joe Mauer gather for some quiet introspection, when their new teammate arrives.

"Hey, guys! I'm Delmon Young! I'm so happy to be a Twin!"

"Hey, Delmon!" said Cuddyer, "Nice uniform! We were just having a stoic-off. Do you want to join us?"
Morneau, singing quietly: Ahhhh,ahahaaaaaaa....Close to Youuuuuuuuu.
"Man," said Young, "you guys are dull. Come on, I'll show you how to have a good time!"

Outside the Dome...

Singing: Whistle While You Work...

"Hey, random umpire, come here, into the clubhouse, I want to show you something…"
"Oh, sure Delmon!" said the ump. "Let's go!"

"Okay, guys. Now, stand here, and I want you to throw your bats at him."
"What?" said all three at once.
"Hey!" said the ump.
"Shut up and take it like a man!" said Young.

"I don't know," says Mauer, quietly.
"That seems like a lot of energy," says Morneau, laconically.
"It's not nice to throw things," said Cuddyer, shyly.

"Man. You guys are sooooooo lame! Come on, give it a shot."

"Well….I guess we should make him feel welcome," said Mauer. "That's what my mom would say to do."

"I'm sorry, Mr. Umpire, Sir!" squeaked Mauer, as he threw.

"THAT WAS AWESOME," yelled Mauer, jumping up and down.

"I'VE NEVER FELT SO ALIVE," yelled Morneau, tearing off his shirt.

"AOOOOOOOOOOOW!" howled Cuddy, smearing warpaint all over his body.

"COME ON BOYS, LET'S TEAR THIS PLACE UP!"

Out on the streets...

Back at the clubhouse...

"Phew, thanks Delmon Young! Now, boys, let's go play some baseball!"

And back in LaVelle's car...

"Wow," said Joe C.. "I see what you mean, III. Finally, we've gotten the immature uncontrollable hotheaded player we need!"
"You said it, Joe. You said it."

Bleacher Bums + Economics = Fail

2007-11-28T01:54:00.000-08:00

David Zingler grumbles about the Twins moves from the State sponsored MPR blog The Bleacher Bums' post Pohlad has Played Us:

"First, they dealt Luis Castillo to the Mets for some low-level minor leaguers. Next, they gave free-agent-to-be Torii Hunter a low-ball offer that no player in his situation would even consider taking. Hunter, of course, bolted to LA last week. Now they are shopping Johan Santana to the highest bidding, big market team."

If Zingler is going to make agruements against public financing of sports stadiums, he could at least pick intelligent ones (try Andrew Zimbalist's critique that entertainment dollars are a fixed part of people's budgets, so new stadiums do not increase business in their metropolitan areas, they just move spending around from other entertainment venues like restaurants, movie theathers, concert halls, ect).

Castillo was a free agent come season's end and not one that would have gotten the Twins first or sandwich round compensation. He has a history of leg problems and the Twins will be playing on turf until their new stadium opens. No team was going to give the Twins a huge package of prospects for a short rental of Luis Castillo, the Twins were out of contention, and the team felt good about Alexi Casilla moving forward. The Castillo trade was a good thing, regardless of the Twins' finances.

The Twins were again wise to let Hunter go. The Twins and Hunter weren't that far off on his yearly salary, but yearly salary is never the problem with MLB contracts. As all MLB contracts are guaranteed, it is never the yearly amount and it is always the length of contracts that kills teams. It doesn't matter how much money a team has, Hunter is going to be a waste of resources during the last two years of his contract. He'll be 36 and 37 and with both his offense and defense in decline with age, will probably need to move to a corner outfield spot where offensive expectations are higher. The Angels, whatever their payroll, will being paying Hunter more than he's worth and squandering resources (including roster space) that could be used elsewhere to improve their onfield product in 2011 and 2012. I'm glad it is the Angels and not the Twins doing so.

The Twins botched the Hunter situation last July, when they either failed to confirm they couldn't sign Hunter to a three year deal, or knew as much and still didn't move him for prospects greater than the late first round pick they were lucky to receive (if Hunter had chosen to sign with other suitors like the Rangers or White Sox the Twins would have only gotten a sandwich pick).

Zingler goes on to critcize the Twins for shopping Santana to the highest bidder. What's the proper socalist route here, David, shop Santana to the bidder with the greatest need? The Twins should take whatever the Royals or Pirates say they can afford to pay? While Santana is a class above the likes of Carlos Zambrano and Barry Zito, with the uniquely high injury risk that comes along with all pitchers (the human arm isn't constructed to throw overhand) and again taking note that all contracts in baseball are guaranteed for their entire length, locking up Santana to a similar long term deal carries a lot of risk.

Picking up prospects that the Twins can pay league minimum for three years (or possibly two years if said prospects become Super-Two eligible) and then less than market value for the three years of arbitration that follow is a much safer route. The Twins don't invest as large a portion of their resources while the prospects are making league minimum, and as arbitration is a series of one-year contracts, the team can cuit bait on any injured or underperforming players they'd aquire in a deal, and still invest the money they would have spent on Santana's extension elsewhere.

But that's not the worst part--we don't even know who the Twins could get for Santana yet. Zingler is ripping the Twins for exploring their options? Some of the trade rumors have been laughably one-sided. If the Twins could get Kershaw, Kemp and LaRoche from the Dodgers the front office would have to be completely incompetent to turn the deal down (although the Dodgers front office would have to be equally as incompetent to make such an offer for a one-year rental of Santana).

Zingler continues:

"And, the one bargain-basement player the Twins have acquired this off-season – Craig Monroe – will likely be released if he doesn’t take a pay cut."

Craig Monroe needs to take a pay cut. He isn't worth $4 million coming off a season in which he hit .219/.264/.373. As my editor the Twins Geek pointed out, it was actually a creative deal by new GM Bill Smith as the team avoided committing any resources to Monroe in the trade prior to Monroe accepting a reasonable salary. If Monroe doesn't sign something close to a $2 million contract, the Twins don't lose much of anything. How is this a problem, David?

Zingler never mentions how the Twins derive their payroll, either. The team claims they spend a fixed portion of their projected budget for the coming season (if memory serves 51%). Zingler could have explicitly argued that (a) this percentage isn't high enough, or (b) that taking the Twins at their word that their projected $75 million budget is actually 51% of their projected revenues is foolish, but instead all Zingler offers is tired class warrior griping.

Zingler continues:

"The way things are going; the Twins will be less competitive when they enter Pohlad Park in 2010 than they have been the last 7 years in the Metrodome. Let’s also remember that Twins tickets will be scarcer and more expensive and out-state fans will be turned away by the dozens every April because of rainouts. But, I bet those luxury suites will be nice – Cambria countertops and all."

That the Twins will be less competitive in 2010 is pure speculation, and a bit of an underhanded move by Zingler in cherry-picking their recent run of success to hold up against the shorter term 2010 season, as the Twins' claim is that the new park will improve competitiveness in the longterm. The new ballpark will increase the Twins revenues and increased revenues baseball-wide are trickling down to the players and increasing the size of contracts the league over (Carlos Silva is going to make $44 million over four years at a minimum this offseason).

The real question is whether the Twins' competitiveness in relation to other franchises with voters dumb enough to finance stadiums is really a problem that the taxpayers need to solve. Or if Minnesotans have an unalienable right to competitive professional baseball (or one to theatre, emphasis on the "re") when it requires a multi-million dollar public expenditure from their fellow taxpayers. Not if it is alright that the Twins put expensive luxury boxes in their stadium.

Zingler is again wrong when he complains about Twins tickets being significantly more scare come 2010 (with the exception of playoff games when the Twins remove their outfield curtain in the Metrodome, but the curtain was only up during the regular season because no one wanted the seats they covered). The supply of tickets will be about the same, which means the Twins aren't imposing the scarcity. The public demand is going to go up. The tickets are going to be more expensive because of increased demand. The increased price will ration the tickets.

Joe Thingvall of Curlz and Curveballs weighs in on the post's comments with the same sort of nonsense:

"The seats will sell to brokers who will double the price the first couple of
years, so who cares that real fans will be kept away."

Brokers can't double the price of tickets. Increased demand from baseball fans can. And the idea that "real fans" will be kept away by increased prices is flawed for two reasons:

1. It assumes wealthy fans aren't real fans, or that the clients and employees of corporate season ticket holders aren't real fans (not that the latter are the types of tickets likely to be bought up by brokers in large numbers and scalped).

2. Real fans and fans of all kinds are going to be kept away by increased demand regardless of the price anyway. Even if the Twins gave tickets away for free in 2010 in equal numbers to every fan that wanted to attend games, the more fans that want to attend, the fewer number of games each fan will see. With an improved facility, everyone will see fewer games at the ballpark, especially during the first three-to-five years of the new Twins park when new stadiums have their honeymoon period.

Rationing tickets by price will most likely allow "real fans" to see more Twins games, as only those people that place a very high value on live, outdoor Major League baseball will shell out for the increased expense of attending a Twins game, leaving the casual fans to head back to the movie theaters, restaurants and bowling allies that Zimbalist writes about.

What Thingvall is really complaining about is either (a) that he shouldn't be subject to economic law just like everybody else and doesn't want to place a premium on attending Twins games at an improved stadium even when other people will or (b) that because public money is involved, the price mechanism shouldn't be used to ration tickets. I'll leave it to Lew Rockwell to dispell the latter myth (Joe, the solution here is to remove public money from the equation, not get rid of the price mechanism).

There is no valid economic defense of publically financed sports stadiums (you'd have to be dumb enough to take MLB's economists at their word). All we're left with is the claim that having a Major League team in town with a modern outdoor park is a Public Good. The fact that there will be a huge spike in demand for Twins tickets seems to confirm this if you're willing to ignore any kind of cost/benefit comparison, which is still difficult to do even if you want to with fuzzy things like happiness and quality of life replacing any concrete metrics. And at the end of the day, if you work for MPR, do you really want to bring up cost/benefit comparisons for Public Goods?

I've met and know plenty of "I don't care what it costs" Twins fans. It is to be expected that proponents are willing to vote for their pet public expenditures when they know they won't bare a proportional cost. It takes two to tango and a large segment of Twins fans got exactly what they wanted, the rest of us be damned. Pinning this all on Pohlad's greed ignores the greed of a large segment of Minnesotans. And all of this, all of it, ignores the fact that a stadium doesn't change local media revenues, which is a huge part of why teams Zingler points out, like the Yankees, have larger revenues than the Twins do. The Twins will never have local television and radio contracts like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc.

If Pohlad played you, it is because you are a rube.

Bigger the Better

2007-10-11T01:20:00.000-07:00

My editor, the Twins Geek, ponders the value of the postseason:

I myself have spit out similar thoughts often [that the MLB postseason is a crapshoot compared to the 162-game regular season], especially given the Twins postseason futility. But this time I was suddenly struck by something. Namely, that nobody other than baseball fans ever say this.
For instance, the Spurs record last year was much worse than the Mavericks, but the Spurs won the NBA championship, the Mavs went home early, and nobody doubts who was the better team. (Though, I'll admit, Phoenix was a different story.) In the NFL, if a 12-4 team beats a 14-2 team in the Super Bowl – a single game - nobody tries to claim the 12-4 team was better. And when Anaheim marched through the Stanley Cup playoffs last year, they were acclaimed by all sides as a clearly superior team to emulate, despite having the third most points in the regular season.

With respect to the NFL, in addition to their 16 game schedule, don't forget about their scheduling for parity. Baseball's unbalanced schedule and differing interleague matchups aren't nearly as bad. It's entirely possible that the 12-4 team is just as good as the 14-2 team. Just the fact that a team can go 12-4 in a league with as much artificial parity as the NFL should tip you off--that's a .750 winning percentage.

A baseball team with a .750 winning percentage would win 121.5 games and shatter the 116-46 record tied by the 2001 Mariners. 14-2? 141.75 wins...

Do you remember that horrible Forbes article about the best general managers in sports that used a direct comparison of differentials in winning percentage from the previous GM's tenure as the basis for ranking GMs across different sports? Kevin McHale was first and no MLB GM appeared until Billy Beane came in at 26th. McHale is no more better than every GM in baseball than a 16-game or 81-game schedule is at separating the best teams over a 162-game schedule.

The Twins Geek asks:

Why are we tempted to ignore the results when the best play against the best?
There are three obvious answers. Either:
1) There is something inherently different about baseball OR
2) Baseball is right and all the other sports are wrong OR
3) The other sports are right and baseball is wrong.

I'll let Thomas Boswell answer for the merits of the 162-game schedule. From his two-decade old Why Is Baseball So Much Better Than Football?:

46. Parity scheduling. How can the NFL defend the fairness of deliberately giving easier schedules to weaker teams and harder schedules to better teams? Just to generate artificially improved competition? When a weak team with a patsy schedule goes 10-6, while a strong defending division champ misses the playoffs at 9-7, nobody says boo. Baseball would have open revolt at such a nauseatingly cynical system.
21. Having 162 games a year is 10.125 times as good as having 16.

And just for fun:

94. You'll never see a woman in a fur coat at a baseball game.
95. You'll never see a man in a fur coat at a baseball game.

e-mail Exchange

2007-10-09T23:41:00.001-07:00

Taking notice of the trade rumor that Jonah Keri and Charley Walters have mentioned, I sent a Dodgers-rooting friend of mine an e-mail.

Nolan,
Kemp, Kershaw and LaRoche for Santana... would you want that to go down as a Dodgers fan? The other rumor I've heard is that if the Mets can sign A-Rod they'll offer the Twins Reyes, Pelfrey and Gomez for Santana. I'd take either deal as a Twins fan, although I think I prefer the Dodgers rumor.

Kyle

His response:

Kyle,
I wouldn't do that in a million years - I wouldn't give up that much talent for anyone and certainly not for the privilege of paying someone $20m/yr. Just crazy. Frankly, I wouldn't trade Kershaw for Santana straight up.

On another note, I'm in Korea right now and just took in the first game of the Korean playoffs - Hanwha v. Samsung. I'd put the level of play somewhere in the A spectrum. A few thoughts:

1) Defense was excellent. Great footwork, great hands. Arms weren't great. A number of great catches and great plays. However...

2) The dimensions of the stadium were a joke - 300 down both lines, 345/350 to dead center. You can tell that a field that small totally changes the game - definitely makes defense easier for the outfielders - there aren't any gaps! Plus, the two home runs that were hit would either be line outs or doubles.

3) Hitters had no power.

4) Pitching. Not one pitch broke 90 mph, but the control was impeccable. Very few three ball counts and only two walks.

5) The crowd was insane.

Anyway, it was cool. I'd recommend it.

Nolan

Seeing as the last time the Twins made a blockbuster trade was? Does the Knoblauch deal count? I'm not getting my hopes up. But on the other hand, Ned Colletti isn't nearly as intelligent as Nolan...

For All the Female Phillies Fans

2007-10-04T15:47:00.001-07:00

SBG First Annual Convention

2007-09-22T21:59:00.000-07:00

Friday night at work I get the following e-mail from our esteemed editor Twins Geek:

Hey guys,

If any of you get this tomorrow morning, I've texted our lead vendor Bernie to supply 20 GDs to you all for tomorrow's game. (I hope his mobile shows text messages.) If one of you could tell him who you are and pick them up in my absence, I'd appreciate it. I'll be coaching my daughter's soccer team at that time. Thanks.

Sincerely,
Twins Geek

Tomorrow morning? Wha... ? Why would I need 20 GameDays? I love the program but isn't one enough? What's going down? (It turns out Twins Geek is sincere enough to send maddeningly vague e-mails, but not sincere enough to answer any follow-up questions they produce).

Fortunately, I find help on our mothersite MNGameDay.com, and the blogsphere guide leads me to a post about the First Anual SBG Convention. I figure this must be what Twins Geek is talking about, and even if not, it looks like fun.

Not wanting to crash the party alone, I decided it was a great opportunity to wake John Sharkey up at 8:30 in the morning on a Saturday. The phone rings five times but no answer. I leave a message. Then I think about leaving 20 messages, but decide against it. (Why won't you talk to me John!?!) Sharkey ends up calling me back in time for me to pick him up on my way down to Huberts. We find parking and head out in search of the elusive "Bernie".

Hey, Twins Geek, guess what? I don't think Bernie's phone does receive text messages, because when Sharkey and I introduced ourselves, dropped your name, and asked to be comped 20 issues it didn't look like he was given any advance warning. To him it looked more like we were a couple of scam artists trying to make off with $40 of merchandise (to be fair, Sharkey does give off a constant shady vibe). But, Bernie plays it cool and programs in tow we head out for Huberts.

From there, I'll leave it up to Stick and Ball Guy to tell the narrative of his first convention. You can check out his Convention Report over at the World's Greatest Online Magazine, a title we'll allow him to hold because because GameDay is a print publication.

I'm looking forward to the Second Annual SBG Convention.

People in attendance:
~~Twins Geek (GameDay)~~
Kyle Eliason (GameDay)
John Sharkey (GameDay)
Stick and Ball Guy (SBG Nation)
StatFreak101 (SBG Nation)
Moss (SBG Nation)
Andrew (SBG Nation)
Q (Honorary SBG Nation)
Carter Hayes & Finance (Carriage Return)
Aaron Gleeman (AaronGleeman.com)
Scot & Emily (Coffeyville Whirlwind)
Will Young (Will's Title Is Too Long)

Post-season Gambling

2007-09-22T00:36:00.001-07:00

I'm the newest addition to the pop culture/sports blog The 'Verse over at The Distributed Republic. I've got a post up about which teams I'll be wagering on this October and why:

http://www.distributedrepublic.net/archives/2007/09/22/snakes-and-saints

The Ausmus Effect

2007-09-20T01:26:00.000-07:00

Here's an illustrated version of the widely observed Ausmus Effect as it relates to the Twins:

He ain't the second coming of Brooks Robinson or Bill Mazeroski.

Who Doesn't Like LEN3?

2007-09-19T02:42:00.000-07:00

My editor's post Killing the Messenger is worth a read. It deals with Ron Gardenhire's announcement that Nick Punto will be the starting second baseman next season in light of Alexi Cassila's non-development this season.

It's hard for any outsider to assess the job a manager does motivating his team. If Gardenhire's announcement is a motivational ploy to keep Cassila focused this off-season, I give the Twins' skipper the benefit of the doubt. I really hope this is the case, because there is absolutely no other reason to make this announcement in September. Coming from the man that has turned the number two spot in the Twins' order into a black hole of Big Bang magnitude, it does raise doubts.

If it's not a motivational ploy, this is why smart baseball writers like Christina Kahrl knock the Twins for hosing the small things. This level of complacency from a team that's often in contention is unacceptable. It's hard to see how Punto could be worse next year, but the Twins brass should be ashamed of themselves if they enter spring training with him as the clear Plan A at second base. It's enough to make fans pine for the days of Augie Ojeda (hey, he's managed to put up a positive VORP for the Snakes this season).

American league second basemen as a whole have hit .284/.340/.417 this season. Punto has a very, very long way to go before he's worthy of a starting job even with the reduced offensive expectations in moving from third to second base. It's important to remember that Nick Punto's "good" season wasn't really good. It was average. In 2006 he hit .290/.352/.373, which means he got on base a tiny bit more than second baseman as a whole and hit for a little less power.

The Twins have a hole at second base and they've got more than seven months to find a creative solution. It's a situation that requires patience from fans. I have to assume Gardenhire's comments are to light a fire under Cassila, so let's not be too hasty and take Gardenhire's words at face value. But eff him, Smith and the horses they rode in on if nothing changes between now and April.

Race In Baseball: Follow Up

2007-09-11T15:36:00.000-07:00

Vikes Geek wrote in the comments section under my last post:

It would be interesting to see the numbers for "white" players in MLB versus the general population. Based on the logic of forming inner-city camps to attract inner-city kids (I think that's actually code for a more specific sub-set of kids), maybe there's an even stronger argument for setting up baseball camps in the rural heartland.

From the same 2006 report that cited African-Americans as 8.4% of the Major League population, whites were reported to compose 59.5%. I read through the report and while it, like Gary Sheffield, distinguished between black domestic-born and black international-born players, I couldn't find any evidence that it distinguished between white domestic-born and white international-born players in Major League Baseball. The following white international-born players active in 2006 might slightly skew the results when directly comparing percentages to the 2000 Census data:

Australia
Justin Huber - DH (KC)
Peter Moylan - RP (ATL)

Canada
Jason Bay - OF (PIT)
Eric Bedard - SP (BAL)
Ryan Braun - RP (KC)
Rheal Cormier - RP (TOR/PHI)
Jessie Crain - RP (MIN)
Ryan Dempster - RP (CHC)
Jeff Francis - SP (COL)
Eric Gange - RP (LAD)

England
Phil Stockman - RP (ATL)

Indonesia
Tom Mastny - RP (CLE)

Total - 12

So, if we remove the above 12 players from the 707 white players cited by the report, we get 695, which is 58.5% of the 1188 player pool cited by the report.

The 2000 Census lists 71.5% of the American population as White. With 71% of Major League Baseball players being born in America, that means we'd expect 50.8% of all players to be whites born in America.

So, to answer Vikes Geek's question, there were around 91 more white, American born players in MLB in 2006 than we'd expect based off of the percentage of whites in America.

How Many Black Players Are Optimal?

2007-09-11T03:14:00.001-07:00

After recently reading this article, and thinking back to some of the interviews given by Torii Hunter this season, I did some quick googling.

The 2000 Census lists African-Americans as 12.9% of the total population. A press release from MLB lists the percentage of foreign born players in MLB at 29.0%. That would mean we'd expect 9.1% of Major League players to be African-American? The aforementioned article mentions that African-Americans constitute 8.5% of all Major League players. As the difference between 9.1% and 8.5% in a pool of 842 is only 5 players, aren't things proportional? Is the issue that there is no longer a disproportionate number of African-American players as in years past?

Criticism of the development money spent by Major League teams in Latin America when compared to the money spent in America's inner cities seems misguided to me as it is the result of the Rule 6 Draft excluding Latin American prospects (save for those in Puerto Rico if memory serves). Development academies in Latin America are run by individual teams, and those teams are much more likely to sign the prospectus produced by their own academies.

It has been suggested that Major League Baseball, as a collective, fund development academies in America's inner cities so the costs would be shared among all 30 teams, which would get rid of any problems with players from such academies entering the Rule 6 Draft. But if the slice of African-American players is very nearly the same size as the slice of African Americans in the general population, does major league baseball really need to?

There is speculation that the influx of talent from Asia will end the Rule 6 Draft anyway. With higher priced players falling in the draft due to "signability" concerns and teams not able to trade draft picks, the draft doesn't create much parity as it stands now anyway. This could be good for baseball on a global scale as it would potentially allow an exchange of talent between America and Asia and Latin America so that professional leagues in other countries could field a level of play equal to the Major Leagues.

Different time zones and the logistics of teams flying all over the world make the idea of, say, a MLB franchise in Tokyo, Seoul or Caracas seem unlikely even in the distant future. But some sort of configuration of competitive national leagues and a huge emphasis placed on the World Baseball Classic seems sort of plausible.

I'm not sure how to wrap this rambling post up. I guess it looks like the world is starting to push MLB to an equilibrium of sorts, and it will be interesting to see how the world's premiere league responds.

False Starts Kickoff Edition: NFC North

2007-09-08T22:26:00.000-07:00

It’s a beautiful morning, isn’t it? Birds are chirping, the grass is green, and large men are bashing into each other while wearing plastic armor. After a Thursday-night taste, the NFL gets into the swing of things today with a full slate of action. Even better, I have managed to get the final division preview up in time! So as you settle in for a day on the couch, here’s the action-packed conclusion to the False Starts previews: the NFC North.

======

The dictated-from-on-high order of finish for the 2007 NFC North:

4. Detroit Lions

How good is Calvin Johnson? Answering that question will very likely be the only reason to watch the 2007 Lions, because aside from their new first-rounder there isn’t much on this roster. A particularly horrendous offensive line, and sub-par defense, and a questionable running game all will do their part to ensure yet another crappy Lions season.

The Lions traded their best defensive player (cornerback Dre’ Bly) to Denver for two lesser players who will in theory fill a pair of needs. Running back Tatum Bell never fit into the Bronco running system, and Detroit is hoping the speedy Bell will be able to hold down the starting spot in Mike Martz’s offense. Bell has always seemed to struggle late in games (he isn’t a big man by any means) and has had fumble issues, but he’s also shown flashes of supreme talent. He’s the starter, at least until Kevin Jones’s foot heals.

George Foster, the other part of the Bly trade, slides into the right tackle spot. That at least shows that Lions management is aware of their horrible offensive line, but I’d be surprised if Foster is really the answer. He’s a decent enough player, but far from dominant. This line needs “dominant.” The rest of their starters range from mediocre (Jeff Backus) to overwhelmed (Dominic Raiola). The offensive line will hold back what could be a pretty nifty passing attack.

Roy Williams has comfortably established himself as an elite wideout, and Mike Furrey came out of nowhere last season to provide QB Jon Kitna with a respectable #2. When you throw Calvin Johnson into the mix, you’ve got a recipe for a damn fine passing game. Kitna played fairly well, all things considered, last season, and if he has a running game and time in the pocket he should be able to get the ball around to his weapons. That’s a pretty big “if”. . . .

You could do worse at defensive tackle than the trio of Shaun Rogers, Cory Redding, and Shaun Cody. They give Detroit a solid up-the-middle presence. Kalimba Edwards had a poor 2006 at end; he’ll be joined by ex-Buc DeWayne White. The Lions linebackers struggle with health (I’m looking at you, Boss Bailey), and they don’t really have a decent starting MLB. (Paris Lenin won that job in camp.) SS Kenoy Kennedy is a solid, but aging player, and he’s joined by rookie FS Gerald Alexander. Both safeties will be plenty busy cleaning up the mess left over by the linebacking and cornerback groups. With any luck, Matt Millen will finally lose his job this season, and the Lions will be able to start building a real team again.

3. Minnesota Vikings

The 2007 Minnesota Vikings would have no problem winning the 1948 NFL championship. Unfortunately, the modern game involves frequent use of this “forward pass” doohickey that all the kids love so much, and the Horns just don’t have the players.

The running game could be a lot of fun, unless opponents start creeping ten guys into the box (which, at this point, seems likely). The Purple Jesus is an immediate impact player, and Chester Taylor is no slouch himself. If the Vikings can find a good rhythm in their HB rotation, they have a potent combo.

Those ten-man fronts are going to make things tough, unfortunately. Maybe Tarvaris Jackson has a bright future, and maybe not, but in either case he’s not going to give you much this season. The learning curve will be steep, and the Vikings don’t really have anything behind him in case he falters. Until the Vikes prove otherwise, opponents will just stack the line of scrimmage and chuckle when a Jackson pass misses Troy Williamson by five yards (or hits Williamson in the mitts).

The run defense was, of course, outstanding last season. That shouldn’t change in 2007; the Brothers Williams at defensive tackle will see to that. Pat and Kevin give the Vikings an outstanding pair of run defenders up the middle, but unfortunately neither man really provides much in terms of a pass rush. That is going to have to change, because opponents spent most of 2006 ignoring the run and simply throwing over the top. According to Pro Football Prospectus, the 2006 Horns were with first losing team in the history of modern passing to have opponents throw at least 60% of the time. They faced 348 rushes and 628 passes, a 64% pass rate. With all of those attempts, the Vikings should have been able to mount a pass rush, but they couldn’t. (They finished 31^st in PFP’s Adjusted Sack Rate.)

Hopefully Chad Greenway will provide some help in pass coverage, because E.J. Henderson struggled there last year. Henderson gives you excellent run support, but with teams throwing as often as they did (and will) you need some coverage ability in your linebackers. Antoine Winfield and Cedric Griffin both played pretty well at corner last year, and the Vikings are deep at the safety position. They’ll need that pass defense to excel.

It won’t really matter, in the end. The NFL is a passing league, and the Vikings can’t do it.

2. Green Bay Packers

The Packers are sort of the anti-Lions, having built their team from the inside out. Instead of putting together a formidable collection of skill players only to have the entire effort submarined by substandard line play, the Packers have focused on putting together solid units on both the offensive and defensive fronts. That strategy will likely pay dividends, and if Chicago stumbles the Pack will be ready to step into the divisional penthouse.

The Packer offseason narrative has focused entirely on Brett Favre for the past few summers; whether or not he’ll be coming back for another season has blocked out pretty much any other story. Having Favre back for another year will help in 2007; Aaron Rogers remains entirely untested and unknown, so stability at the QB position will keep the Pack in the hunt. It’s the offensive line that will make Favre’s decision to return a wise one, though. Green Bay threw two rookie guards into the lineup in 2006, and the experience gained in that trial-by-fire will be invaluable this year. Both Jason Spitz and Daryn Colledge improved as the season went on, and they’ll be assets in 2007.

Scott Wells enters his second year as the starting center after growing into the role in 2006. Along with Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, Wells fills out a strong Green Bay offensive front that will keep Favre upright and looking downfield.

There are serious questions at the offensive skill positions, however. Donald Driver is 32 and could begin to decline at any moment, and Greg Jennings continues to deal with hamstring issues that slowed him late last year. The departure of Ahman Green has left a notable gap in the running game; Vernand Morency and rookie Brandon Jackson will be relied upon heavily to keep defenses honest.

Green Bay’s defense is strong and improving, led by a good set of linebackers. A.J. Hawk played well in his rookie year and looks every bit the stud the Packers were expecting when they took him in the first round, and Brady Poppinga had a good year at strong-side linebacker in 2006. Nick Barnett gives Green Bay good play in the middle, but all of the linebackers benefit from playing behind an excellent defensive line.

Aaron Kampman is an out-and-out stud, strong against both the run and the pass from the defensive end position. Cullen Jenkins replaced Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila towards the end of the 2006 season and showed flashes of potential; Jenkins should give the Packers a solid second DE. Ryan Pickett does a good job of clogging the middle from the DT spot. The secondary could pose some problems, as both Charles Woodson and Al Harris are getting up there in years. They played well in 2006, but Green Bay will have to get younger in the defensive backfield sooner rather than later.

1. Chicago Bears

This pick makes me nervous to say the least; I’m putting the Bears first mainly because I expect Rex Grossman’s 2007 collapse to happen in the playoffs, not the regular season.

The Bears defense should be about as good as ever, at least for one more season. They’re starting to get old and expensive, but for 2007 at least they’ll be mighty effective. Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher form one of the league’s best linebacking tandems, and the defensive line is deep and talented. The defensive backfield has a couple of good corners in Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman, but questions remain at safety. Mike Brown struggles to stay healthy, and Adam Archuleta had a terrible 2006 with Washington. The Bears will need him to turn things around.

Cedric Benson inherits the bulk of the carries from the halfback spot, now that Thomas Jones is a Jet. As long as he stays healthy, there’s no reason to think he won’t be effective. Bernard Berrian and Mushin Muhammad both give Grossman decent targets downfield, and the offensive line does a good job of containing the pressure.

To put it simply, this team will go as far as Rex Grossman can take him. I think that will be to a division title, but not much further than that. In fact, I think there’s a good chance he’ll have a really nice regular season; after all, he’s headed into just his second full year as a starter, so some improvement is to be expected. It’ll probably be enough to sucker everyone into thinking that “Rex has turned the corner.” Then come playoff time, Sexy Rexy will melt down, and the Bears will be left wondering what could have been with their own version of Trent Dilfer.

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So, to sum up the NFC:

East: Eagles
South: Saints
West: 49ers
North: Bears
Wild Card: Packers, Redskins
NFC Champ: Eagles
SUPER BOWL: Patriots 31, Eagles 17

And you can beat heavily on that. I guarantee it. Enjoy the season. . . .

Overheard

2007-09-06T03:39:00.000-07:00

I've been critical of the Twins roster construction and organizational approach to offense, and to prove to you I'm not crazy, here are what some better writers have been saying about the hometown nine:

Similar to the A's the Twins have a solid pitching staff and defense, but flat out lack the offensive weapons the compete in the AL. With the loss of Torii Hunter seeming certain, the Twins need to make some radical changes to their team-building philosophies this off season.
-Matthew Carruth, The Hardball Times

This brings up something I've forgotten to mention on this blog. Thankfully there have been some rumors that the Twins' publicly stated policy of not negotiating with players during the season isn't actually how they operate, so I'm hoping it's just a ploy to keep the media coverage as calm as possible. However, if the Twins really don't negotiate with free agents to be during the season, that's an idiotic stance to take. I'm still confused by the way the Torii Hunter situation has unfolded and not impressed with the way things have been handled.

The Twins should have tried their very best to sign Torii Hunter to an acceptable contract up until July 15th, and then moved him for prospects if they weren't able. Now, if Terry Ryan fails to resign Hunter in the off season, the Twins only get a sandwich pick in between the first and second round as compensation for loosing Hunter, where they could have gotten much better prospects in a trade.

The team is in a tough position. The offense is in bad enough shape even with Hunter producing well, but Hunter is also going to be 32 next season. In all likelihood, the 2007 version of Hunter is as good as he's ever going to be offensively, and his defense has already started to decline. So the team can either lose one of their three best hitters, or overpay for an aging former all-star. Yuck.

It's never the annual salary that makes for a bad contract. Rather, because all contracts in baseball are guaranteed, it's always the length of big contracts that negatively impacts a team's competitiveness in future seasons. Ryan's goal should be to sign Hunter to a three year deal, which would cover his 32, 33 and 34 year-old seasons. I can't think of very many 35 year-old center fielders that have been worth big money. Johnny Damon is currently getting paid $13 million to post a .727 OPS for the Yankees right now and he's only 33 (and they still owe him $26 million for his 2008 and 2009 seasons).

Hunter and his agent aren't morons. They're going to push for the longest deal they can and they both know Hunter will never again be worth more than he is now. This off season will be his last chance to cash in big and set himself up financially for the rest of his life. The only way to get a player in Hunter's position to shave years off a contract is to up his annual salary, which isn't normally a bad trade-off, but Ryan has to contend with all the other contracts that will be coming due over the length of even a three year deal for Hunter, so that option is most likely out.

I hate to say it, but barring a contract that is going to hurt the Twins further on down the road, Hunter is leaving for good and all the Twins are getting in exchange is a sandwich pick. Barring a one-to-three year deal, it really looks like the Twins' front office has dropped the ball.

Completely lost in the offense's feeble second-half showing (3.75 runs/game) is the performance of the Twins' rotation. They've put up a 3.79 ERA, with Scott Baker (3.30) and Matt Garza (3.74) proving their big-league mettle, offering hope that Terry Ryan won't feel so compelled to seek out next year's version of Sidney Ponson or Ramon Ortiz to hobble the team out of the gate. As for that offense, its plight gets no easier with Joe Mauer sidelined by hamstring soreness.
-Jay Jaffe, Baseball Prospectus

The Twins continue to make the same mistakes. Jason Bartlett's no Jose Reyes or Hanley Ramirez but he is above replacement level, which is something you can't and couldn't say about Juan Castro. As with the shortstop debacle of seasons past, the Twins wasted money on washed up veterans (in this case back-end starters) because they were yet again afraid to trust their young talent. This time around the team ran out of money by the time the amateur draft came along and wound up drafting an inferior talent in the first round because they couldn't afford any of the true first rounders still on the board.

The front office has botched assembling a supporting cast on offense that can combine with the few real hitters the club has in their line-up to win games even with stellar pitching.

For me, the really interesting thing about the Phillies for the moment is that they're actually only at 38 players on their 40-man. In part, that's a product of having four hurlers on the 60-day DL, saving them space, but those moves were already old news—what's new is that they added those two extra spots not by transferring people to the 60-day DL, but by dumping Sanches and Branyan. Sanches is understandable; he's just organizational fodder. But ditching Branyan strikes me as an especially odd decision, especially considering that the club doesn't have a lefty pinch-hitter of note, and given that they're all of one player deep at the infield corners—subtract Greg Dobbs, let alone Ryan Howard, and the Phillies wind up with some pretty massive casting problems, and go from engaging underdogs for a third year running to something more like the Twins' National League cousins, a team that handicaps its bid for relevance and October action by blowing the little stuff.
-Christina Kahrl, Baseball Prospectus

Amen. At least someone, somewhere sees things as they are. The Twins front office has escaped a lot of well deserved criticism because they have done a remarkable job of building pitching staffs over the past half decade. Francisco Liriano was the only pitcher to place in the top ten in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) in 2006 who didn't throw at least 200 innings. He threw just 121! As a result of the front office's approach to pitching, the Twins have pitched their way to four playoff births in the last five years. As a result of the front office's approach to offense, the Twins still haven't been to a World Series in sixteen years.

Twins fans need to decide if getting bounced from the playoffs without ever winning an AL Pennant is enough for them when everything goes right over the course of a season (if not we wind up in third place). If so, great, they've got the perfect general manager right now. If not, the Twins as an organization are going to need to change they way they go about several things.

It's going to be an interesting and challenging off season. Hopefully a disappointing but predictable third place finish forces the organization outside their comfort zone this off season.

False Starts: The NFC East

2007-09-04T21:47:00.000-07:00

. . .and the beat goes on. Today we take a pass through the NFC East and all of the wonders therein. Unfortunately, this edition of FS is going to be slightly shorter than normal due to time constraints, but that shouldn’t detract from the overall Objective Experience. So let’s cut short the intro and get down to business. . . .

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Your certified-prescient picks in the 2007 AFC East:

4. New York Giants

This one could get very ugly very quickly. We all know that the New York media can create problems out of nothing, and they’re even better exacerbating small cracks in a team’s armor. When there are serious, deep-seeded issues, then it’s time to run for cover.

I’ve never placed a whole lot of stock in the whole idea of a “lame-duck” coach in the last year of his deal. I do think, however, when a team re-signs a coach for just one year, that could perhaps raise some issues. When that team’s former star running back claims that he retired because of said coach, you’re bordering on mutiny. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2007 New York Giants!

Tom Coughlin is toast. The players seem to despise him, and upper management seems to have little faith in his ability to win them back. A playoff run could save his job, but that isn’t in the cards and Coughlin will be in the unemployment line. The Tiki Barber retirement was a disaster; whatever your opinion of Barber and the way he handled things (and mine is, to say the least, negative), it highlights the issues in the Giants’ locker room.

At least Michael Strahan has decided to play. He “pondered retirement” for the entire pre-season, just now returning (to find a $200,000 fine waiting for him). He’ll team with Osi Umenyiora to form a potent pass rush duo, and middle linebacker Antonio Pierce gives New York a solid presence in the middle of the field. The rest of the linebacking corps is all-new, however. LaVar Arrington and Carlos Emmons are out, replaced by Kawika Mitchell and Mathias Kiwanuka. We’ll see if they can assimilate quickly enough. In the secondary, the Giants are counting heavily on rookie Aaron Ross to pick up the slack in a hurry.

Replacing Barber at running back poses a major issue. Brandon Jacobs moves from backup to starter, and Reuben Droughns joins the team as the primary back-up. Neither is in the same league as Tiki, so the passing game is going to have to step up. The offensive line, however, will likely prevent that. The Giants never replaced departed starting left tackle Luke Petitgout, and none of the other lineman are stars. Eli Manning has been criticized for his lack of accuracy, and while that’s undoubtedly on his shoulders the offensive line hasn’t really given him a chance to get comfortable in the pocket, either. Things aren’t going to go well in New York.

3. Dallas Cowboys

So, is Tony Romo a real NFL quarterback? I’m guessing no, which means the Cowboys finish third this year.

By mid-season, it was pretty much impossible to watch Ron Jaworski (who, by the way, is awesome) talk about anything except the bad habits of Tony Romo. The basic idea was that he had been getting stupidly lucky, making stupid plays that somehow worked out. Once teams got some film on him, they’d figure this out and force him back down to earth. That’s pretty much what happened: over his last five regular season games, he threw 8 picks to just 5 touchdowns, and the Cowboys lost to the Seahawks in the playoffs. That was the real Tony Romo, not the mid-season savior version.

It’s a shame, too, because the Cowboys have some pretty good offensive weapons. Terrell Owens drops a lot of passes but is still a force in the red zone, and Terry Glenn gives them a decent deep threat. The running back combo of Julius Jones and Marion Barber is distinctly above average, although Barber was the more effective runner this year.

Adding safety Ken Hamlin alongside Roy Williams helps to cover some of the latter’s deficiencies in pass coverage, and up front DeMarcus Ware can rush the passer with anyone. The Cowboys have a few other promising young linebackers (like Bobby Carpenter and Anthony Spencer), so we’ll see how new coach Wade Phillips implements his 3-4 scheme. The defensive line is ok-not-great, and the Cowboys have a pretty good pair of corners in Terrence Newman and Anthony Henry. Romo’s regression is going to doom the Cowboys, however.

2. Washington Redskins

The Redskins dodged a serious bullet when quarterback Jason Campbell avoided serious injury early in the preseason. He took an awful-looking hit to the knee and there were fears but Campbell could be lost for the season, but he ended up suffering only a bruise and will start in Week One. Injuries were the rule last season for the Skins, so maybe this bit of preseason good fortune signals a healthier 2007.

Santana Moss gives Campbell an excellent first option, and tight-end Chris Cooley works well as a bail-out receiver. The rest of the pass-catching ranks are a bit thin; Antoine Randel-El and Brandon Lloyd are acceptable, but not game-changers. Having a healthy Clinton Portis to couple with backup Ladell Betts in the backfield would help to the offense tremendously. Betts was good filling in last season, and if the Redskins can establish a reliable rotation behind Campbell they can take off a goodly amount of the pressure.

First-rounder LaRon Landry won the starting job at strong safety along-side Sean Taylor; if Landry lives up to expectations the Skins will have an excellent pair of starters. Like pretty much every other position on the roster, the safety spot is thin behind the starters, so when injuries strike (and they will somewhere if not at safety) Washington will be left scrambling to fill holes.

The Redskins added London Fletcher-Baker from Buffalo to upgrade their MLB spot, which should help a defense that was pretty awful last season once injuries struck. Washington will have to improve their pass-rush, regardless; end Andre Carter led the team with just 6 sacks last year.

1. Philadelphia Eagles

Offseason drama aside, the Eagles are one of the best two or three teams in the NFC and should emerge from the East with another division title. Drafting QB Kevin Kolb in the second round touched off a cavalcade of speculation as to Donovan McNabb’s future with the team, but in 2007 this is undoubtedly McNabb’s team and he will continue to play at a high level.

Brian Westbrook gives Philly one of the most versatile weapons in the NFL, giving them great production as both a runner and a receiver. He’s complimented by a competent set of receivers, although the departed Donte’ Stallworth does leave a hole across from Reggie Brown, the Eagles brought in Kevin Curtis from St. Louis. The Eagles have always liked to spread the field out using a bunch of receivers, so the loss of any single guy is rarely a major issue.

Defensively, Takeo Spikes takes over the weakside linebacker spot as Philly’s major offseason addition. Omar Gathier takes over for the released Jeremiah Trotter (who just signed with Tampa), and Chris Gocong won the third starting spot. End Jevon Kearse is returning from a broken leg, but Philly has plenty of depth in the defensive line in case Kearse proves unable to hold up over the entire season.

Basically, it seems pretty obvious that the Eagles are the class of the East, and I’d be shocked if they don’t win the division fairly easily.

Because of time issues, there’s a chance the NFC Central preview may not run until Friday. If that proves to be the case, then enjoy Thursday’s kickoff.

False Starts: The NFC South

2007-09-03T23:44:00.000-07:00

First things first: there has, in fact, been a bit of a delay in the production of this last handful of previews. As the kids say, “my bad.” In any case, we have three days until kickoff and three divisions left to cover, so according to my math the timing checks out. We’re climbing back into the saddle with the NFC South, so let’s get this thing started. . .

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Your Bad Newz Kennel-approved picks for the 2007 NFC South:

4. Atlanta Falcons

I’ll leave the discussion of Michael Vick’s peculiar hobby to someone with a moral compass; for now, we’re talking football, so all that matters is that Vick won’t be playing in 2007 (or any time soon after that). We don’t really know how these Falcons operate without Vick on the field: he’s such a unique talent that the offense will have to be drastically restructured to work with Joey Harrington behind center. The chances are good that the Atlanta passing game will improve (probably in dramatic fashion), but the Falcons don’t have a good way to replace the lost production on the ground.

We’ve never seen the Atlanta receivers play with a competent pass-thrower. Whether or not Joey Harrington is that passer, we can’t be sure, but at least he’s a quarterback who looks first at the pass. Roddy White isn’t much, and Ashley Lelie left for San Francisco (he won’t be missed in the ATL). Michael Jenkins has occasionally shown flashes of ability, but tight-end Alge Crumpler always played the role of Vick’s favorite target. Joe Horn will be starting opposite Jenkins at wideout, and if nothing else he’ll provide an upgrade over White.

Harrington can’t be any worse of a thrower than Vick was, but he’s not running for 1,000 yards any time soon. There’s going to be serious strain on the Falcons’ halfbacks to provide a decent run game, especially if Harrington doesn’t perk up under a new system. Warrick Dunn remains the starter, but he’s well on the wrong side of 30 and will continue to decline. The most effective Atlanta runner (aside from Vick) was Jerious Norwood, the now-third-year back who averaged over 6 yards per carry. He’s going to have to pick up a major part of the slack if the Falcons are going to muster any kind of offense.

Then, of course, you have the new coach. Bobby Petrino enters the Atlanta job with a sterling offensive reputation, but he obviously spent the early part of his off-season designing a Vick-centric offense. He’s facing a stern test now, having to re-design the team’s system on the fly in order to tailor the playbook to Joey Harrington specifications. That’s a tall order for any coach, especially one in his first NFL head-coaching job.

The Atlanta defense has plenty of over-priced, over-the-hill talent (like Lawyer Milloy and Keith Brooking) and will struggle to stop even a mediocre offense. Playing in the same division as New Orleans will provide plenty of defensive embarrassment for the 2007 Falcons.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Instability at the top has a tendency to trickle down, and the Bucs are going to pay the price for not cleaning up their leadership issues over the offseason. Coach Jon Gruden’s chair is uncomfortably warm, and he (or someone above him) brought on a heaping helping of trouble by not cutting quarterback Chris Simms before the finalization of rosters.

Simms struggled early on last year, getting occasionally replaced by Bruce Gradkowski. He eventually sustained a nasty internal injury that led to an emergency splenectomy and a lost season. Gruden has never exactly shown undying faith in Simms even when he was healthy, and that trend continued with the signing of Jeff Garcia. Some liability questions lingered in regard to the outright release of Simms because of possible medical liability, but the writing was on the wall: Gruden didn’t bring in Garcia to linger on the sidelines. Now that the Bucs have broken camp with 4 (!) quarterbacks (Luke McCown joins Garcia, Simms, and Gradkowski), those quarterback issues seem all the more pressing.

Gruden is clearly fighting for his job in Tampa. Reports have suggested that Bucs ownership made the call to keep Simms, not Gruden and GM Bruce Allen. With an aging roster and slipping performance, Gruden is clearly making a last-ditch effort to save his job by playing Garcia, a short-term solution at best. Even if Garcia is relatively successful this season, his presence is setting the Bucs franchise significantly.

Garcia is 37 years old: he’s not going to be a part of any future Tampa Bay resurgence. Likewise, the defense is struggling to replace aging players like Shelton Quarles and Simeon Rice (both of whom were released over the offseason) and to compensate for the declining play of Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber. 2007 first-round pick Gaines Adams injects some fresh blood into the defensive line, but Tampa has little else in the way of young talent. The Bucs need to shift into rebuilding mode, which involves playing younger guys like Simms in order to evaluate their usefulness. Instead, Garcia will likely be finished after this year, Simms will be long-gone after being jerked around, and the Bucs will be left at square one. They don’t have much for young offensive talent: Michael Clayton has disappeared after a good rookie year, and Cadillac Williams doesn’t appear to be the franchise back the Bucs were looking for. It’s time to blow this team up.

2. Carolina Panthers

If the Panthers could play 16 games of 2-on-2 football, they’d probably run the table. Unfortunately for them, NFL rules require a team to field more than just Steve Smith and Julius Peppers; as such, Carolina is headed for an 8-8 record.

I’m feeling optimistic, so we’ll focus on the good parts first. Of course, Steve Smith is fantastic. He’s one of the premier wideouts in the league, and nobody is more dangerous in the open field. The Panthers feed him the ball as much as possible, as he’s effective on both short and long passes. Peppers is probably even better; he might be the best player in the entire NFL. He’s freaky-good in pass-rush situations, and his sick athleticism lets the Carolina staff drop him into pass coverage or do pretty much anything else they can think of with him. I think it’s safe to say he made a good call quitting basketball.

The rest of the defensive line is top-notch as well, helping to keep some double-teams off of Peppers while also taking advantage of the extra attention he demands. Kris Jenkins and Mike Rucker terrorize offensive lines with regularity, helping to hide the significantly weaker linebackers behind them.

Having MLB Dan Morgan back and healthy after some serious concussion issues would be a boon to the defense; he can cover a lot of holes as the Panthers try to replace Chris Draft (now with St. Louis). In the secondary, Chris Gamble gives Carolina one solid corner, but Ken Lucas (the other starting cornerback) is getting old fast and isn’t going to help to contain New Orleans.

The offense, past Smith, looks shaky at best. Quarterback Jake Delhomme has been OK since their Super Bowl run, but he’s far from elite. He missed three games in 2007 with an injured wrist, and any missed time this year means far more David Carr than is recommended by the FDA. The Panthers released Keyshawn Johnson over the offseason, and it remains to be seen how well the likes of Keary Colbert, Drew Carter, and rookie Dwayne Jarrett can replace his production. Johnson wasn’t an elite wideout, but he provided a decent compliment to Smith and the Panthers need someone to step up into that #2 spot.

DeShaun Foster is still listed as the starting tailback, but the Panthers spent a lot of time last season figuring out ways to get the ball to DeAngelo Williams. Expect that trend to continue, as Carolina continues to phase out Foster.

This Carolina squad is just overwhelmingly mediocre. That might be enough to sneak into a Wild-Card spot, but they have no business competing for a division crown.

1. New Orleans Saints

Sure, their defense can’t stop anyone (how much fun is this Thursday’s Saints/Colts game going to be?), but with this kind of offensive firepower and a weak division, the Saints should cruise to a playoff berth. They’ve got a tasty bunch of exciting young players and one of the best quarterbacks in football: we’ll be seeing plenty of 38-34 games in the Superdome this season.

The Saints should be able to mount a pretty decent pass-rush; ends Charles Grant and Will “Insert Your Own Fresh Prince Joke” Smith combined for 16.5 sacks in 2006. The middle of the defensive line isn’t nearly as strong, although the Saints imported nose tackle Kendrick Clancy from Arizona in an attempt to fix that problem. The New Orleans linebackers are likewise competent, but on the whole underwhelming. Scott Fujita has a good story and a decent game, but he’s no game changer. Neither is Eagle-reject Mark Simoneau.

Getting Fred Thomas out of the secondary instantly improves that unit: he was a total sieve back there, and replacing him with former Colt Jason David gives the Saints a decent second corner to play with Mike McKenzie. McKenzie isn’t any kind of true shutdown corner, but he gives them decent play regardless and one could do much worse.

The Saints aren’t looking to win any 13-10 games, of course. As long as the defense can keep the opposition under 40, New Orleans will always have a shot. Drew Brees and his shoulder are just fine, thank you very much, and he gives the Saints a cornerstone at the most important position on the field. He’ll spend plenty of time getting the ball to Marques Colston, who had a fantastic rookie year and has firmly established himself as the top New Orleans wideout.

The Saints have also put together one of the most luscious running-back tandems in the NFL. Reggie Bush can do pretty much anything, and with a year under his belt he’s going to be a scary weapon. He looked increasingly comfortable later in the 2006 season, even getting some interior carries from time to time, and he spends plenty of time split out wide. Deuce McAllister provides the thunder up the middle, and he should be even better two years removed from his knee injury. All in all, the offense will be more than enough for the Saints to emerge from this weakened division.

Tomorrow: the NFC East.

For #@%$s sake, it's not 1968 anymore!

2007-08-31T03:19:00.000-07:00

First, check out GameDay editor John Bonnes' post On History, Performance and Disappointments over at his blog. My response is thus:

Did I think Nick Punto would be this bad? No. Did I think counting on a utility infielder coming off a breakout season that thrust him into usefulness for the first time in his career to be able to handle a corner position offensively was a mistake before the season began? Yes.

Did I think it was a mistake to resign an aging designated hitter on the merit of one good month at the end of the previous season prior to the 2007 campaign? Yes.

What's with the knock on Jason Bartlett? He's been worth around two wins over replacement and makes league minimum. That's not anything to get excited about, but still well within the realm of tolerable.

As far as learning from mistakes, the Twins' problems constructing a potent and consistent offense predate this season and they still haven't joined the modern era of baseball. Look at the type of hitters that bat second in the Twins line-up, the kind of hitters that are slotted in at designated hitter and that the organization would draft a position player that doesn't even weigh 160 pounds in the first round if you want a window into the minds of the Twins' brass.

The organization has failed to adjust to an era of baseball that has long abandoned astro turf* and giant multipurpose stadiums while conversely adopting tighter wound Dominican baseballs (as opposed to the ones manufactured in Haiti prior to 1987) and the teachings of the sabermetric revolution.

The Twins' organizational approach to scoring runs is at least 20 years behind the times. And this is the garbage the local press allows the team to get away with calling "playing the game the right way."

This huge problem has been masked by some awesome pitching over the past half decade, which makes up for a grand multitude of sins and is admittedly more important than offense. But the problem remains as it has been, and it doesn't look like the organization is learning much of anything from their continued failures that are a direct result of an outdated philosophy.

Until the Twins do, fans are going to have to continue to hope for years in which seemingly everything goes right at the plate.

*Even the Twins have moved to the much slower playing surface of field turf.

False Starts: The NFC West

2007-08-27T17:38:00.000-07:00

We turn our attention today to the NFC, starting out West. The conference as a whole is noticeably weaker than the AFC, but with that relative weakness comes a significantly more wide-open field; it’s fairly easy to identify the best half-dozen or so AFC teams, but that’s not true in the FOX Conference. Let’s get right to it, so we can all snicker at Sharkey in December for picking the 49ers. . . .

A little birdie told me that Football Outsiders and their book are pretty awesome.

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Your completely objective picks for the 2007 NFC West:

4. Arizona Cardinals

This whole division is pretty bad; trying to pick the West basically comes down to: Whose glaring deficiency is the least crippling?

The Cardinals appear to be headed in the right direction, having fired Denny Green over the offseason. Green’s merits as a coach in general are debatable, but he was clearly not in a good position in Arizona. He does not appear to be well-suited for running a reclamation project; see, for example, his senseless juggling of Josh McCown and Shaun King two years ago. I get the sense that Green expects to win instantly, and while that may be a commendable character trait, it doesn’t fit in Arizona.

To replace Green, the Cardinals imported a big chunk of Bill Cowher’s former Steelers staff, led by new head coach Ken Wisenhunt. (O-Line coach Russ Grimm and special-teams coach Kevin Spencer also left Pittsburgh to join the Arizona staff.) I suspect this will end up a wise move for the franchise; they desperately need some stability at the top, and few did it better than the Steelers.

All of the big names reside on offense. Matt Leinart enters his second year as the unquestioned starter, looking to build off of a fairly successful introduction to the pro game. There’s no reason to suspect he that he won’t improve in 2007, although he’ll probably endure his share of growing pains this year as well. A lot of his success or failure will be based on how much the offensive line improves under Grimm. You can ask Edgerrin James about last year’s offensive line; it was pretty ugly for most of the season (although it seemed to improve later in the season, judging by James’ rushing totals: all three of James’ 100-yard games came over the last third of the season). The Cardinals added Penn State tackle Levi Brown in the first round, and he has taken over the starting right tackle (remember: Leinart is a lefty, making the RT spot the more important one).

James had a terrible year last year, and whether or not that was due to aging or the line play will be important this year: having a decent running game to take the pressure off of the passing game would be a boon. The wideouts (Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald) are great, so if James and the running game can keep defenses honest, the air attack could thrive.

In the end, I just think the Cardinals are at least a year away. The defense outside of safety Adrian Wilson has plenty of holes, and the team needs to give the new staff time to mesh with the young players. We’ll see where things stand next summer.

3. St. Louis Rams

The Rams have a more established core than Arizona, which leads to their higher ranking here. They won’t be headed anywhere fast if they don’t shore up the defense in a hurry, though: while the Cardinals defense is below average, the Rams’ is cover-your-eyes awful.

The St. Louis defense was especially bad against the run, and based on their offseason moves they know it. They signed linebacker Chris Draft, known for his solid play against the run, from Carolina in free agency, then used their first-round pick on Nebraska defensive lineman Adam Carriker. It’s going to take more than two players to solidify that defense, but at least Draft and Carriker point St. Louis in the right direction.

The Rams can still score, but it’s not exactly the Greatest Show on Turf anymore. The Rams made Steven Jackson the focal point of their offense last year, and it paid off with a tidy little 2,334-total-yards season.

The St. Louis usage of Jackson is basically the Bizarro-Kansas City. Instead of plowing their star running back straight into the line 400 times, the Rams gave Jackson a relatively modest 346 carries in 2006. The rest of the touches came from the passing game: Jackson caught 90 balls for 806 yards and three scores to go along with his running numbers. All research done into running-back usage points to the conclusion that catches don’t really make much difference in terms of added injury risk, but an excessive number of carries does. This makes intuitive sense, of course: getting your back out away from the 350-pound monsters and into the terrain ruled my cornerbacks cuts down on the wear and tear. St. Louis understands this.

The passing game is still pretty decent, too. Marc Bulger is one of the top year-in, year-out QBs in football, and he has a nice new long-term contract. Bulger had what was probably his finest season last year, and while he might regress a bit there’s no reason to expect too dramatic a fall. Torry Holt remains an elite receiver, and Isaac Bruce had a surprisingly good year in 2006 as well. The Rams also added Randy McMichael and Drew Bennett in the off-season to compliment their main two wideouts.

It’s too bad that the defense is as crummy as it is, but at the very least the Rams will be worth watching to see how many linebackers Jackson can plow over.

2. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks have missed their chance. They may have managed to buck recent history by making the playoffs the year after losing the Super Bowl, but that was just the start of their decline. There’s just not really that much left on this squad that isn’t approaching (or already past) its expiration date, so the question will soon become whether or not Mike Holmgren is willing to stick around through a rebuilding phase.

Shaun Alexander had essentially a lost season in 2006, battling foot injuries and never really getting healthy. His 2005 season teetered right on the brink of excessive carries (he got the ball 370 times), and keeping true to history injuries struck the following season. Alexander turns 30 this year (always a nasty age for running backs), and 30-year-old running backs with foot problems don’t tend to age very well. Maurice Morris wasn’t very effective while Alexander was out and Seattle doesn’t have anyone waiting in the wings; it might be time to start planning for life after #37.

QB Matt Hasselbeck dealt with his own injury problems last year, and while he’s probably not looking at the kind of imminent decline that Alexander is facing, he’s not going to be getting a lot of help from the rest of the offense. Without guard Steve Hutchinson, the offensive line took a noticeable dive. Glancing at Football Outsiders’ offensive line stats, Seattle fell from 6^th to 30^th in Adjusted Line Yards, and from 13^th to 26^th in Adjusted Sack Rate. Nagging injuries to left tackle Walter Jones only compounded the line issues, and at 33 years old Jones too is likely on the downside of his career.

Hasslebeck’s receiving corps is looking thin as well. Seattle traded long-time Seahawk Darrell Jackson to the 49ers, and added in his place. . .Marcus Pollard? I guess so. Seattle is betting heavily on Deion Branch’s ability to settle in with a full training camp, because there isn’t much else there. They’ll likely try to re-insert Nate Burleson at WR, and D.J. Hackett is currently listed as the #2. Hackett had a pretty decent season last year, so we’ll see if he’s capable of holding down a starting spot.

The Seahawks are undergoing a major overhaul in the secondary as well. Free safety Ken Hamlin signed in Dallas, and strong-sider Michael Boulware has been benched. Seattle brought in Deon Grant and Brian Russell to fill the safety spots. Both are likely to help solidify the pass defense, which will be important after corner Marcus Trufant’s disappointing 2006. Seattle has a fairly solid front line, although the continued absence of DT Marcus Tubbs after microfracture surgery weakens the trenches significantly. Linebacker Lofa Tatupu gives the Seahawks an anchor in the middle, and Julian Peterson played well last year (although Leroy Hill, by all accounts, struggled mightily in pass coverage). The defense looks pretty average (maybe a bit better, depending on the safety transition), but I just don’t see where the points are going to come from. The Seahawks will likely slide even further down the divisional ranks in the future, but they’ve already been passed by at least one team.

1. San Francisco 49ers

If Seattle is on the downward slope, then the 49ers are ready to jump into the divisional penthouse. They’re a testament to how quickly you can turn an NFL team around: a few good staffing hires, a couple of good drafts, and the occasional complementary free-agent signing, and you’re right back in the thick of things. (At least, you are in the NFC West.)

Frank Gore had the obviously great season in 2006, and it looks like he’s just beginning a run as one of the top handful of running backs in all of football. He totaled his 1696 yards on just 312 carries, and like St. Louis the 49ers appear to understand the importance of keeping your running back fresh. Gore added 61 catches, which led the team last year. He’s not likely to repeat that last feat, however—a couple of new additions and an important year of experience should see to that.

As I mentioned in the Seattle section, Darrell Jackson is now a 49er. Granted, he’s had some trouble with dropped passes since. . .well, forever, but he’s an obvious upgrade over the likes to Antonio Bryant. San Francisco also brought in Ashley Lelie, hoping they can capitalize on some of his heretofore untapped potential. He’s shown flashes of high-level talent, but has never been really able to put the whole package together. He’ll get a shot now.

Perhaps the biggest added weapon is simply a healthy and experienced Vernon Davis. Anyone who’s seen an Under Armour ad knows how freaky-built that guy is; he’s like an evolutionary Antonio Gates or something. He’s huge, he’s fast, he’s strong, and he’ll be dominating whoever tries to cover him in the very near future.

It’s going to be on Alex Smith to use these weapons effectively, and I like his chances of doing so. His hands aren’t getting any bigger and he’ll probably always have fumble issues because of it, but he took a noticeable step forward last year in his second season. He’s not an elite talent, but he’s more than capable of holding down an NFL starting job for a long time. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner may have left, but the 9ers wisely promoted from within to fill his vacancy, and Smith will not have to adjust to a new system.

On defense, the 49ers made a huge splash by signing corner Nate Clements from Buffalo to the richest defensive contract in history. He’ll allow the other major defensive signing, safety Michael Lewis, to play up in run support where he belongs, and along with Pro Bowl corner Walt Harris the three form a pretty fearsome defensive backfield. Coach Mike Nolan also feels that he has the personnel in place to run his preferred 3-4 full time this season, having added rookie LB Patrick Willis and free-agent Tully Banta-Cain to go with Manny Lawson. One curious thing on the depth chart, at least right now: Brandon Moore, who according to Pro Football Prospectus “had a superlative season in 2006” appears to have lost his starting job. I haven’t been able to find any reason for this; maybe Derek Smith has just outplayed him. In any case, San Francisco is nicely positioned to win the division not just this year, but for many.

Tomorrow: the NFC South. Click here to view the past editions of False Starts.

The Northwoods Beat: From the Lowest of Lows...

2007-08-27T12:42:00.000-07:00

I'm tardy. I know. The Northwoods League baseball season officially came to an end on Friday night, August 17th. I had every intention of jumping online and giving everyone the update the next day...but I just couldn't. Now, I realize I should do it before it's too late but by writing this blog entry, I'm admitting that my season is gone. Don't get me wrong. I'm a major league fan as well and I love seeing the Twins put together a late season push. But Northwoods baseball is summer.

To be honest, it looked like the playoff scenario might be a bit lopsided. The two first half division winners finished the second half of the season in 4th (Green Bay) and 7th (St. Cloud) in their respective divisions. How could they hold up against two teams who were still rolling? The St. Cloud River Bats were not only going into the playoffs with a 14-18 second half record, they were still in a state of shock. On August 3rd, late season addition, pitcher Ritchie Gargel was found badly injured after a swimming accident. Later that week, the lefty from Temple University passed away.

Despite the Gargel tragedy, St. Cloud rolled over Duluth in their divisional match up, winning the best of 3 game set in just 2 games. Eau Claire won a see-saw battle with Green Bay in the third game. The final series was a showdown between the upstart Eau Claire Express, looking for their first championship in only their 3rd season in existence and the St. Cloud River Bats.

It only took two games. St. Cloud, perhaps rallying together after the death of Gargel, eliminated Eau Claire and claimed their third Northwoods League Championship. From a great first half to a shaky second half and the unfortunate tragedy of Richie Gargel...to top of the heap. My hat's off to St. Cloud and their field manager, Tony Arnerich.

Another season down, but it doesn't really end there. Now it's time to start recruiting for next year!

False Starts: The AFC West

2007-08-27T00:11:00.000-07:00

I might as well get this out of the way right now: I’m an unabashed Denver Broncos partisan. It’s probably inevitable that this allegiance will in some way color the following AFC West preview; in any case, I’ll do my best to present the facts as I see them. Without further ado, let’s get this week started. . . .

Football Outsiders and their book are so invaluable, I’d be wasting words trying to describe them.

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The completely unbiased order of finish in the 2007 AFC West:

4. Kansas City Chiefs

I’ll be honest—it’s a coin-flip here between the Chiefs and Raiders. They’re both really terrible, but head coach Herm Edwards puts the Chiefs over the top (under the bottom?). He’s fun to listen to in post-game press conferences, but he’s even more of a delight to have coaching a division rival.

Herm is a notoriously poor in-game coach, especially when it comes to clock management. Recall, for example, when the Jets reassigned an assistant coach specifically to begin handling time-related issues at the end of halves. This fact boggled my mind three years ago, and continues to: how difficult can clock management really be? It’s one of the most basic logical puzzles you can imagine: you have a set play clock, a set number of downs, a set number of game clock left, specific ways to stop or let the clock run. . .yeesh. We’re just going to move on.

Edwards also appears to be a big fan of the “running-back-as-battering-ram” strategy. That’s how he used Curtis Martin, and that’s how he used Larry Johnson last year. Everyone is talking about it anyway, but it’s worth emphasizing: Johnson shattered the NFL’s single-season record for carries with 416. I’m a little surprised that Johnson managed to make it through the entire offseason without having a leg fall off in the middle of the supermarket or something. Johnson is finally in camp after wisely holding out for a big guaranteed contract; even he seems to realize that his time as a healthy human is soon coming to an end under Herm.

The decline of the Chiefs offensive line isn’t doing Johnson any favors, either. Willie Roaf and Will Shields are gone into retirement, and what remains upfront is underwhelming at best. Johnson doesn’t get a lot of wide-open, contact-free carries back there.

Veteran Damon Huard has won the starting QB spot over youngster Brodie Croyle. Huard was relatively good replacing Trent Green last year after the latter’s nasty concussion, but Huard is the complete opposite of a long-term solution. Maybe once it becomes obvious to everyone (even Herm) that the 2007 Chiefs are a lost cause, they will take an extended look at Croyle to see if he can be counted on in the future.

There isn’t much going on defensively, either. Their cornerbacks (Ty Law and Patrick Surtain) are big names that passed their primes years ago. Derrick Johnson is a pretty good young linebacker, but the Chiefs completely whiffed on the Kendrell Bell signing. The Colts exposed Kansas City in last year’s playoffs, and things are going to get worse before they get better.

3. Oakland Raiders

I have two conflicting schools of thought regarding new Raiders coach Lane Kiffin. Part of me thinks that since he interviewed for the Gophers head-coaching slot and couldn’t even get that, he must be a terrible coach. The other part of me thinks that if Minnesota AD Joel Maturi passed over Kiffin, Lane must be the modern-day Vince Lombardi. In any case, he has to be an upgrade over the Art Schell Experience the Raiders were enjoying last season.

One of the biggest changes in Raiderland comes at QB: enter Daunte Culpepper! This is a pretty major muddy-waters situation: I have no idea how much of Daunte’s horrific 2006 to attribute to his knee injury, and how much to blame on his general suckiness. I tend to think he will have a decent season in 2007, especially if wide receiver Jerry Porter finds out that Schell is gone and decides to play again. Porter caught exactly one ball last year and spent most of the season possibly rooting against the Raiders from the sidelines. (Porter denied doing so, but I wouldn’t hold it against him.) If Daunte spends the season chucking long-balls to Porter down the sidelines, the Raiders may even occasionally 20 points. (The 2006 Raiders cracked the 20-point barrier four times, and were shut out three times.)

We’ll get a good look at the health of Culpepper’s knee, because the Oakland offensive line is pretty bad. Bringing Cooper Carlisle over from Denver should help, but the fact that former second-overall pick Robert Gallery has been a bust at left tackle will leave Daunte looking over his shoulder.

It’s probably for the best that this year’s top pick, QB JaMarcus Russell, is still holding out. Taking a year to learn the NFL ropes will help Russell develop, and not having to play behind this year’s offensive line will help even more. Russell is far from a sure thing in the best of situations, so Kiffin’s future probably depends on whether or not Russell turns into the star Oakland wants him to be.

The defense is pretty good, as it was last year. Michael Huff had a great rookie year at safety, and the rest of the secondary is filled out with promising young players like Nnamdi Asomugha. (I also just really wanted to type out that name in order to torture my spell-check.) Derrick Burgess has been quite effective at defensive end in his last two seasons with Oakland. Warren Sapp was surprisingly decent last year. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is one of the very best in the league. At the very least, the defense should keep things from getting too out of hand.

Oakland’s long-term future is tied to the success or failure of Russell, and we won’t likely see anything from him at all this year. Any positive developments that may arise will come from Kiffin, if he shows he can handle the job. Past that, the Raiders are just waiting for next year.

2. San Diego Chargers

I make this assertion not as a Broncos fan. Instead, I am saying that the Chargers and their 14-2 record will miss the playoffs in a loaded AFC thanks to one Norv Turner: one of the absolute worst head coaches in football.

San Diego is outright loaded. We all know Tomlinson, who does pretty much whatever he wants and comfortably holds the title of World’s Best Running Back (2007 Edition). Tight end Antonio Gates is nothing short of a freak, and can abuse any linebacker who dares to cover him downfield. (The Broncos often assign Champ Bailey to cover Gates, and Bailey is approximately four feet shorter.)

Phillip Rivers had a pretty good year in his first as Chargers starting quarterback, and there is no reason to think he will not continue to improve in 2007. He will be without #1 wideout Eric Parker for at least the first few weeks of the season (Parker had surgery on an injured toe), but so much of the San Diego passing game revolves around Gates and Tomlinson anyway that Rivers should be able to compensate for Parker’s absence.

The Chargers defense is talented as well. Few teams can match the defensive line of Jamal Williams, Igor Olshansky, and Other Luis Castillo. Antonio Cromarte and Quentin Jammer give San Diego a good young pair of corners. Shawne Merriman is possibly the best defensive player on the NFL, depending on how you feel about his failed steroid test. By the way, the fact that I just typed that sentence speaks to the absurd double standards regarding steroids in football and baseball, but that discussion is for another time.

So how bad does Norv Turner have to be to overcome all of this talent? Really, really bad: but he’s up to the task. I was curious when the Chargers fired Marty Schottenheimer; Marty is a pretty good coach, but the Chargers could conceivably upgrade with the right hire. Imagine my joy, then, when they introduced Norv Turner and his 58-82 career record!

I knew Turner was a bad coach, but I was still a little stunned by the Chargers chapter of Pro Football Prospectus. The mark of any good statistical analysis is getting the really obvious stuff right, and PFP destroys Turner in a way that must really be read; I can’t do it justice here. A few choice nuggets include:
--Turner is one of only 8 coaches to ever have a losing record while still underperforming his projected Pythagorean record.
--Turner is the 9^th-worst coach ever at holding 4^th-quarter leads.
--Did I mention his career record is 58-82?

The Chargers have the talent to compete for Super Bowls, but Norv Turner will cost the team a playoff spot.

1. Denver Broncos

Saying Mike Shanahan is the best coach in the division isn’t saying much, but it’s so not close that it bears mentioning. While Shanahan definitely deserves some of the blame for Denver’s post-Elway playoff struggles, he remains one of the best coaches in football. (He’s the only one who attempts to replicate his team color with his skin tone; the mile-high radiation has cooked Shanny to a wonderful shade of orange.)

The Denver defense will be one of the league’s best in defending the pass. The death of corner Darrent Williams was as senseless as it was jarring, but the off-season addition of Dre’ Bly for a pair of expendable players (the mis-cast Tatum Bell and RT George Foster) gives the Broncos one of the strongest corner tandems in all of football. Champ Bailey is simply the best corner in the NFL, and adding Bly on the other side will free the aging John Lynch to step further up into run coverage, where he still excels.

The Broncos cut ties with MLB Al Wilson, after age and a neck injury slowed the long-time Bronco. Wilson will be missed, but DJ Williams is sliding over from strong-side linebacker to fill Wilson’s spot. Whether Nate Webster can competently fill Williams’s old spot will be an important development for the Broncos.

Starting defensive end Ebenezer Ekuban ruptured his Achilles tendon in the pre-season and is done for the year; this puts significant pressure on this year’s 1^st round pick Jarvis Moss. Second-year pass-rush specialist Elvis Dumervil will also need to step up his play in Ekuban’s absence.

Travis Henry takes over at running back and should be competent (as long as a minor pre-season knee injury heals as expected). At the very least, we know that having 9 (!) child-support payments to make should keep Henry sufficiently motivated. (Thanks to ProFootballTalk.com for the link.)

The Broncos’ season comes down to the play of second-year QB Jay Cutler. Cutler had his good and bad moments last year after replacing Jake Plummer, and having Cutler settle in as a solid starter this year would go a long way towards returning the Broncos to the playoffs. The Broncos added Brandon Stokley in the offseason to help soften the decline of Rod Smith (who will likely spend the year on the physically-unable-to-perform list), and Brandon Marshall will also have to improve.

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The final AFC Summary:

East: Patriots
North: Bengals
South: Jaguars
West: Broncos
Wild Card: Ravens, Colts
AFC Champion: Patriots

Come back tomorrow as we begin the NFC side of things. You can catch up on the complete AFC preview here.

What's Wrong With This Picture?

2007-08-24T00:22:00.000-07:00

I swiped the following illustration from the good people over at http://www.twinsballpark2010.com :

Why is this guy pumping his fist in the air? And why is everyone standing? All of the fielders are standing relaxed at their positions. The pitcher looks like he might be in motion, but if he were putting the ball in play and was already into his windup, you'd expect a few infielders in ready stances.

From what I can tell, the crowd is giving the starting pitcher a standing ovation during his warm up pitches? And one multiracial couple in particular are really going nuts?

"Yeah, Johan, baby! Get loose! Thata way to warm up! Oh yeah, test out the slider now! Do it! YES!"

I hope the new park has a crapload of EMTs, as heaven forbid the home team scores a run. Fans are going to be passing out left and right more frequently than heroines in Gothic novels overcome with incapacitating tidal waves of emotion.

False Starts: The AFC South

2007-08-23T23:58:00.000-07:00

Ah, Friday. What better way to spend it than with the Champs and their foils in the AFC South? Out NFL preview roles on, as I tackle such questions as: Can the Colts repeat? Is Vince Young the Truth? And will the Jags finally stop Choppin’ Wood? We’ve got the answers. . . .

And, of course, credit to the Football Outsiders and their annual for making so much information so easily available. W00t.

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Making it rain with the 2007 AFC South:

4. Houston Texans

Hide the women and children: it’s your 2007 Houston Texans. They’re lucky that torture is legal now; otherwise, I’m not sure anyone would be able to broadcast their games.

The Texans are an abject lesson in the importance of the quarterback position and what happens when you get it dreadfully wrong. David Carr was the franchise’s first overall pick, and five years later the team is back where it started. Carr is out (just one year after the team decided to exercise an $8 million option on him) and former Falcons backup Matt Schaub slots in behind center.

It’s impossible to say how Carr might have turned out had he played with a decent offensive line, but he still held onto the ball way too long and brought a lot of the sacks he took on himself. We’ll see how a new quarterback fairs behind that line and whether or not Schaub proves more able to get rid of the ball in time.

Even if Schaub does get the ball out before getting hammered by the pass rush, he doesn’t have a lot to work with at the skill positions. Lead wideout Andre Johnson is an excellent player, but the rest of the offense is barren. The Texans signed Keenan McCardell to replace Eric Moulds as the past-his-prime second receiver, and there is little in the way of young talent elsewhere among the wideouts. Tight end Jeb Putzier has been a disappointment since coming over from Denver; former Bronco offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak had little use for him last year.

The Texans are compounding the problem with their choice of running back. Instead of looking for a young back who can grow along with the team, Houston brought in former Packer Ahman Green. It’s a totally pointless move: Green is far past his prime and will in no way be a part of any future Texans success, so why waste everyone’s time?

The defense actually has some young talent; if the Texans approach respectability any time soon, it will be because of the development on that side of the ball. Last year’s #1 overall pick, Mario Williams, didn’t rack up the impressive sack totals one expects from an end, but by all accounts he played very well in run coverage. Even better was second-round pick (and defensive Rookie of the Year) DeMeco Ryans, the linebacker. Those two players, along with corner Dunta Robinson, give the Texans three top-notch young defensive players. 2007 first round pick Amobi Okoye, a defensive tackle, has apparently not looked good at all in training camp, but if he fulfills any of his potential, he’ll add to that good young base. In any case, the stadium is still the best thing the Texans have going for them.

3. Tennessee Titans

Perhaps you’ve heard: Vince Young isn’t half bad. I know it’s a pretty well-kept secret, but that’s the kind of crack investigative reporting that you can expect from someone with my credentials. It probably won’t matter how good Young is, unfortunately, because he’s surrounded by offensive desolation.

I dare you to name a single Titans receiver. Go ahead, give it a shot. Nope, sorry: Drew Bennett signed with the Rams. Brandon Jones is the returning receiving yardage leader, having totaled all of 384 yards last season. That’s some real quality, folks. Young is probably better off utilizing the rarely-seen Bugs Bunny approach of throwing passes to himself.

The running game is very much up in the air as well. Last year’s featured back, Travis Henry, is now with the Broncos; he’s no world-beater, but Henry is a fairly competent runner and a team could do much worse. (See: Texans.) Perennial under-achiever Chris Brown and occasional under-achiever LenDale White will have to shoulder whatever rushing load isn’t picked up by Vince Young scrambles.

The defense could have been pretty decent, but the year-long suspension of cornerback Adam Jones seriously complicates things. Jones is (was?) one of the best young corners in all of football and can cover up a lot of defensive shortcomings, but he also seems to be unable to stay off of the police blotter. His Tennessee career is likely over; he’s too good for someone else not to give him a look next year, but that won’t do the Titans any good.

Kyle Vanden Bosch is a quality defensive end, but the rest of the Tennessee D-line is so terrible that Vanden Bosch sees never-ending double-teams. Linebacker Keith Bulluck is even better, but two players do not a defense make. There is still a lot of building to do, especially with the new hole at cornerback.

Last year’s Titans squad had a serious lightning-in-a-bottle feel to them, ripping off six straight wins before their week-17 pasting at the hands of New England. All but one of those wins came by one touchdown or less (the exception being a 31-13 win over the Eagles in week 11). The Titans won’t fare so well in close games this time around. This year isn’t about immediate success: the continued development of Vince Young at quarterback will be what defines the 2007 season in Tennessee.

2. Indianapolis Colts

The 2006-7 Colts were the NFL’s answer to the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. They seemed pretty pedestrian in the regular season, then suddenly tore up the playoffs and took home the title. The Colts defense absolutely sucked in the regular season, then shut down the Chiefs and Ravens in the playoffs. After a squeaker with the Patriots, Rex Grossman did the rest and Peyton Manning finally had his ring.

Pro Football Prospectus 2007 gives a good account of just how bad the Indy D was in the regular season. My two favorite stats are:
--The Colts gave up 360 points, making them only the second Super Bowl champ to allow more than 310
--The 5.33 yards per carry the Colts surrendered was the worst number any team in the NFL has allowed since the 1961 Vikings. It was also, needless to say, the worst ever by a Super Bowl winner. Only one other champ allowed worse than 4.4 per carry (Denver, 1997: 4.73).
The Colts, to put it simply, break the system.

How one predicts the Colts comes down to: do you believe in the regular-season defense, or the playoff defense? I’ll take the larger sample size, thank you very much. There has been quite a bit of defensive turnover, too, which further complicates things: they’ve lost starters at linebacker, safety, and both cornerback spots. Maybe that will actually improve things; I have no idea.

I’m betting on the horrible Colts defense, but I still think they are going to sneak into the second AFC wild-card spot. After all, the best quarterback on the planet has to count for something, right? I just can’t imagine Peyton Manning not throwing the Colts into the playoffs; it wouldn’t be the same without them. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne outclass even Cincinnati’s duo of stud receivers, and tight-end Dallas Clark is among the very best at his position. The offensive line gives Manning the time he needs to get the ball out to those weapons, but Manning is so good at getting rid of the ball ahead of the pass rush that it doesn’t take much.

Running back depth is something to watch: the Colts let Dominic Rhodes walk in the offseason, giving Joseph Addai the job full-time. That’s a good move (Addai is by far the better player), but the Colts are now very thin at the position and an injury to Addai could be a real problem. Even with a scrub at running back, Manning can probably get the Colts the 30 points they’ll need to compete, but it’ll be that much harder.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars

Gulp. This one makes me nervous.

First, the reasons why I think the Jags are going to beat out the Colts: the defense is loaded. I mean, seriously stacked. John Henderson and Marcus Stroud make up the best DT duo in football. Stroud missed some time in 2006, but was as good as ever when healthy. The ends (Bobby McCray and Paul Spicer) are pretty damn good too.

The secondary is led by corner Rashean Mathis, who made his first Pro Bowl last year after a break-out season. The Jags filled a major hole at safety by grabbing Reggie Nelson out of Florida in the first round of the draft, and they’re expecting him to step straight into the starting lineup.

The offense is led by the two-headed monster at running back: veteran injury-risk Fred Taylor and second-year sensation Maurice Jones-Drew. Both players averaged at least 5 yards per carry last year, and they combined for over 2,000 rushing yards. Jones-Drew provides the perfect complement to Taylor, giving the Jags two contrasting styles and the opportunity to keep both backs fresh and healthy.

That’s the basic pro-Jacksonville argument: great D and a great running game. I’m on board, nervously. The issues working against the Jags are significant and related: they’ve got a seriously muddy quarterback situation, and Jack Del Rio is probably a terrible head coach.

I’ve been an admitted Byron Leftwich fan ever since that bowl game he played in college on a broken leg, when his lineman were literally carrying him up the huddle after every play. That was just awesome. He hasn’t been a very good pro, unfortunately—at least, not yet. He’s a career 58% passer who’s missed 15 games in the last two seasons. Backup David Garrard seems to be taking on near-mythic proportions as the assumed answer at QB, which is something I cannot understand.

Garrard is an OK quarterback, but he’s nothing more than that. He went 5-5 as a starter last year—it’s not like he was winning games left and right. Leftwich actually has the potential to be an above-average NFL starter, and he should get that chance.

Jack Del Rio has made things a lot more complicated. Aside from presiding over the most insanely inconsistent team in football last year (they crushed the Colts and Jets while still losing TWICE to Houston), he allowed the quarterback controversy to spin out of control by badly mismanaging Leftwich’s return from injury. Things are only getting worse in the preseason. If Del Rio manages to get this team on the same page, they can contend for the Super Bowl—but that’s a pretty big “if.”

You can check out all of the False Starts here. Next up: the AFC West.

Farewell to the White Flag

2007-08-23T01:48:00.000-07:00

The Twins parted ways with Ramon "The White Flag" Ortiz on the 15th, shipping him off to Colorado for middling infield "prospect" Matt Macri, who managed to put up decent numbers in Double-A as a 25 year-old (don't get your hopes up, Matt).

Even though GameDay editor John Bonnes already conceded the point on his blog, I'd like to rub his preseason comment that the Twins couldn't do much better for $3-4 million than Ramon Ortiz in his face one last time. As I see it, here is how things shook out for the Twins as a result of the Ortiz signing, with respect to which players currently call the Twins' minor league system home:

Option A
Ben Revere - OF
Matt Macri - INF

Option B
Andrew Brackman - SP

I'll take Option B. Anyone honestly think Brian Cashman would trade Brackman for Revere and Macri?

False Starts: The AFC North

2007-08-22T22:55:00.000-07:00

We’re keeping the 2007 NFL preview rolling on today, after a moving-induced day off. There’s nothing like moving furniture (that isn’t even yours!) into a new place (that isn’t even yours!) to really clear one’s head. Next on the docket is the AFC North, the second-toughest division in the league. (We’ll get to the toughest one sometime next week.) So wash up those Dirty Brown Towels, and for the love of God don’t skimp on the bleach. . . .

Again, a tip of the hat to the Football Outsiders and their top-notch annual.

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The kid-tested, mother-approved order of finish for the 2007 AFC North:

4. Cleveland Browns

I’m doing my best to limit myself to one Dirty Brown Towel joke in this column; I hope you all appreciate my restraint. In any case, for the first time in many moons, the Browns are actually kind of interesting. Over the past couple of seasons, they’ve started to assemble one of the more promising cores of young offensive talent in the NFL. You could call them the league’s answer to the Devil Rays: they give an observer plenty of upside to dream on, but we’re still going to have to wait and see if they go anywhere in the end.

The Browns had a monster first round in the 2007 draft, and how their two picks pan out will define the future of the organization for the foreseeable future. They used their top pick on man-mountain Joe Thomas out of Wisconsin, who is one of the best left-tackle prospects we’ve seen in quite some time. My opinion of Thomas is surprisingly neutral; on one hand, he’s a Badger and automatically earns undying scorn. On the other, he skipped the draft to go fishing and has the sweetest aunt since Jemima. In the end, it’s a push.

Of course, the bigger move came later in the first round, when the Browns traded away next year’s first round pick to move up and select Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn. Quinn was long considered a top-5, and maybe even number-1, pick; a few lackluster games against tough defenses saw caused his stock to plummet. He held out for a while but is now in camp, and looked quite good in his first game action. I’d be surprised to see him start their opener, but with the likes of Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson holding down the position we will likely see a goodly amount of Quinn before the season is up.

He’ll have guys to throw to, when he does crack the lineup. Kellen Winslow might be somewhat of a loudmouth, but he’s shut up as of late and (more importantly) gotten healthy. Last year was his third season, but his first healthy one, and he played quite well (especially when you consider the drek that was getting him the ball). I like his chances to be an elite NFL tight-end as soon as a real QB arrives, especially now that his old college offensive coordinator (Rob Chudzinski) has been hired to run the Cleveland offense.

Receiver Braylon Edwards showed progress last year, but still needs to learn how to get open on a consistent basis. A real running game would probably help that process, but that’s one area Cleveland really lacks. They brought in Jamal Lewis over the offseason, but he doesn’t have any rubber left on his tires, let alone any tread. Finding a real back to compliment their passing weapons is going to be important for the Browns heading forward. Things are headed in a good direction in Cleveland, but the towel will remain quite brown this year. (Sorry, I can’t help myself.)

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

. . .and now we enter the part with the Really Good Teams. The Steelers had a bizarre season last year, led by Ben Roethlisberger and his string of ill health. By the time he had recovered from the combination of horrific motorcycle accident and emergency appendectomy, Roethlisberger was left with no time to prepare for the season. He never played well for anything resembling an extended stretch, but the Steelers are hoping with a quiet offseason he can come out firing in 2007. He’ll have to, because the division is brutal and there are plenty of changes afoot on his own team.

The major change comes at head coach, where The Chin retired and former Vikings defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin takes over. The interesting part of the switch to me is that Tomlin kept the majority of Bill Cowher’s staff in place, including defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. This is notable because while LeBeau has long run the Steelers defense as a 3-4 scheme, Tomlin has his own hefty defensive reputation with a 4-3 cover-2 system. A better reporter could probably tell you which style Pittsburgh is using, but I cannot find anything at all on the subject. If you know anything, drop a comment because I’d like to know. I’ve always been bothered by coaches who insist on arriving and implementing “their system” instead of tailoring their game plan around the personnel in place; if Tomlin is working closely with LeBeau instead of blowing up the 3-4, I’d be mighty impressed.

Regardless of the scheme, the defense is going to be really good. Joey Porter was let go, but the Steelers are hoping to be able to fill his spot at linebacker from within. Some of the saved money from Porter’s departure went to locking up safety Troy Polamalu to a long-term deal. He’s one of the very best safeties in the game and keeping him around is a great move.

The offense is likely to see even more of an overhaul then the defense. Cowher and his smash-mouth game are gone, and so is Jerome Bettis. Willie Parker is firmly established as the lead halfback, and he’s as close to an anti-Bettis as you can get. He’s blazingly fast and operates best in the open field, as opposed to the old-school between-the-tackles Steelers of lore. They’ll likely be passing more, too. Hines Ward remains a top-notch receiver, and word out of Steelers camp is that speedster Santonio Holmes has likely won the other starting wideout spot. Heath Miller is a very good tight end as well. Oh, and Gopher product Matt Spaeth is likely the #2 tight end, so ski-u-mah and so forth. Unfortunately, the large amount of upheaval and lingering doubts of Roethlisberger are enough to bump the Steelers down to the third spot.

2. Baltimore Ravens

Defense, defense, defense. It’s almost boring to talk about at this point, isn’t it? The Ravens have the best defense in football and control the game with it. Ed Reed is awesome. So is Chris McCallister. Ray Lewis isn’t nearly as awesome any more, but the excellent schemes put together by defensive coordinator Rex Ryan keep Lewis playing to his strengths while covering for his lost speed and slipping ability to shed oncoming guards.

The notable defensive change, as I noted in the AFC East preview, will be at outside linebacker, where Adalius Thomas bolted via free agency to the Patriots. The Ravens are hoping that fourth-year LB Jarret Johnson will be able to take over Thomas’s spot. The continued development of last year’s first rounder, nose tackle Haloti Ngata, combined with the freaky-good pass rushing of Terrell Suggs will likely do enough to offset Thomas’s lost sack total, so the team will look to Johnson to competently defend the run and drop into pass coverage.

Over on offense, the Ravens finally ditched the Remains of Jamal Lewis and obtained Willis McGahee from the Bills. This will free up the offense a bit, simply because McGahee will actually be able to run outside the tackles from time to time. He’s not an upper-echelon back, but with Lewis the Baltimore running game consisted mostly of the sledgehammer/battering ram approach. Lewis wasn’t particularly good at that, but he was horrendous trying to get outside, so a younger set of legs will help.

The gains in the running game are likely to be offset by a return to earth by the air attack. While it wasn’t stellar last year, the passing game led by Steve McNair was a revelation compared to the Kyle Boller show the Ravens had been running previously. Having a quarterback who actually knew how to, say, get rid of the ball before taking a sack was a boon. But McNair is a year older and on the downside of his career, as is his old Titans teammate and favored target Derrick Mason. Add that to the fact that teams will be looking to control McNair (likely by trying to force him out of the pocket, as he’s nearly immobile at this point) and the passing game won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year. That’s enough to drop them back to the #2 spot, although it’s likely sufficient to grab one of the two wild-card spots.

1. Cincinnati Bengals

In a division defined by its defenses, the Bengals are the glorious exception. Of course, this pick is conditional on coach Marvin Lewis managing to keep most of his players out of prison.

The Bengals were horrific on defense last year. Pretty much every time they matched up with a decent offensive team, they got hammered: 38 points allowed to the Patriots, 29 to the Falcons, 49 to the Chargers, 34 to the Colts. They did hold the Saints to 16, so they have that going for them. Luckily for them, the Bengals have a notable schedule edge over the Ravens. The AFC North is matched up with the weak NFC West, but Baltimore also gets non-divisional games against the Colts and Patriots. The Bengals? The Chiefs and Titans. That two-game schedule difference is going to be enough to put Cincy over the hump and back into the playoffs.

The Bengals should also see at least some defensive improvement. They somehow managed to grab Michigan corner Leon Hall with the 18^th pick in this year’s draft, and he should contribute in a weak secondary immediately. Second-year linebacker is likely going to play a bigger role as well, since promising young LB Odell Thurman will remain suspended for all of 2007 because of repeated law-and-liquor issues.

As long as the defense can keep the opposition under 30, the Bengals should like their chances. Carson Palmer showed notable improvement in the later stages of last year, after he looked a little rusty early on while working through the effects of his nasty knee injury. Now a full season removed from the knee surgery, Palmer is ready to solidify his status as one of the absolute best QBs in the game. He’s got the weapons to do the job, too. Receivers Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmandzadeh combine to form one of the top pass-catching duos in the league, and running back Rudi Johnson still has another productive year or two in him. It’ll all be enough to help the city of Cincinnati forget the horrors of Eric Milton and start thinking of playoff runs instead.

Next up: the AFC South

False Starts: The AFC East

2007-08-21T01:53:00.000-07:00

That sound you hear is the 2007 NFL season fast approaching. Larry Johnson is complaining, Michal Vick is pleading, and Randy Moss is thinking Super Bowl (homeboy!). The mindless dredge of the preseason will wrap up before you know it, and we can get down to the serious business of Football. With that in mind, I’ll be taking the next week and a half or so to run through each of the eight divisions to give you something to chew on between Johan starts. I’m staking my entire reputation as a football expert on the following picks of the order of finish in each division, so the pressure’s on. Today: the AFC East.

Props should go out in advance to the work of Football Outsiders and their book Pro Football Prospectus, both of which contribute greatly both in stats and unmediated awesomeness.

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The 100%-definitive, money-back-guaranteed, iron-clad-lock order of the 2007 AFC East:

4. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins had their pick of injured quarterbacks before the 2006 season. Presented with a choice between Drew Brees (bum shoulder) and Daunte Culpepper (bum knee), they went with the guy with the limp. (Never a good decision, in my experience.) We all know how that turned out: Daunte kept limping, Brees kept winning, and the Dolphins kept looking for someone to replace Dan Marino (who, by the way, appears to be attempting to match his skin tone with the Dolphins’ shade of orange). The Fins spent most of 2006 getting a taste of the Joey Harrington Experience, which is guaranteed only to end in tears.

The quarterback spot in 2007 isn’t likely to get much better. After an extended game of draft-pick chicken with Kansas City, Miami finally acquired 37-year-old Trent Green to man the helm. Green never looked right last year after going down with a pretty nasty concussion and hasn’t been much better in the preseason, but new coach Cam Cameron tabbed him as the official starter yesterday. Cleo Lemon (who, by the way, has one of the finest names in the history of naming things/persons) made a run at the spot, but Miami apparently prefers a guy who has vivid memories of Ronald Reagan’s first term.

In any case, the heir apparent at the position is 2007 second-rounder John Beck, although I use that term loosely. See, Beck played his college ball at BYU and completed his Mormon mission trip; the dude is already 26 years old (just a year younger than Lemon). He’s going to have to crack the starting lineup in a hurry, although the Fins thought highly enough of Beck to pass over Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn.

Instead, they used the ninth pick on Ohio State product Ted Ginn after he reportedly ran a 40-yard-dash time so fast he tore a hole in the fabric of space-time (or something like that). The only issue here is that (a) Ginn has an injured ankle and still isn’t running at full speed, and (b) he just isn’t a very good receiver. I guess that’s two issues, theoretically making the pick twice as bad. I suppose Ginn could prove me fantastically wrong, but I’ve never been wrong before about anything, so his odds aren’t good.

It’s all a shame, really, because running back Ronnie Brown is really good. He’s just surrounded by mediocre-at-best quarterbacks and awful receivers. (“#1” receiver Chris Chambers led the entire NFL last season in balls thrown his way that fell incomplete, and he was tied for fourth in dropped passes with former Dolphin Randy McMichael.) Last pre-season, the Dolphins were a rather trendy Super Bowl pick; nobody should be making that mistake again this year.

3. Buffalo Bills

Last year, while nobody was watching (well, at least, I wasn’t), J.P. Losman started to get good. This rather unexpected development has profoundly shaken anyone who has seen watched J.P. Losman play quarterback professionally for any length of time exceeding five minutes. I’ve begun to re-evaluate many deeply-beliefs in the wake of such strange happenings.

Losman was quite awful in 2005, his second pro season. He completed slightly less than half of his passes, threw as many picks as touchdowns (8), and sparked a locker-room mutiny in favor of playing Kelly Holcomb. In 2006, however, a new coach took over (Dick Jauron) and Losman improved pretty dramatically.

Instead of completing half of his passes, Losman connected on 62.5% in 2006. His interceptions as a percentage of passes thrown decreased only slightly, but he upped his touchdown rate by a significant margin. He’ll likely never be the most cautious QB in the league, but he suddenly appears to be on the right track.

A big part of Losman’s improvement came as a result of his rapport with receiver Lee Evans. (In fact, you could say that nearly all of Losman’s improvement came from Evans; according to Football Outsiders, only the Texans threw a higher percentage of passes to their number-one receiver.) Evans caught 82 balls for nearly 1300 yards and 8 scores; Josh Reed was second on the team with 410 yards receiving. The return of Peerless Price from his Atlanta purgatory was unimpressive; he just isn’t very good. Finding someone else to throw to, be it Reed, Roscoe Parrish, or the ghost of Eric Moulds, will be important to the Bills going forward.

The Bills’ two biggest offseason changes come at running back and corner; we’ll take the offensive side first. They dealt Willis McGahee to the Ravens and drafted Cal running back Marshawn Lynch; this is likely both addition by subtraction and addition by addition. McGahee is a decent back but not a great one, and he apparently thought Buffalo was the nicest town this side of Kabul (and made this known in the press). The only thing I know about Lynch is that he absolutely shredded the Gophers last year, and while that might not be the hardest thing to do I think he’ll be just fine as a replacement.

Buffalo also saw stud corner Nate Clements head west to San Francisco as a free agent, and replaced him with . . . nothing. I wish I had more to add here, but I don’t; I guess they’re content with Ashton Youboty or something, because as far as I can tell they didn’t do anything at all to replace one of the best corners in football. Maybe Marv Levy missed that signing during one of his naps.

2. New York Jets

The big problem with writing a preview like this as late in the preseason as I am is coming up with something unique to say about a team like the Jets. Everybody and their grandmother seems to have about the same opinion on Gang Green this year: last season’s success was a bit fluky and likely the product of playing a weak schedule; this year, when luck balances out and the schedule toughens, they are likely to see a worse record while also improving as a team. This is fast becoming gospel when it comes to the Jets, and I can’t come up with a convincing argument otherwise.

The Jets are clearly a team headed in the right direction, and within the next couple of seasons they are going to be contending for championships. They will not, however, win ten games again this year. Eight, or maybe nine, sounds about right. Last season saw them matching up with teams from the AFC South and NFC North, neither or which are among the league’s more robust divisions. This year’s collection of NFC East and AFC North squads will be a much stiffer test.

In any case, the Jets have plenty going for them in the long run. Coach Eric Mangini is headed into his second year, and he looks to be one of the best young coaches in all of football. He clearly took plenty of notes in his time under Bill Belichick in New England (although he skipped the part about not coaching the Jets) and will have had another year to get his preferred 3-4 defense in place. One of the more important sub-plots of the Jets’ 2007 season will be the continued adjustment of linebacker Jonathan Vilma to that new defensive scheme; he was a monster in the old 4-3 system but didn’t take particularly well to Mangini’s new system last year.

The Jets have their own long-term quarterback question as well. Chad Pennington survived a 16-game schedule for the first time in his career in 2006, but expecting that streak of health to continue uninterrupted through 2007 is an exercise in stupidity. Fortunately for everyone (except, perhaps, Pennington), the Jets have both his short- and long-term replacement waiting in the wings in the person of one Kellen Clemens. Everybody seems convinced that he’s a stud, and I have no reason to dispute that. Plus, I assume he can throw the ball more than fifteen yards, which is something Pennington is incapable of doing.

1. New England Patriots

The Patriots will win the Super Bowl this year.

How’s that for a preview, eh? Certified Miss Cleo-level stuff. No qualifiers: the Patriots are the best team in football, and they will win the Super Bowl.

I suppose in the spirit of a preview column I should elaborate, but it seems a bit unnecessary. In any case, here goes:

The Patriots very nearly went to the Super Bowl last year, only falling short when they fell apart against the Colts in the AFC Championship game. They proceeded to spend the offseason fixing pretty much every problem they had, while hanging on to every key piece. That’s a pretty decent recipe for success.

Linebackers Mike Vrabel and Teddy Bruschi are getting old and can’t cover the whole field like they used to; to compensate, the Pats signed stud LB Adalius Thomas away from Baltimore. Thomas can hold down more of the pass-coverage duties, freeing Vrabel and Brushi to play closer to the line of scrimmage and help against the run, where their reduced speed is less of an issue. They drafted stud safety Brandon Merriweather from Miami to cover themselves when (not if) starter Rodney Harrison gets hurt.

Tom Brady didn’t have anybody to throw to last year; Reche’ Caldwell’s gigantic, planet-sized eyes proved to be unreliable as a number-one receiver. To compensate, the Patriots brought in four new receivers. Kelley Washington just signed, and is far from guaranteed to make the team because of how many receivers the Pats have on their roster right now.

They didn’t just randomly sign guys, either; the pass-catchers they brought in make sense playing together. We all know Randy Moss; he isn’t what he used to be, of course, but I have no doubt that he still can stretch the field. He doesn’t even have to do that, however, because Donte’ Stallworth is a professional field-stretcher. With Moss and Stallworth heading downfield, the Pats need someone to fill in the underneath routes. They already have a good tight end (Ben Watson), but they added receiver Wes Welker from the Dolphins anyway, who excels from the slot and in working the intermediate patterns. Plus, assuming his shoulder injury is not overly serious, they have Kool-Aid Maroney to handle the bulk of the rushing duties.

Oh yeah, and that Brady guy is pretty good too. And that Belichick fellow, although his mother clearly didn’t teach him how to properly dress himself. . . .

Next up: the AFC North

Johan Throws Down the Gauntlet

2007-08-20T13:20:00.000-07:00

Can enough be said about Johan's masterful performance against the Rangers? I mean, really--how often does a player, in any sport, dominant in the way he did? Out of 26 batters he faced, he got 24 out and he struck out 17. And he did something else--he let it be known that he would not let his Cy Young Award go quietly into that good night--no, he is going to rage, rage against Danny Haren, Eric Bedard and the dying of the light.

Right now, Johan Santana's record is at 13-9, with a 2.88 ERA, 175.0 IP, 191 K, 39 BB and a 1.01 WHIP. He seems to have six main competitors right now; Danny Haren, Kelvim Escobar, Erik Bedard, Josh Beckett, John Lackey and C.C. Sabathia. Here's where they each stand:

Danny Haren: 13-4, 2.54 ERA, 173.3 IP, 138 K, 1.13 WHIP
Kelvim Escobar: 13-6, 2.68 ERA, 158.0, 124 K, 1.18 WHIP
Erik Bedard: 12-4, 2.98 ERA, 169.0 IP, 207 K, 1.08 WHIP
Josh Beckett: 15-5, 3.15 ERA, 154.3 IP, 148 K, 1.10 WHIP
John Lackey: 15-7, 3.32 ERA, 165.3 IP, 129 K, 1.28 WHIP
C.C. Sabathia: 14-6, 3.43 ERA, 189 IP, 168 K, 1.17 WHIP

Only Haren and Escobar have better ERAs, while only Bedard has more strikeouts. No AL pitcher has a better WHIP and Beckett, Lackey and Sabathia all trail Johan in every category except W-L. When it comes to VORP, Haren leads with 52.9, but Johan and Bedard trail by only .4 with both pitchers having VORP of 52.5. Escobar is the only other AL pitcher with a VORP over 45, with 50.8.

Each pitcher has around 8 starts left, more than enough to break away from the pack. And sadly, one of the determining factors will be the pitcher's win loss-record. As we saw in 2005, a pitcher with 20 wins is the favorite, especially if they are the only starter to get that many. That doesn't bode well for Johan's chances. Nor does the fact that he has the most losses of the group, with 9. Realistically, it would seem that he has to get to at least 18 wins (no AL starting pitcher has won the Cy Young without winning 18 games and the two NL winners were special cases). He also has to make a run at Erik Bedard and Dan Haren for the strikeout and ERA lead and that's not going to be easy for Johan either--his next start is against Baltimore, an average offensive team (8th in the AL) that doesn't strike out a lot (4th fewest in the AL, 5th fewest in MLB) and it looks like he face Cleveland and Detroit twice and Chicago, Texas and Boston. Finally, the Twins have to score him enough runs to prevent him from picking up more than one more loss. Pat Hentgen, Jack McDowell and Roger Clemens have all won the Cy Young since 1990 in the AL with 10 losses, but the last AL pitcher to do so with more than 10 losses was Jim Palmer in 1976.

So can Johan pitch well enough to win the Cy Young award for the second consecutive year? Of course he can--he's Johan Santana. Whether the Twins can score him enough runs, however, is a whole 'nother story.

Who's to Blame?

2007-08-11T21:47:00.000-07:00

I watched tonight's loss against the Angels over at my folks' place with my dad. It's odd that a son ends up shaping his father's views on baseball, but through continued exposure to my griping, my old man has joined the dark side and is now just as mildly annoyed with the collection of replacement-level slap-hitters the Twins try to foist on their fans as major league hitters on a daily basis. (How's that for a run-on?)

I wasn't really bothered by tonight's loss. Pat Neshek left two fastballs up and paid the price with three runs being driven in on those two pitches. Neshek has been stellar this season and everyone is entitled to a bad night. My father, on the other hand, faulted Nick Puta, who missed Mauer's one-hop throw to third on the Willits-Figgins double steal (despite Mauer being charged with the error in accordance with the technicalities of the scoring rule). My father's point of view was that if Puta isn't in the game to play solid, if not exceptional, defense than what business does he have staying in the major leagues?

It got me thinking. Why do a lot of Twins fans cheer for these horrible, punchless hitters? You know what the Piranhas really do? They give guys like Matt Garza a 1-3 record to go along with a 1.70 ERA.

As horrible as Puta has been, was worse is that the Twins have stooped to using Jason Tyner as their DH in 17 different games! Jason Tyner. At a position where there are absolutely no defensive requirements and a player's entire worth is his production at the plate. Tyner responded with a .218/.295/.255 line in those 17 games (.550 OPS). Here are the OPS leaders among major league pitchers with at least 10 plate appearances:

Better Than Tyner as DH (+.550 OPS):

1. J.D. "The Real Deal" Durbin - 13 PA/.818 OPS
2. Jo Jo Reyes - 10/.750
3. Adam Wainwright - 50/.700
4. Kip Wells - 42/.683
5. Brad Penny - 55/.682
6. Carlos Zambrano - 65/.639
7. Bobby Livingston - 26/.636
8. Aaron Cook - 60/.629
9. Micah Owings - 39/.626
10. Chris Capuano - 39/.598
11. Kyle Davies - 30/.596
12. Freddie Garcia - 22/.594
13. Jorge Sosa - 29/.588
14. Tom Glavine - 57/.581

Better Than Nick Puta (+.520 OPS)

15. Shawn Chacon - 13/.545
16. Matt Morris - 50/.542
17. Braden Looper - 43/.525

Crap! The Twins were fools to place Durbin on waivers! He could have been their DH. (Hey, don't laugh, it's not any more idiotic than playing Tyner there...)

The Twins, as an organization, don't understand offense. Their first round draft pick this past June doesn't even weight 160 pounds. Their manager speaks of terrible, punchless slap hitters as being able to "do things with the bat". The homer beat writers are too gutless to follow that statement up by asking if any of those "things" are baseball related. The Pirhanas even get their own television commercials and the fans get a third place team as a result. You can't pack a line-up four-to-five deep with guys that can't punish mistakes and expect to contend.

Is anyone else getting annoyed?

(If you plan on making excuses on behalf of the Twins in the comments section, please avoid the trite and ridiculous claim that the Twins can't afford power and on-base guys as a small market team. Oakland's market is just as small as Minnesota's and further worsened by the fact that the A's fan base has the lowest per-capita income in baseball. But they're the same organization that spawned the bash brothers, Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada and others. And small or large market, the Twins are the only team to just come off a 20-year 30-homerun hitter drought, and it would have been an even longer drought if major league baseball hadn't moved the manufacture of their baseballs from Hati to the Dominican Republic in 1987, touching off a noticeable spike in homeruns league-wide.)

The Freshmen

2007-08-09T17:27:00.000-07:00

I’ll be honest with you: rookies are awesome. For someone like myself who enjoys the off-field/player-development side of the game as much (if not more) than the on-field action, a player’s rookie year represents the final frontier, as it were: it’s the crossing-over point, and it’s what I always have (at least unconsciously) in the back of my mind when I’m eyeing some AA scrub’s line. So instead of wallowing in that horrific 1-0 game against the Royals, I’m going to spend a bit of time with 2007’s rookie class.

Over in the National League, the rookie story has been over in Milwaukee. Ryan Braun is outclassing pretty much the entire field and looks to be a lock for the NL Rookie of the Year award. None of this is any secret, of course, but it’s worth considering just how good Braun has been so far. The Crew are just barely hanging on in the Central, and Braun is one of a handful of players (along with Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, et. al.) keeping them with the Cubs. Braun has only racked up 272 at-bats, having been left off of the opening day roster because of an annoying tendency to air-mail throws from third into the eighth row. But since getting the nod at the hot corner, Braun has done nothing but rake.

His current line is monstrous; .349/.395/.665 will play. He’s got a shot at the batting title if he can get enough plate appearances to qualify (current leader Hanley Ramirez is hitting .342), and his 21 homers along with 17 doubles make him the kind of monster that the Brewers have needed.

An injured right wrist has submarined Hunter Pence’s ROY candidacy, but he was putting up a seriously impressive line before he got hurt. For a pretty crappy Houston team, his .330/.355/.564 while playing a solid center field was a real bright spot. The Astros are understandably being cautious with his injury with nothing to play for this year, but at 24 years old Pence should be roaming that stupid hill in Houston for quite a few years.

I haven’t been shy about my Diamondback love in the past, and while their 2007 rookie results have been mixed, there’s still plenty to be excited about. Shortstop Stephen Drew has been a big disappointment, as has outfielder Carlos Quentin. However, Chris Young has scratched out a decent little year (although he’s struggled at times getting on base). The real story is 19-year-old Justin Upton getting the call to the big leagues. He’s got 7 hits in his first 21 at-bats, including his game on Tuesday when he went 3-4 with a double, a triple, and his first career homer. Getting mentioned in the same breath as Ken Griffey is no small feat; I’m pretty pumped for the Justin Upton era.

As far as NL pitching goes, Tim Lincecum is the story. He’s been at times outright dominating (113 K’s in just 105 innings) all while shaving about as often as Scott Baker. With a 3.59 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, he’s been doing it well so far (while also having the most awesome delivery of all time).

The story among AL rookies has been the Japanese imports, led by Daisuke Matsuzaka. Some may quibble with the rookie status of Japanese players (ask Hideki Matsui and Angel Berroa about that one), but as long as the current rules stand, Matsuzaka deserves the ROY this year. Striking out a batter per inning, while posing a 3.70 ERA in Fenway is mighty impressive for anyone, especially someone adjusting to a new continent. Boston’s other Japanese rookie, reliever Hideki Okajima, has been awfully good as well, with a sub-1 ERA in 51 games and an All-Star appearance under his belt.

There have been some impressive AL bats as well, although super-prospect Alex Gordon hasn’t been one of them. He’s hitting a very up-and-down .236/.311/.375 with 8 homers, although for someone learning on the job having never played at AAA, we can afford to give him a free year.

Dustin Pedroia has been busy making many a stat-head happy. Long a favorite of Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection system, Pedroia is validating those expectations with a very solid .326/.399/.447 as the starting 2B in Boston. He’s no superstar, but a very capable player having a wonderful rookie campaign.

Delmon Young has been solid, but a few question-marks remain in terms of his future as a superstar. His .297 AVG is nice, but with only 20 walks to 87 strikeouts and a .328 OPB, he’s going to have to master the strike zone a bit more. He’s only put up 9 homers in 454 at-bats on his way to a .419 SLG, but at age 21 we can afford to wait as the power (hopefully) develops.

Of course, there are other good stories, like Josh Hamilton’s comeback from serious drug problems, or the way Akinori Iwamura has settled in nicely as a competent placeholder at 3B in Tampa. But unfortunately I am behind schedule and late for a birthday party. Oh, the trials and tribulations of life, right? I’ll leave you all now to ponder the Fate of Matt Garza . . .

GameDay Is On Facebook

2007-08-07T20:01:00.000-07:00

The group is open to employees and patrons (i.e. everyone):

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=4591850459&ref=mf

The Northwoods Beat: The Home Stretch!

2007-08-07T11:19:00.000-07:00

There are always two kinds of horses in every race. The ones who want to get out front and just dominate the entire distance and the sleeper - that horse that will pace itself with the back of the pack, just waiting for the big burst at the end.

The Northwoods League is looking the same way right now. Duluth has held the front spot in the North Division for most of the second half. Both Alexandria and Mankato are within striking distance (2 and 2.5 games back respectively), but with less than a week left their time is running out.

And then there's the South. The once mighty Wisconsin Woodchucks, a team that looked unstoppable a couple of weeks ago, have fallen to third place. The Eau Claire Express have played well for most of the second half and are still holding on to a tenous lead over the charging Madison Mallards, and they're doing it with style. I was at Carson Park to watch my hapless La Crosse Loggers do battle with the Express on Sunday evening. After a seesaw battle, the Logger entered the bottom of the ninth with a one-run lead. Single, walk, single and then BAM! Dominic Piazza crushed - and I do mean crushed - a grand slam into the trees over the right field fence.

Then the Express did it again on Monday. The capped the series with a two-out rally in the ninth to beat the Loggers again. I'm tellin' ya, if these guys hang on to their lead and make the playoffs, it'll be worth the trip to Eau Claire. Beautiful park hosting great baseball.

...and away we Go

2007-08-05T23:21:00.000-07:00

Well, this is kinda fun, isn't it?

That's what I was thinking around the seventh inning or so of Sunday's game against Cleveland. We can say all kinds of things about it, really; the Arrival of Scott Baker, the statement of Belonging from Alexi Casilla. Hell, Baker's catch in the eighth was easily the most gratifying moment of the season (and probably longer). But all any of it really means is: We've got fifty games of fun.

In fact, this unlikely little run (however long it lasts) is probably all the more fun because of how flawed the team is. Third base is still a black hole of Sadness, and I'm not even sure DH as a position exists any more. But after all, everyone loves a bit of Degree of Difficulty, right?

It's worth keeping in mind how much closer this horse race could be. How many losses were Sidney Ponson, Starting Pitcher Ramon Ortiz, or Rondell White worth? Half a dozen? More? Who knows; the Twins might already have been setting up their playoff rotation. Who should get the nod in game 2? I vote for Boof--I think Garza would be a perfectly demoralizing game 3 starter with whom to snare the first one in Anaheim . . .

Ah, what could have been--fun to think about, but it is imperative that we keep focus on the here and now; after all, we've still got a couple of pesky squads in front . . . at least for now. But this squad has the Fire in them, and if the playoff spot isn't locked up before the final four game set in Fenway, I'll eat my (highly proverbial) hat . . .

Say what you will about the Unbalanced Schedule, but it does wonders for the drama. Aside from a set in Baltimore later this month and the season-ender in Boston, the Twins are finished with the East. A single road series in Anaheim will be a bit tricky, but winning five of the six home contests with Texas (sans Teixeira/Gagne, to boot) should be quite possible. I don't buy Seattle (three home, three away) at all; they should remember any second now how good they really are (not) and kindly move over into the right lane for slower moving traffic . . .

Ten games against Kansas City? I'll have seconds, please. The White Sox are worth the Attorney General's power of recall (except, apparently, against Detroit . . .), and Ozzie seems to like the Twins more anyway and can doubtless be relied upon for a few timely favors/Gavin Floyd appearances. Cleveland and Detroit have eight left to beat up on each other as well. Yes sir; everything's coming up Gardenhire.

Perhaps (read: probably (read: undoubtedly)) I have just been gripped by the Fever, and when I wake up tomorrow morning (read: afternoon) I'll have my proper perspective on the Doom that is likely to befall us all before September ends. But perhaps not; these are heady times in the Metrodome, and we're still months upon months away from the triumphant return of the NBA. So toss another log on the fire, friends, and hunker down. Whatever we're in for, it's sure to be something . . .

The Northwoods Beat: Only 2 Weeks Left!

2007-07-30T11:38:00.000-07:00

Okay. I'll admit it. I was on vacation for a week and I was taking some classes so I sorta let my attention slip. When I finally settled back into my real life and looked at the standings my first though was, "Where in the hell did Madison come from?" Over the last couple of weeks the Mallards have put together an 11-2 record including a current 6-game winning streak. That has put them right in the hunt for the South Division second-half title along with Eau Claire and the Wisconsin Woodchucks. Sadly, my La Crosse Loggers (What? I'm supposed to be unbiased?) have sunk to 6-15, the worst record in the league. How do you have the most All-Stars and the worst record? No pitching.

In the North, it appears that Duluth may be running away with it, but there are several teams within striking distance. We may see a mad streak (winning OR losing) decide the fate of the North during these last couple of weeks.

Hmm...the Loggers play in Eau Claire this coming Sunday. I think I feel a road trip coming on.

Northwoods Adventure: The Duck Pond

2007-07-30T09:18:00.000-07:00

Some of the best days are really just random occurrences, aren't they? A couple of weeks ago, I glanced at the schedule of my beloved La Crosse Loggers and saw that they were due to play in Madison on a Sunday afternoon. I called my buddy to see if he was up for it and the plan was set. Jonny and Ty at the Duck Pond for an afternoon game. Nothing fancy. No getting wild. Just a game and then back to La Crosse because I do have a day job that requires my attendance on Monday morning.

My first impression of the Duck Pond, home to the Madison Mallards, was that it looked big. For the Northwoods League, it's a pretty big stadium. And though we arrived an hour and a half before game time, there was a HUGE line waiting outside the gate and even some tailgaters! Okay, so Madison can draw 6-7000 fans per game. I get that. But they all show up early to party? Nice.

As we approached the ticket window on this sunny and 80 degree day, a man broke ranks from the giant line, ran up to us and offered us two tickets. Free. I thanked him, grabbed the tickets, looked at Jonny and said, "Buddy, I think I'm feeling some karma here." I had no idea.

Once we were inside the stadium, we were blown away by the amount of space...and food that the Duck Pond has. Hot dogs, Chicago hot dogs, pulled pork, grilled corn, turkey legs, and (I tear up just remembering)they were roasting a pig. Yep. Apparently it's not every game, but on that day they were roasting a whole pig. Wow. What could be better than that? Great Dane beer! So, we loaded up and found our seats.

It turned out that our seats were very nice bleacher seats not far from first base. Not too shabby for freebies. Then, a young couple (Adam and Julia) arrived and sat immediately in front of us. During the course of the game we got to know them pretty well. Jonny got along with Adam and I tried to convince Julia that I was her long lost soul mate. A few innings, and a few Old Glory Pale Ales, later we were all the best of friends.

After the game, (how did the game get lost in the shuffle here? Logger blew it in the ninth.) we went on a mission to find Maynard the Mallards mascot. He'd actually spoken to me earlier in the game and until then I'd never realized how creepy it is when full-suit mascots speak. Anyway, Jonny and I always get a classic "thumbs-up" picture with the mascot. However, the game is done and we're half in the bag. After looking for awhile, a Duck Pond employee tells us that the mascot already took off! No! After a little coaxing, this guy went and actually put the Maynard outfit on just to let us have our photo op. I would feel a little guilty, but I really think we helped him achieve a dream of his, too.

What next? Adam and Julia wanted us to go out. For the sake of keeping this under 8000 words I'll give you the short version. I called into work to say tomorrow was not gonna happen. Then we went out to eat and drink at a fine Madison establishment only to dine and dash. That's a new one for me. From there it was on to BW3's for some trivia and then to a place called "Visions." If you've never had the pleasure of visiting Visions, just think of an old garage with a few strippers and Fabio behind the bar. Seriously, I'm really trying to win over Julia by this point. No dice, but she was a very good sport.

Jump ahead...Monday morning. Jonny and I wake up on a nice leather couch (separately) in a very nice condo. Julia and Adam are gone. I assume they went to work, but had no reservations about the two yahoos they met at the game last night. I had a hangover to equal the day after my 21st birthday and we had to get back to La Crosse.

What's the moral of this story? If you love baseball and you want to party, you don't need to drop all that money to sit in the bleachers at Wrigley, hit the Duck Pond. It's amazing. Next up...a review of my trip to see the Wisconsin Woodchucks.

Apex of Nerddom: SABR 37 Convention Log

2007-07-26T21:22:00.000-07:00

WEDNESDAY

Not much goes down on the Wednesday before the convention officially begins the following Thursday. The only reason I showed up so early was to attend the Retrosheet.org workshop. If you aren't already familiar with Retrosheet, it's the greatest baseball website of all time, with box scores and play-by-play data for thousands upon thousands of Major League games.

People came from as far away as Japan to talk databases with the Retrosheet crew (Clem Comly giving instruction at the front of the room).

David Vincent, the statistician often cited by ESPN, and Dave Smith, the founder of Retrosheet teach from the back of the room with the help of a projector (and painful Hawaiian shirts). They could have told the workshop that their favorite hobbies were strangling kittens and drowning puppies and I'd still rank them among the finest human beings ever to grace the planet.

Once I had had my fill of DOS based applications and Access databases, I met up with my friend Eric (a St. Louis native) so he could take us out for barbecue. Shortly thereafter we found ourselves at Smokin' Al's Barbecue.

The before. (That Texas toast, after soaking up all the extra grease and sauce from the ribs, is almost as good as the ribs.)

Eric during.

The after.

It was getting late and we were still sober for the most part, so off we went to the Morgan Street Brewery for $3.75 micro brews and pool.

I pose with the infamous Black Sox.

Kevin and Eric sample the goods.

Me blowing yet another game of pool (thankfully we weren't playing for money or I'd have had to sign my condo and car over to Eric).

It was getting late so we paid our $75.00 tab and stumbled back to our hotel where we bid Eric farewell. Things were going to begin in full at 9:00 AM the next morning so there was only time for...

Me to take a barbecue and beer fueled dump that melted porcelain.

I'm having some internet issues in my hotel room, so I don't know if I can keep writing updates while I'm still in St. Louis, but I am taking good notes and pictures and have plenty to write about when I get back. I'm typing this after midnight on Friday morning. It was hard to find the time before it began to take five minutes to upload each photo. Don't worry, though. I'm here living it up to the fullest extent I can (bearing in mind this is a giant sausage fest and I'm one of a dozen members without an AARP card).

-Kyle

This Bud's For... Who?

2007-07-26T19:11:00.000-07:00

Oh, the trials and tribulations of leadership. Heavy lies the crown, as they say. That seems to be the case now more than ever, at least when it comes to the commissioners around these parts. The good Mr. Goodell appears to have inherited the major-sports equivalent of Alcatraz, David Stern has a ref with mob hooks in him, and nobody can even find Gary Bettman’s product if they tried. But Bud Selig has a hefty problem of his own (one that seems to be getting bigger as time goes by—at least, if you measure by hat size).

It really is pretty impressive how badly Bud has blown the last few years of the Barry Bonds Situation., but it should not come as a surprise. In fact, we learned all we needed to know about how Bud operates from the All-Star Game tie from a few years ago. That was a weird little spot he was in; in fact, I think he made the right call ending the game when he did. The important part, however, was how he looked making the decision. Instead of some kind of forceful, confident “Sorry, but in the best interests of the health of our players…” statement, we all got to watch Selig looking around, bewildered. He looked lost; unsure of himself. It’s that habit of projecting incompetence, even when he’s actually making a quality decision, which defines Bud as a commissioner.

I happen to think Selig should be there when Barry Bonds hits 756. But that’s really irrelevant here. Bud had two options—simple, straightforward, and tough to screw up. He could have justified either one of them. If he wanted to attend, all he needed to do is remind people that Bonds has in fact never run afoul of any baseball rules, and as such it would be pure speculation for the Commish to pass such judgment. After all, 756 should be a celebration of baseball history, and the sport deserves to have a night to honor its past.

The justification for not attending is just as clear, if perhaps gutsier (so it’s no surprise that Bud decided to go). This would have seen Selig taking a principled stand, pointing out that while everyone involved in baseball for the last twenty years is in part responsible for the steroid problem, and while Bonds may not have been caught, he has clearly done irreparable damage to the history books. I would have disagreed with Bud on this one, but at least I would have been able to respect him for making a straightforward call.

It’s not like I’m expecting Bud (or anyone in leadership) to be some kind of rock-solid bastion of moral certitude. And it’s alright for someone to change his/her mind (don’t get me started on flip-flopping and all of that crap about leaders needing to be completely steadfast at all times), but Bud didn’t do anything at all for far too long. Jayson Stark at ESPN writes that Selig likely made his decision to attend now only because he had run out of time with Hall-of-Fame weekend approaching. He was “boxed in.” And that’s exactly the problem. Bud’s plans should never have been a story at all, just like the ASG shouldn’t have been much of a big deal. But instead of getting out in front of the issue and being forceful, Bud sat back and let the question of his attendance take on a life of its own. It’s looming large now. If he had made his intentions known a month ago, the story would already have died down. But all his indecision did was bring even further negative light upon the record and the game itself.

Every so often we hear about the “best interest of baseball” clause that the commissioner can deploy as he sees fit. Unfortunately, it’s pretty clear that the man currently with his finger on the button doesn’t have the first clue. He was as major a player as any in letting steroids become the problem they are today, he’s put together the ridiculous Mitchell Commission instead of putting the focus on baseball’s excellent new testing program, and he’s let the Bonds issue mushroom out of control. It would be nice to have a leader that would, you know… lead.

Apex of Nerddom: SABR 37 Convention Log

2007-07-25T10:40:00.000-07:00

TUESDAY

I left the familiar confines of St. Paul at 6:00 PM Tuesday evening with my close friend Kevin and 2004 Individual Trivia Champion Cary Smith. In the SABR universe Kevin and I are nobodies. We haven't published any books. We haven't done any statistical analysis of note. We aren't one of the many volunteers and elected officials that power the organization. And we aren't trivia champions like Cary. But we do like drinking a lot of beer, watching major league baseball in out-of-town ballparks, getting exposed to new research, meeting a whole slew of knowledgeable baseball fans from around the country (and world), and blowing town for a few days every summer.

The trip started off with a good omen. Two hours before I was scheduled to hop in my car, rendezvous with my two travel companions and head out onto the open road, the postman delivered my Screw Everyone... I Love Bonds tee shirt just in time for the convention.

The only problem we faced was having to drive through Iowa. To say there is nothing in Iowa is an understatement. We found no traces of the ghost of Kerouac or the prettiest girls in the world. In fact, even the information signs where barren.

Most of the Gas, Food, and Lodging sings we passed looked like the one pictured above. Give Iowa credit, at least they're optimistic, holding out hope that there will someday be gas, food, and lodging along their state and interstate highways.

Around 10:00 PM we realized that we were four hours into our trip and hadn't (a) consumed any beer nor (b) watched any baseball (although we were listening to XM in the car and Pat Neshek's bludgeoning at the hands of the Blue Jays). We decided to stop in Waterloo, Iowa to get the trip back on track.

Becks's Sports Brewery seems like the greatest idea in restaurant history, combining a sports bar with a microbrewery. Hopes were high.

Cary and Kevin sample the beer. Cary was nice enough to sympathize with me having to drive and just ordered a ten-ounce to start. Kevin has both a 22-ounce and a shit-eating grin on his face, reveling in my sobriety.

I enjoy my solitary brew of the night and rep the Twins as the Iowans around me (off camera) cheer on the Cubs in their game against the Cardinals.

Fortunately for me, the beer wasn't that good. You could taste the good, dark beer that had existed in the past but had since been drowned into mediocrity. It was like needing a coke fix only to have half of what you snort turn out to be baking powder. The beer was also served really cold, and could have benefited from a serving at cask temperature. I guess the type of folks who frequent sports bars in Waterloo, Iowa want at Miller Light even when they're not drinking Miller Light.

The sandwiches were as forgettable as the beer, but the fries were great.

We hopped back on the road and almost made it to Missouri before having to refuel. We pulled into a huge truck stop along a state highway.

Kevin and I both got a Maximum Overdrive vibe from the place, and we knew that if things went wrong Emilio Estevez wasn't around to bail us out.

Shooting over tons of poorly designed elevations and curves along a two-lane Highway 61, we were too scared to nod off despite our trip crawling into the early hours of the morning. Finally, around 3:30 AM we rolled into St. Louis and found our hotel.

Kevin and I passed out immediately upon coming in contact with our beds, but Cary had to register for his fall classes at 6:00 AM and figured he might as well stay up as our drive came to a close.

I'm writing this from lulls in the convention's Retrosheet Workshop, and while sitting in a class taught by Dave Smith is a nerd's dream come true, I'll hold off on the details until I post my Wednesday recap some time tomorrow.

-Kyle

The Northwoods Beat: Time to Sink or Swim

2007-07-23T16:16:00.000-07:00

With only four weeks left in the 2007 season the playoff picture in the Northwoods League is starting to take shape. True, there's still time for a couple of teams to turn around their second half, but we're a good 2/3 of the way through the season and if you can't tell the teams who are stacked from the teams who hack, you're just not paying much attention.

In the South, it appears to be a duel between the Wisconsin Woodchucks and the Eau Claire
Express. At 11-3 and 10-3 respectively, they have a good jump on any other team that matters in the division. (Green Bay's right there, but after winning the first half of the season, they're already guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.)

The North is a considerably closer division, yet the Duluth Huskies seem to be the most consistent winner. However, the basement dwelling Thunder Bay Bordercats are only 4 games back if that gives you any indication of how tight that race is. Oddly, the St. Cloud River Bats, the first half winner, are second to last with a record of 6-8.

If you don't care about the teams and you're just wondering what stars are shining the brightest in this hopeful league, this past week surely did not disappoint. On the 16th, Andy Marks, a lefty out of Kansas tossed seven innings of no-hit ball with 12 k's for the Duluth Huskies. The game was the first of a doubleheader in which the teams only play 7 innings in each game.

The very next night, Wisconsin Woodchuck, Notre Dame's Jeremy Barnes, proved that hitting is alive and well as he swung his lumber to the tune of a 4-for-6, 3 HR, 2B, 9 RBI, 4 R night. Barnes' night tied the team record for home runs in a game and set the team record for RBI in a single game.

Check back later this week as I relive one of the best days of my life...a trip to the Duck Pond in Madison. Late inning heroics, great beer, misdemeanors, and one spooky mascot.

The Sweep In Pictures

2007-07-19T14:55:00.000-07:00

What's the difference between being 3 games back and 9 game backs? The ability to use a bat when it matters.

The rare assis auriculus

Five runs in three games does not demonstrate that ability. Of course, the problem wasn't necessarily getting runners on base (at least not after the first game). Rather, the problem was that the Twins couldn't come through in the clutch. They stranded eleven runners in scoring position and ran their way out of other opportunities as well. And they did it in the most infuriating fashion. They hit into double plays and they watched three straight strikes without moving their bat from their shoulder (Jason Kubel, I'm looking at you, eh). They popped up and swung at ball four. They did it all.

A key part missing from the Twin's Offensive Engine

If they had done the little things right, they might still have been able to pull out the series. Instead, they compounded their problems with mental (and physical) errors. A costly error by Jason Bartlett in the first game and poor fielding by Nick Punto and Jason Tyner in the seventh inning of the final game were too much for the Twins weak offense to overcome.

The message Gardy saw after the Twins' mistakes

And if just one Twin had actually gotten a hit each of the last two games, we would all be singing a different song.

The sheet music for "Stocking up for Next Year"

They didn't, however. Which is why the Tiger's have a nine game lead, the Twins have two of their four real hitters battling injuries and it looks like it's time to see if Terry Ryan can unload some of his free agents to bring in a center fielder, third baseman and DH for next year. On a positive note (and it's always important to find a positive note), at least we'll get to watch Scott Baker and Matt Garza figure out how to use their abilities and become quality starters.

STOP THE PINK

2007-07-18T22:58:00.000-07:00

by Maggie Lofboom

All right. Things have officially gotten out of hand. It's time for an intervention. We need to stop the ever-growing legions before they overwhelm us and destroy everything we've worked so hard to build. Their numbers are great, but our will is greater. This is a call to arms for female sports fans everywhere: STOP THE PINK.

What IS it with pink sports gear? I don't understand. The pink shirts, the pink jerseys, and the worst: the pink caps. Ladies, why are we choosing to support our team with a cap that doesn't include even ONE of their colors? Fellow Twins gals, are we worried that the menfolk might forget we're women if we wear a hat in the standard navy? Are we worried that we'll plop a navy cap on our heads and, POOF!...our femininity will vanish and instead we'll be a bunch of ogreish hags? Rest assured, I’ve worn my trusty navy wool cap for YEARS and I'm pretty sure the males around me are still aware that I'm a woman.

And girls, if you think that pink cap makes you look like a sport-savvy gal who really knows her baseball team, you are sorely mistaken. A pink hat is pretty much the kiss of death for anyone who wants to be taken seriously at a sporting event. A pink hat says you're there for Johan Santana's charming smile and not for his changeup of doom. A pink hat says you know one stat and one stat alone: who on our team is married, and who isn't. A pink hat says you are someone who doesn't understand the count. In short, a pink hat labels you as a fawning, clueless, nitwit girl.

And even if you aren't really concerned about baseball (which begs the question: why are you at the game?), do you really want to be thought of as a nitwit? It's very aggravating for those of us who take the game seriously, because there is nothing in life more vexatious to the spirit than the clueless girls opening their mouths and making the rest of us look bad.

That's the real tragedy of Pink Hat Nation: that the rest of us (you know, the ones who wear NAVY Twins caps) suffer as a result. The tiresome task of proving I know as much (or in many cases, more) than most men about the game and this team is made more arduous by the fact that the Pink Hats are the most vocal among us, and when they lapse into transports of ecstasy over the players, think they speak for the rest of us as well.

Now, as a heterosexual woman, I can admit that some players are better-looking than others. For instance, I'd be lying if I said that I don't take a good, long, thirsty look when Jason Bartlett is up to bat. But, I also happen to know the he's our everyday shortstop, his average is .256, he has 17 stolen bases in 18 tries, he's very quick in the field but is starting to throw sidearm which irritates me, but on the whole is an improvement over Cristian Guzman. So if I happen to admire his lanky frame while he's airborne and turning a double play, I think I am allowed. But if I want to do nothing but stare at men, there are plenty of other places where the men are less than half a mile away and may potentially come talk to you.

And that's my suggestion to the women at baseball games who don't really care about what's happening on the field: go to the bar, or at least just be quiet and don't embarrass the rest of us. I go to baseball games because I love watching the game live, played by professionals (I can say that now that we’ve gotten rid of Sidney Ponson.) And holding your own as a legit, knowledgeable FEMALE fan is hard enough without the Pink Hats sitting three rows up, gushing about the possibility of Joe Mauer siring their children while simultaneously asking how the other guys got on base.

So please, my fellow women, let us leave the pink and all its stigma behind us. Nothing says class like the navy wool cap (or whatever other colors your team dons when they take the field.) Also classy: learning your team. If there's something more fun than knowing what you're talking about and being able to discuss the finer points of your team with anyone, I don't know what it is.

If I may invoke the words of Benny 'The Jet' Rodriguez, from the immortal film The Sandlot...

"You got a fireplace?"
"Yeah, why?"
"Throw that hat in there."

Couldn't have said it better.

His Agony Is Ours

2007-07-16T23:15:00.000-07:00

That's the picture that adorns this MLB.com article about the trials and tribulations of our old pal, Nick Punto. I'm not going to say that it's the most fitting snapshot I've ever seen, but it's probably close. That grimace sums up his season in a way that no word count can.

Trashing Punto at this point is probably unnecessary and overkill, but I remain continually frustrated by the way he has been used this season. There are a few quotes in that MLB.com article that really show what I'm talking about. Torii Hunter selects Punto as his "pick to click," citing some kind of adjustment that Punto is sure to make, for example. But there are two things that jump out from that article that really get to the heart of the Punto Problem; one comes from the writer of the article (Leslie Parker), and the other comes straight from Ron Gardenhire.

In the middle of that article, Parker writes that Justin Morneau "knows Punto will eventually turn it on." That's all well and good, but take a gander at the quote from Morneau to back up that assertion:

"Everyone's pulling for Punto in this clubhouse. He plays hard every day. He wants to win as hard as anybody, and to see him get a big hit like that [triple on Sunday], it's huge and hopefully it'll get him going. We need him to get those big hits."

Yessir, it sure sounds like Morneau "knows" Punto is going to have a monster second half. Yeesh. The whole story carries that same air, really; speaking of Punto in reverential tones and acting like his .220 batting average is the great mystery of our age. Why do people fall for Punto? For the same reason that David Eckstein is a World Series MVP, I suppose; he's "scrappy," he "plays hard," and so on. I guess the only thing he doesn't do is "play well."

None of this Punto infatuation would be much of an issue if it was contained to the media, but that clearly is not the case. A bit farther down the article, Ron Gardenhire is quoted as saying that "our team gets pretty fired up with Nicky. We all cheer for him pretty hard. We all understand what he's going through. Some of us have been through those things more than others, and we understand those things." The emphasis is mine, of course. Simply put, Gardy relates to Punto and doesn't have the heart to bury him on the bench. Gardenhire knows how it feels to be a .232 career hitter that bounces around the infield spots. That infatuation with Punto that is merely a nuisance in the press becomes an albatross in the dugout.

The tragedy here is, of course, that Punto can actually be a useful player. That mid-dive grimace shows why; he does play hard, he's a useful defensive player, and he can run a bit. You could do much worse on a major league bench than Nick Punto. But there isn't really anyone else to put there at this point. Gardy might be inclined towards Punto, but he doesn't even have a real alternative. I think we all knew coming into this season that expecting Nick Punto to be a competent every day third baseman was crazy; halfway through, it's looking like negligence.

The Twins are currently 6 games behind the division-leading Tigers. To see just how much Punto has contributed to that deficit, the stat "Wins Above Replacement Player" is useful. Punto's WARP1 (roughly, the number of wins he has contributed above what a bargain-bin, major-league-minimum player could provide) is currently .2. Basically replacement level. To put that in context: Baseball Prospectus' glossary states that "a team which is at replacement level in all three of batting, pitching, and fielding will be an extraordinarily bad team, on the order of 20-25 wins in a 162-game season." To be taking such an extreme hit at third base has been crippling.

Punto hasn't been the only player dragging the Twins down, of course. But he remains unique in the way he seems to receive such a free pass for such extraordinary suckitude. He can throw himself around the field, slide into first base, and grimace all he wants, but unless the Twins begin to take third base seriously we can all start dreaming of Liriano and the 2008 season.

Northwoods League Beat: The Second Half Begins

2007-07-16T06:32:00.000-07:00

The first half titles are safely in the pockets of the St. Cloud River Bats and the Green Bay Bullfrogs. The All-Star Game (and most of those scouts) is a thing of the past. Now, it's time for teams in the Northwood's League to get back to business and try to capture a second half title.

With about 7 games already completed for most teams, the two divisions seem to be running true to form. The North, led by the Duluth Huskies (4-2), Rochester Honkers (4-3), and Thunder Bay Border Cats (4-3) is once again a tight race. On the flip side, the South Division is a division of have's and have-nots. The Wisconsin Woodchucks, Eau Claire Express, and Green Bay Bullfrogs lead the charge with a 6-1 record each.

Over the weekend Eau Claire's Cole Calhoun and Wisconsin Woodchuck, Vicente Cafaro, had exceptional days at the plate while Thunder Bay's Matt Fields threw a complete game shutout with 10 strikeouts.

Look Who's Talking

2007-07-15T22:46:00.000-07:00

"Hi. I'm Justin. I'm kind of a big deal. I like to hit home runs, sometimes quite far. Like upper deck far. I hit one yesterday against some cat named Casilla. I feel a little bad because he hadn't given up a long ball in aboot 3 years and I nearly doubled his ERA with the swing. But I can't help it if the team needed a run. Any other circumstance and I'm content with simply ground rule doubling and leaving him with some semblance of self-confidence. But that's neither here nor there now. My ex- roommate Joe won the game for us in the bottom of the 9th, but he didn't hit a long homer. He hit a chopper over 2nd base. Not my cup of tea, but to each his own. If I had come up again in the 9th, I would've ended things a bit more emphatically. That's what reigning MVPs do. But Joe's the reigning batting titleist (Is that a word? I know they're golf clubs. That's another ball I like to hit quite far, but I'm digressing, eh?) and he has less flair for these things. He kinda has less flair in general, except for that cool fashion spread he had a few years back. Man, he's gonna hate me for bringing that up. I better shut up now. Uh, we cool Joe?"

"Yeah, we're cool Justin, but don't be hatin' on my hitting method. It's called lumber on the ball, and as long as I get to celebrate like paid entertainment at a Greek wedding (O-pah!), I'll chop balls wherever and whenever I see fit. While you're listening, congrats on your first round exit in the Derby. I'm not lettin you live that down anytime soon. Oh, and you're on trash duty next time you're over for digging up those pictures."

"Alright, that's enough outta both a yous. Quit yer yappin and keep winnin ballgames. Don't make me snarl in your general direction. (beep beep) Uh, hold on, I've got someone on the other line. I didn't even know this phone had call waiting."

"Coach - it's A.J. Wazzzzupp?! We won tonight! Wait...no we didn't. Man, I'm sick of all this losing. I miss you. At least I understood you when you yelled at us. Oops, I forgot I was holding this shot. I can't remember this girl's name, but I'm gonna try and long-distance kiss her."

"A.J., wait. Don't try the long distance kiss. A tough lesson learned from my playing days if you know what I mean, heh heh. 'Cept we didn't have all these fruity concoctions you kids drink. A drink was meant to put hair on your chest. And girls liked hairy chests then. None of this shaved chest and fake tan stuff you see everywhere. I remember Wally Backman and Keith Hernandez used to have chest hair contests in the clubhouse. Ha! And a man was measured by his mustache. Golly, those were the days. You still there A.J.? Aw nuts."

THE NORTHWOODS LEAGUE ALL-STAR GAME: NEW BEGINNINGS

2007-07-13T08:43:00.000-07:00

For players in the Northwoods League, it's all about new beginnings. As they're trying to establish a career between the chalk lines, an invitation to the Northwoods All-Star Game is a great opportunity. This year's event, held last Wednesday in Mankato, MN, played host to over thirty pro baseball scouts. I had a chance to talk briefly with Twins scout, Mike Ruth about the event.

"I think the Northwoods League has really separated itself." he said, "There are a lot of scouts here because it's more of a pro setting than you'll find in a lot of summer leagues. The players have more travel and the fields are more like the pros. This game is a fine example. The way they run the whole day. They had a scouts workout where the kids hit and field for us. You couldn't do it better."

So, while the scouts were getting their fill, what did the fans see? Wally the Beerman, for one! Yep, our favorite beer peddler from the Metrodome was on-hand to do what he does best, sell beer. I even saw La Crosse Logger Jimmy Viscomi's dad hustling past a group of kids to come up with a foul ball, looking for all the world like he was ten years old again.

The evening's events began with a home run derby featuring one representative from each team. With the wind carrying balls out to left field at Franklin Rogers Stadium, it was Xavier Scruggs, a third baseman with the Brainard Blue Thunder that won the day with a total of 11 jacks in two rounds.

The game itself was mostly dominated by pitchers as the two teams tallied 27 strikeouts. The North Division eventually came out on top by a score of 3-2. Hometown Mankato Moondog, Nate Hanson walked away with MVP honors.

Oh, and did I forget to mention that as all of these players were staring at their futures in the form of big league scouts, one player, Moondog catcher Ben Geelan, grabbed his future by the horns...proposing to his would-be bride on the pitchers mound before the games first pitch. Let's just say, if she had been a scout...it appears he got the contract.

Keep your eyes open for weekly updates and my continuous snippets from second half games!

The Triple: Baseball's Endangered Species

2007-07-11T19:23:00.000-07:00

“I don't know why people like the home run so much. A home run is over as soon as it starts. The triple is the most exciting play of the game. A triple is like meeting a woman who excites you, spending the evening talking and getting more excited, then taking her home. It drags on and on. You're never sure how it's going to turn out.”

~George Foster

And this from a left-fielding National League leader of homeruns in 1977 and 1978. This from a player whose nickname was “the Destroyer” when he played for the Cincinnati Reds during the Big Red Machine era. But I agree. The homerun is as overrated as Spiderman 3, especially since it has developed into a showcase for corporate sponsors at the Homerun Derby.

The best part about a homerun is scoring a run, or four. That’s a gimme. However, the worst part about a homerun is sitting through the next at-bat. After the hitter scores and plenty of knucks and manly pats on the caboose are passed around, and the fans take their seats, the next batter is practically forgotten. We already stood up and cheered our faces off, clapped our hands red, and had our scoring excitement for the inning. No need to pay attention to who’s next because we’re probably still commentating on the last at-bat. Unless the next batter hits a homerun too, I’m back to tidying up my scorecard or working on the Sudoku puzzle at the back of my GameDay.

Homeruns are as common in baseball now as the loon is in Minnesota. For 38 years, Roger Maris sat atop the single season homerun list, and suddenly, in the span of only four years (1998-2001) he was knocked down the list to number 7. Sosa passed 61 homers in a season three times, McGwire two times and Bonds once. Is it ironic to note that all three have been heavily accused of being infected with the steroid bug? And is it also interesting that they are all from the NL, when the AL is most often considered the more power-hitting league?

A number of active players from the last decade pepper the top 100 list of single season homers; there are nearly 20 active players in the top 100 for career homeruns. Names like Griffey, Thomas, Ramirez, Rodriguez, Jones (Chipper and Andruw) sound familiar. How about these names: Maranville, Magee, Brouthers, Konetchy, and Bottomly. Anyone? They are all members of the top 100 career triples list. Guess how many active players make that list…one—a lone player by the name of Steve Finley, and he’s number 92 on the list. Kenny Lofton and Johnny Damon are the next closest active players to have a snowman’s shot in hell of adding their names to the list.

“It drags on and on. You never know how it’s going to turn out.”

A triple gets the most excitement out of a crowd because it magnifies the emotions one feels towards the middle yellow glare of a stoplight—do you risk it and go, do you play it safe and hold up; how long will it last? Fans get to scream, pray, cheer, and clutch their bladders while the ball is in the air or bounding down the line, kicking off the baggie or bouncing off the fence, dancing around in a corner while the runner, well, runs; the third base coach waves him around second; the fielder picks the ball up and his morale is immediately shattered to see how far the runner has gone; he hurls the ball off target; the base coach throws his arms down, signaling a slide; befuddled and hurried, the third baseman straddles the bag, hoping not to get spiked; and the runner slides in safe amid a dramatic cloud of dust only 90 crucial feet from heaven while the third baseman cries the gravel out of his eyes and the pitcher mutters “Luck S.O.B.” into his glove. The crowd doesn’t completely settle down after that; fans cheer in appreciation for the successful venture and effort and because the next batter is just as important with a chance to knock in an RBI.

Isn’t that much more exciting than when the ball is hit high, higher; you watch it, watch it, wait for it, wait for it, keep following it if you haven’t already lost it against the dome, and it’s gone! Cheering erupts and the score immediately increases without any assistance from the fielders or other batters. In many cases a homerun is effortless and yet the fireworks go off, the milk jug lights up, and sirens blare; confetti bombs explode, planes fly overhead, rainbows arch over the field, children weep, and somewhere an angel gets its wings. All the while the batter doesn’t even break a sweat. He circles the bags pondering what toppings will grace his sub sandwich after the game. Or, if he's the DH, he ponders what shade of pink, red, or frosted sunset berry to paint his nails during the next inning.

The enormous, loud, abrasive finality of a homerun is incomparable to the teasing, risky, prolonged anticipation of a triple. It drives a pitcher batty wondering how it happened. Homeruns are easy—one bad pitch and the player jacks it, and pitching to the next batter feels like a fresh start, a second chance.

If homeruns are over once they start, then triples are just getting started once they start. Embrace the triple. With the way the game is progressing, who knows when you’ll ever see one again.

Food for thought: In all seriousness, why the lack of triples?
Game dominated by power-hitters?
Game dominated by players with lung capacity of a two-year-old?
Game dominated by players with the physical makeup of Ortiz and Fielder?
Better throws from right fielders? (Knucks for Cuddyer)
No-talent baserunning?
Not enough weird outfield apparatuses for balls to take weird bounces off? (No, there’s still the baggie, the Monster, that really pesky brick wall at AT&T Park, the uneven ivy leaves at Wrigley.)

Career triples leaders:
Sam Crawford – 309 (The only player in history with 300+ triples)
Ty Cobb – 295
Honus Wagner – 252

Making Sense from No Comment

2007-07-10T17:05:00.001-07:00

"It's not that I don't want to talk about. It's just something that, publicly, I haven't talked about. It's insensitive. So instead of mapping it out in the media, I think I'm always better off [keeping quiet] ... and I know it's not what people want to read or hear, but sometimes I just have to say it's not something I discuss in the media ... These things usually have a way of working themselves out."

-Twins GM Terry Ryan, in reference to Torii Hunter's future

Quite the well-rehearsed company line, eh? Sounds to me like he said a whole lot without officially saying anything. I completely respect that Ryan and the club don't allow a mid-season circus surround the volatile issue of re-signing free agents. He simply does not cater to the media feeding frenzy. This tight-lipped, no-nonsense conviction has been the modus operandi of the Twins and it has suited them just fine in the last handful of years.

As a counter-point, the White Sox were a bit looser with their Mark Buehrle talks and, subsequently, the team backed itself into a corner. At the risk of pissing off their fan base, they saved face by upping the ante to keep Buehrle, a great clubhouse guy who has many solid but not great years left in him. Sound familiar?

I get the vibe that Torii will be apartment hunting some time this year (sooner if the team doesn't show immediate signs of life out of the gate). I understand Ryan isn't going to hint one way or the other, but it's easier to interpret his words with a negative spin. The crux of the matter is Torii played himself out of the team's budget. He picked the absolute best time to have a career year, unlike his counterpart in Atlanta.

Minnesota fans should feel like proud parents sending Torii into the real world, proverbially graduating from his schooling and apprenticeship summa cum laude and ready to rake in big corporate bucks. If you gave fans the choice of keeping one player among Hunter, Santana, Mauer, and Morneau, my hunch is Hunter garners the least votes, not to mention Cuddyer is as integral to the team's successes at less than half Hunter's price.

If it plays out that way, there should be no hard feelings between either side. Fans are bludgeoned to death with the pat phrase "That's the business of the game," but that's the simple truth in this case. Torii deserves to be paid in the upper echelon of players and the Twins can't afford to saddle the team with the kind of contract he will command. The Hunter saga will weigh on fans' minds the rest of the season, even if mum's the word from management's mouth.

Significant Digits

2007-07-09T22:24:00.000-07:00

“…baseball statistics, unlike the statistics in any other area, have acquired the powers of language.”
--Bill James

It’s been a pretty good year when it comes to numbers. We just had 7/7/07, after all, so maybe it’s destiny. But in any case, watching 500, 600, 350, and 3000, we’ve had our fair share of significant digits. So if those numbers can speak to us as James posits, each of them should have a story to tell. I’m not ready to go quite as far as James and say that baseball statistics are the only numbers that have the power of language, but there is something unique about hardball’s tally marks.

The very nature of the sport lends to its statistics a unique status. So much effort in basketball and (especially) football goes into trying to disentangle individual contributions from those of teammates. Aside from the pesky pitching/defense quandary, baseball is largely free from that issue. I know I’m not breaking new ground here, but it’s worth remembering what exactly makes us love baseball numbers so much. They can instantly call to mind visions of mano-a-mano pitcher/batter duels in the way that rushing yards and rebounds do not. That’s the language James was talking about: we can look at them and instantly translate them from sums to stories.

350 is kind of unique among this year’s notable numbers in the way we make that translation. Roger Clemens’ 350^thwin is quite distinct narratively from the home run and hit totals. While the offensive stats call to mind brief, violent flashes of accomplishment at the plate, pitcher wins make us think of hours of sustained dominance at a time. A win requires stamina, endurance, and consistency. (At least, the way we imagine them does. I don’t think anyone thinks of a LOOGY grabbing an 8^th inning vulture win.) The win gets (rightfully) bashed as a performance-evaluating statistic, but it still has its own tale to tell; one does not pick up 350 wins by accident.

350 sums up tidily the career of possibly the greatest pitcher of all time. Clemens’ continued dominance over two decades of an offensive era matches up with the resume of anyone to ever climb a major league mound. He won those games for four different organizations, winning Cy Youngs and World Series. Other numbers are a better argument in an objective sense for his all-time ranking (a career ERA+ of 144!), but saying “he won 350 major league games” sums up his career in a way that anyone can grasp.

Comparing this year’s 350 to its 600 is an interesting exercise. 600 home runs is kind of a big deal, as you might have heard. But I didn’t hear much celebration for Sammy Sosa’s feat. His 600 tells the story of epic home run chases, corked bats, and congressional testimony; his ascendance to the title of pre-eminent slugger of the late ‘90s has all the makings of a great movie. And last I checked, we have just as much hard evidence linking Sosa to steroids as we do for Clemens (about whom some have whispered rumors as well). Funny how that works out. Until the real evidence rolls in (and I doubt it ever will), Sosa’s 600 should be a happy one. Unfortunately, not every story has a storybook ending.

Frank Thomas’ 500 reeks of domination, pure and simple. His nickname is no accident; he put the Hurt on AL pitching throughout the 1990s, throwing up some of the most dominating seasons of the modern era. (Look at his 1997, for example. .347/.456/.611! Yikes. Also, notice how all I needed to do was give you a few decimals, and you got the point.) When people say “fear” in relation to a hitter, they mean Frank Thomas. Of course, his 500 also holds the frustration of his ugly White Sox divorce, which remains one of the sadder player exits I can remember. (Although, throwing up a 141 OPS+ wasn’t a bad way to cope with the grief in Oakland.)

Speaking of sad ends, we have Craig Biggio’s 3000^th hit. In a lot of ways, he and Thomas are polar opposites, even though the traits they share (like, first-ballot Hall-of-Famer) are significant. Biggio’s number is all about the little man’s game; Thomas launched the ball like a catapult. Biggio remained with his original team to the end; Thomas was run out of town. And, of course: Thomas remained productive as he pursued his milestone, while Biggio has gritted his way through substandard seasons and pulled his team’s offense down. I find 3000 to be the saddest of this bunch, for this reason. The aforementioned Bill James once made a pretty decent argument that Biggio was the best player of the ‘90s; he has been either right around average or well below it in each of the last six seasons (measured by OPS+). While the twilight of his career should not obscure the great player that he was, Biggio’s 3000 instead tells the tale of a player seemingly hanging on too long, and an organization unwilling to come to grips with reality.

We haven’t finished our numerology this year—not by a long shot. We still have Tom Glavine (300), Alex Rodriguez (500), and, of course, Barry Bonds. 2007 will certainly be a year for the storybooks—or the stat books. Same difference.

2007-07-08T20:40:00.000-07:00

Stops and Starts

A long, bad [day]. It was hard to watch, but you have to get up and keep fighting. I have a new name for those guys. They were piranha, but now they’re sharks. They’re bigger fish now.

- White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen

Well, one of them is getting bigger it seems. Of course, Jason Kubel was never supposed to be a piranha. Let’s call him a baby shark that is starting to relearn exactly what those rows of razors in his mouth can do.

There were nights of anger. And screaming. And then depression that went beyond both of those, when hope seemed to be gone. And I’m not talking about Kubel. I’m talking about Twins fans, who have watched Kubel’s little drama unfold in extreme slow motion, waiting for the third jewel of the hitting prospects to take his place in the Twins championship crown.

As we look longingly at a minor league system that is bereft of any offensive help, it’s worth noting that Kubel was THE top hitting prospect in the entire minor leagues for a time. Kubel had every bit the promise of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, with more power than Mauer and more consistency than Morneau. Need a refresher?

In 2004, he started the season at AA-New Britain, his first exposure to that level. It wasn’t an especially hard adjustment. In his first couple of months, Kubel hit .377, with a .667(!) slugging percentage and an 1120 OPS. He continued his tear at AAA-Rochester, hitting .343, slugging .560, and sporting a 958 OPS. That earned him another promotion to the majors, where he again hit .300 and was included on the postseason roster.

All that and he was just 22 years old.

Two-and-a-half years later, he still isn’t back to that level, but he’s slowly – very slowly - showing growth. If you look at Kubel’s monthly splits so far, it looks so clean and promising:

Just about every number climbs, peaking in a roadtrip that smells a little like a breakout week. But the day-to-day reality has been infinitely more frustrating for Twins fans. And I’m guessing for Kubel and the Twins as well.

And it's easy to see in this graph, which is Kubel’s OPS charted daily. You still see the gradual upward trend, but here you also see all the peaks and valleys that make up the daily grind. You don’t see a long road well-traveled. You see the Crosstown at rush hour – all starts and stops, starts and stops. Only it’s worse, because with every stop you don’t know if maybe “it” is gone for good.

You can expect more in the future as the line undulates its way towards the end of the season. It might as well be a measure of Twins fans frustration. Or of an organization’s hope. Or of a promising player’s level of confidence.

But I hope that Ozzie is right, and it’s really a growth chart for a shark.

Gamelog II: The Sequel

2007-07-08T16:55:00.001-07:00

PREGAME

John: Huzzah!
Kyle: You're going all renfest on me now?
John: Renfest?
Kyle: Renaissance Festival?
John: Ah. Verily, it beith a fine day for some bat and ball.
Kyle: So do I dare watch the WGN broadcast? Bert and Dick wear on me, but they're nowhere near as much as Hawk and Jackson.
John: I don't have the guts for Hawk. He gone!
Kyle: He's wearing some pineapple themed Hawaiian shirt during the pregame.
John: Aloha?
Kyle: Would that be the hello, or goodbye version? I'm treating it as the latter.
John: I'm hoping the latter as well.
Kyle: If the Twins don't score at least ten today, I'm calling the afternoon a waste.
John: Who's pitching for the Sox?
Kyle: Vazquez, so not quite in the Gavin Floyd fifth-circle-of-hell for Sox fans.
John: Haha. Ten sound about right; that would restore a decent per-game average for this series.
Kyle: Silva's on the mound for the hometown nine, so depending on which version of Carlos shows up, we might need 'em.
John: We'll see how he deals with the heat--if he gets sleepy and decides to take an afternoon nap, we might have some trouble.
Kyle: Mackowiak, Owens and Terrero in the outfield for the Sox... we'd better win.

TOP OF THE FIRST
Twins 0, White Sox 0

John: The outfield from hell.
[Luis Castillo grounds out to the pitcher.]
Kyle: Castillo runs very fast for a guy that simulates the arthritic gate of an AARP member.
John: Castillo's quest for a higher OBP than SLG continues. We might need to get him a Rascal scooter or something soon.
[Jason Bartlett comes to the plate.]
Kyle: So what's the over-under on the number of times AJ mentions Bartlett's mother during this at-bat?
John: Now that Bartlett's taking a few pitches, I'd say 86. Gotta give AJ time to work.
[Bartlett strikes out.]
John: Ooof, not a pretty swing. I had visions of Punto there.
Kyle: You can take pills for that.
John: Those would have to be pretty potent.
[Vazquez gets Mauer to ground out to third.]
Kyle: A scoreless top half... The Twins are way off their pace for the series.
John: The quest for ten runs off to an inauspicious start... At least we're free of Buehrle. If the Sox wanted to deal him to the NL, I would be totally okay with that.
Kyle: You don't want the Sox to tie up a bunch of funds on an aging control artist?
John: Hmmm, good point.
Kyle: The Twins should place a call or two, convince Buehrle he deserves Zito money.
John: He still drives me nuts when he shuts down the Twins.
Kyle: Well, Jorge de la Rosa can do that as well, so...

BOTTOM OF FIRST
Twins 0, White Sox 0

John: I imagine Silva coming out of the dugout wet, George Foreman-style.
[Jerry Owens leads off for Chicago.]
John: Dick says that both pitchers are throwing a high percentage of strikes so far. Silva sure has been pounding the zone... two times out of four.
Kyle: Silva's stash seems thicker today, almost in the realm of evil doppelganger, only identifiable by the sinister mustache. I bet he gives up a ton of fly balls, if that's the case.
John: He needs a black bowler hat. And a cape.
Kyle: The cape might work. He could really hide the ball during his delivery.
John: In fact, he should probably just dress up like the Count from Sesame Street.
[Owens grounds out to short.]
Kyle: Dick again with the "Twins' defense second in the majors, statistically." Which statistics?
John: Of course, statistically. As in, the number of little stars that Dick drew in his scorebook to mark good plays. The Twins lead the league in Dick's stars.
[Iguchi grounds out to second.]
Kyle: I heard he's upgraded to smiley-face stickers.
John: FSN must be throwing cash at him, then.
[Thome fouls out to catcher.]
Kyle: Bizarro-Silva answers back with a one-two-three inning of his own.
John: He wanted to get back in the shade. Both teams with the dark unis today: equal-opportunity heat stroke.
Kyle: Do baseball players resort to the pickle juice?
John: Good question.
Kyle: I'll go do a shot in the Twins honor.
John: I figure Mauer and Morneau just drink plenty of Land-O-Lakes.

TOP OF SECOND
Twins 0, White Sox 0

John: "It's so hot out... milk was a bad choice."
Kyle: I heard Joe is up for an Oscar. "Pour it on, Twins fans."
John: Some of the finest work I've ever seen, really.
Kyle: I rank things...
-Skinny Brando
-Skinny Wells
-Mauer
-Olivier
John: I can't quibble with that.
[Cuddyer grounds out to third.]
Kyle: Man, that pickle juice shot... rough. I think I needed to add more bourbon.
John: A common rookie mistake. Has Morneau picked a Derby pitcher yet?
Kyle: He's in negotiations with Gavin Floyd right now.
[Morneau grounds out to first.]
Kyle: Why don't the Twins order their line-up: Castillo-Mauer- Cuddyer-Morneau-Hunter?
John: That's a mystery to me. Mauer seems like an ideal two-hole guy.
Kyle: As great a season as Hunter is having, does he really need to bat sixth so Punto/Bartlett can hit second?
John: Urgh. Castillo and Mauer getting on base like crazy, then get to the power guys--works for me.
[Hunter grounds out to the pitcher.]
Kyle: And the Twins go down one-two-three in the second. I don't want to jinx it, but I think we're looking at dueling perfect games here.
John: We could be making history. Especially if the Twins don't start hitting a few balls in the air.

BOTTOM OF SECOND
Twins 0, White Sox 0

Kyle: Is Cuddyer sporting some Wayfarers in right?
John: Something for the ladies, I'm sure.
Kyle: I think the all-star break has started early. I bet he dons some deck shoes and pleated kaki shorts by the fifth.
John: If he brings a fishing rod to the plate, we'll know what's up.
[Konerko strikes out looking.]
Kyle: Silva with a strikeout. Shame on you, Paul Konerko.
John: Silva=Nolan Ryan.
[Pierzynski grounds out to second.]
Kyle: Sox fans have to be mildly excited about getting a long look at Fields now that Creede is done for the year.
John: It's probably a relief to have a 3B who can actually tie his own shoes.
Kyle: Silva's high change-up lands for a strike, much to the ire of the Southside faithful. It's not Silva's fault though, a team of bartenders cut all of Section 109 off last night.
John: I'm hoping the fine family that beat the crap out of the Royals' base coach came out this afternoon.
Kyle: As long as they go after Ulger and not White.
John: Morneau might jump in to help.
[Fields grounds out to second.]

TOP OF THE THIRD
Twins 0, White Sox 0

[Kubel grounds out to second.]
Kyle: Gardenhire to pitch for Morneau in the derby?
John: Ah, so Gardy gets the Derby nod. Pressure!
Kyle: Can we please change the managers wearing uniforms rule. The last thing a national television audience needs to see is Ron Gardenhire in tight pants.
John: I'm with you there. At least Don Zimmer stays out of sight now.
[Cirillo flies out to right.]
Kyle: : Cirillo becomes the first Twin to put a ball in the air.
[Punto doubles to deep right center.]
John: Punto breaks the ice? He might have been my 9th guess.
Kyle: Punto doubles, breaking up the perfect game and collecting his fourth hit of the season!
John: If he's not careful, he might stay above .200.
Kyle: Enter RBI-machine, Luis Castillo.
John: I can feel the power from here.
Kyle: 2-1, Vazquez is pitching around him.
John: Is it too late to slide Mauer up to the two-spot?
Kyle: 3-1, Vazquez doesn't want to get burned deep by feeding any strikes to Luis.
[Castillo flies out to left center.]
Kyle: And the threat is over... for now.
John: Luis is the one guy I don't want to hit the ball in the air, so of course he does.

BOTTOM OF THE THIRD
Twins 0, White Sox 0

John: Why is it called the "game reset"?
Kyle: No idea.
[Mackowiak homers to deep right.]
Kyle: Ouch.
John: Well, both perfect games are toast.
Kyle: Double ouch, because that's Rob Mackowiak.
John: Enter Evil Silva?
Kyle: I don't understand it, Silva fed him a change-up belt high over the middle of the plate, the Twins just can't catch a break.
John: Yeah, total fluke that a major-leaguer would hit that.
[Terrero doubles to deep right.]
Kyle: Terrero doubles.
John: I'm collecting canned food and preparing my bomb shelter.
[Uribe pops out to short.]
Kyle: Don't we look like clowns for daring to question the Mackowiak-Owens-Terrero outfield.
John: We tempted the fates.
Kyle: They're slugging 2.000 so far this game, entering Owens' second at-bat.
[Owens grounds out to short, Terrero to third.]
John: According to Dick, Owens is not yet at the level of Kenny Lofton. I'm glad he pointed that out.
Kyle: I think he's gunning for Larry King's job.
John: I'm not convinced that King is still alive; he might be a robot at this point and no one would notice.
Kyle: "Johan Santana is a good pitcher. You heard it here first."
John: "I know some people might disagree with me, but that Henry Aaron was one fine ballplayer."
[Iguchi signles to center, Terrero scores.]
Kyle: Nuts. Silva misses his spot and Iguchi singles in a run.
[Thome homers to deep right, Iguchi scores.]
John: Oh boy. Thome smash.
Kyle: Nuts. Silva misses his spot and Thome achieves escape velocity.
John: That is Thome's 438th career home run against the Twins.
Kyle: Damn it, Bert, not every single homerun is hit with the "uppercut swing".
John: It's either an uppercut swing, or he drops the head of the bat. And every out is hit off the end of the bat. You should know these things by now.
Kyle: Two-outs, no one on, does Silva thump Konerko out of spite? We could use a brawl heading into the break. Most players would have three days to heal.
John: As long as we hold Johan down. Morneau could deal some serious damage, I would think. He'd spend the whole time trying to pull guys' jerseys over their heads.
Kyle: So could Ulger. Reyes could sit on someone while Ulger gave them batting tips.
[Konerko homers to deep left.]
John: Ulger should give Konerko batting tips. Solo shot, 5-0 Sox.
Kyle: I don't think this is Bizarro-Silva, because Bizarro-Silva has success with fly balls. This is just regular Silva, doing what hurts him the most.
John: Going to need every one of those ten runs.
Kyle: Four two-out RBIs. Yuck. At least hit AJ now. It's not like anyone's going to back him in a brawl. Maybe Ozzie.
John: Ozzie could be dangerous in a fight. The crazy ones are always trouble.
Kyle: And if you speak Spanish, it'd be hard not to laugh at the stream of profanity that would make a sailor blush with shame.
[Pierzynski singles to right.]
John: Ramon Ortiz, AKA "The White Flag", warming up.
Kyle: Four two-out hits now, someone needs to put out the fire, even if it takes the form of a controlled burn like Ortiz.
John: Silva's sweating enough to put out even the mightiest of flames.
Kyle: He doesn't even need Moises Alou's mighty stream-of-justice.
John: Hopefully no one ever does. We should introduce Moises to the pickle juice.
[Fields singles up the middle, Pierzynski to second.]
Kyle: Fifth straight two-out hit. Kind of wish that would have hit Silva.
[Mackowiak grounds out to second.]
John: Mercifully, the inning ends.
Kyle: I'm inventing a new drink right here and now. The Alou is a shot that's two parts pickle juice, one part bourbon.
John: And it hates Steve Bartman.
Kyle: The Bartman leaves you with a hangover that lasts another 80 years...

TOP OF FOURTH
Twins 0, White Sox 5

Kyle: Where's Jon Garland when we need him?
John: The Twins think they scored their July supply of runs on Friday, apparently.
Kyle: 2-1 to ace number-two hitter... Jason Bartlett.
John: Super stud.
Kyle: The over-under on JB's impending dinger: 480 feet. What's your bet?
John: Oh, 500 easy. Or, zero.
[Bartlett strikes out swinging.]
Kyle: Or he could climb the ladder and miss the same pitch he did in his first strike-out of the game.
John: At least he's consistent.
Kyle: That was option 1A, I swear.
[Mauer singles to short.]
Kyle: "Pour it on, Mauer."
Kyle: Uribe throws a tantrum at short after botching the transfer from glove to throwing hand.
John: Stupid ball!
Kyle: His mom just gave him a time-out for saying crap. "That's not how we talk in this infield."
[Cuddyer singles to left, Mauer to second.]
John: Two singles, and I feel a rally coming on.
John: Well, hopefully Torii doesn't have another meltdown then.
Kyle: Two on for Morneau...
[Morneau singles to right, Mauer scores, Cuddyer to third.]
Kyle: Get through... yes!
John: We comin', we comin'!
Kyle: The most likely method of scoring runs, and the Twins entire offensive philosophy for most the season... three singles in the same inning.
John: Also very easy to put together at any given moment.
Kyle: Hunter up... ooh, did that two-seam really catch the corner?
John: The zone isn't quite as big as yesterday's.
[Hunter grounds to short, Morneau out at second, Cuddyer scores.]
Kyle: Fielder's choice with the runner from third scoring. Only three runs back now. Kubel ties it with one swing, I'm making the call.
John: That would be a mighty hack.
Kyle: .263 with seven dingers on the year, it's pretty much a lock, right?
John: The third run is a reward for hitting it 700 feet.
Kyle: Right. Don't trouble me with mundane details like the actual number of runners on base.
John: There is no spoon.
[Kubel strikes out swinging.]
John: ...and no homer.
Kyle: Yuck. Don't chase the splitter in the dirt...
John: Still, the comeback begins.
Kyle: Now the Twins just need Silva or Ortiz to shut down the likes of Mackowiak-Owens-Terrero.
John: No easy task. The resistible force versus the movable object.
Kyle: Jorge de la Rosa could do it.
John: Jorge can do anything.
Kyle: He's like zombo.com.
John: The impossible is possible.
Kyle: The only limit is yourself.

BOTTOM OF FOURTH
Twins 2, White Sox 5

[Terrero grounds out to short.]
Kyle: Finally, a groundball out from Silva. Man, you know it's a rough day if we're saying stuff like that...
John: No kidding. An out! Thank the gods!
[Uribe singles to center.]
Kyle: I thought Torii was going to go for that. Being able to decide between a single, and a single and a two base error, along with the insurmountable gap in talent and skill, is what separates me from Torii Hunter.
[Uribe gets caught trying to steal second.]
John: And Mauer guns him down anyway, so it's all for the best.
Kyle: Torii knew that was going to happen.
John: He has the power of foresight.
Kyle: He doesn't believe in premonition, but has a feeling he will someday.
[Owens singles through Punto into left.]
John: ...Punto "lost the ball in the shirts"? What does that mean?
Kyle: I'm going to knock back another Alou, as opposed to wrestling with that thought.
John: A fair choice. Makes Silva 14% easier to take.
Kyle: Bookers and Gedney were truly made for each other.
[Iguchi grounds out to short.]
John: Scoreless inning!
Kyle: Nice throw by Bartlett and the Twins escape the inning unharmed.
John: It should always be so easy.

TOP OF FIFTH
Twins 2, White Sox 5

[Cirillo singles to center.]
Kyle: Cirillo with another seeing eye single for the Twins.
John: The offense is a machine.
Kyle: A very small one, yes.
John: I'm not sure what kind; maybe a cotton gin or something.
Kyle: And simple. More like an inclined plane, or the wheel.
John: That would imply the possibility of momentum, though.
Kyle: Zing! Remember folks, John is here all week and the 7:30 show is completely different from the 9:00 show.
John: Tip your waitresses, and enjoy the veal.
Kyle: You know Reyes does.
John: [Rimshot.]
[Punto singles to right, Cirillo to second.]
Kyle: Two singles. Slap-hitter rally!
John: Punto=Pete Rose.
[Castill sacrifices to catcher, Cirillo to third, Punto to second.]
Kyle: Castillo with a sac bunt. He's quick enough to leg that out if it's a better bunt, but I don't know how I feel playing for one or two runs with Silva struggling on the mound in the fifth.
John: I suppose we should take what we can get.
[Bert takes a break from the game to observe a jet overhead.]
John: I'm surprised that Bert knows what a jet stream is. I figured he would think it's the exhaust that a 474 leaves across the sky.
Kyle: 2-2. Big at-bat for Bartlett.
[Vazquez misses for a ball.]
Kyle: 3-2, could be a pivotal moment in the game.
John: If he wanted to slap a double down the right field line, I would allow it.
[Bartlett fouls back a close pitch in on his hands.]
Kyle: Good job just fighting off that two-seam.
John: Bert is having trouble stealing AJ's sign.
Kyle: I think he's a Virgo.
[Bartlett strikes out looking.]
Kyle: Ooh... that's the same two-seam called against Hunter.
John: Yeesh.
Kyle: At least I'm noticing some consistency from the umpire.
John: He looked completely frozen.
Kyle: ...even if the ump is giving Vazquez the 1992 Greg Maddux treatment on the outside corners.
John: No kidding.
John: 2-0 to Mauer. Really, really could use a hit here.
Kyle: 3-0, first base open, Cuddyer up next. Though call for Chicago.
Kyle: 3-1, hitter's pitch. "Pour it on, Joe."
John: Full count--pressure's on now.
[Mauer strikes out looking.]
John: That was absurd. Called "third strike."
Kyle: Can't we get some Ted Williamseque, "If that was a strike, Mr. Mauer would have let you know," going on here?
John: Where's QuesTec when you need it?
Kyle: Kidnapped and secretly locked away in ministorage owned by Curt Schilling.
John: Curses.

BOTTOM OF FIFTH
Twins 0, White Sox 5

John: As Dick said a few weeks ago, if any pitcher is used to watching his team squander chances, it's Silva.
Kyle: Thome at the plate. Silva misses low for ball one. Looks like the negative reinforcement he received in their last battle made an impression.
[Thome singles to right.]
John: Oh goody, more base runners.
Kyle: The real problem is, with Thome on the base paths, he's guaranteed to score with just three or four more White Sox hits.
[Thome advances to second on a passed ball.]
John: You're being pretty generous.
[Konerko grounds out to the second after the ball deflects off Silva's glove, Thome to third.]
Kyle: Nice play by Castillo.
John: Very solid throw.
Kyle: He gets rid of the ball so fast.
John: Now even Thome can score on a base hit, though.
[Pierzynski hits a sacrifice fly to deep center field, Thome scores.]
Kyle: Good job fighting the wind by Hunter there. Just like burrito night in the clubhouse.
John: Yeesh. We need to keep Reyes away from the post game spread.
[Fields bunts out to the pitcher.]
Kyle: Silva helps himself with the glove to get out of the inning. Now if he'd only do the same with his pitching...
John: That would probably be more efficient.
Kyle: As bad as things are, at least I'm tuned into Fox 29 and not WGN. We've avoided three "put-it-on-the-board-yeses" and a slew of "he-gones".
John: Always nice, if you want to be driven insane.

TOP OF THE SIXTH
Twins 2, White Sox 6

[Cuddyer flies out to right.]
John: I'm guessing the Twins missed their chance there in the 5th.
[Morneau homers to deep right center.]
Kyle: Get out!
John: ...he showed me.
Kyle: Put that on the board, Hawk.
[Hunter grounds out to short.]
Kyle: Come on, Buckets!
John: The bottom of the order is money in the bank. The Sox might as well just give up now.
Kyle: A pre-Black Tuesday bank, with fractional reserves?
John: Good point. Perhaps giving out a few sub-prime loans.
Kyle: Hat tip to Ludwig von Mises and his Theory of Money and Credit.
[Kubel strikes out looking.]
John: Whee for called third strikes.
Kyle: The ump is very anxious to start his three day vacation as well. (With his strike-zone I can't imagine he'll be officiating the all-star game.)
John: Maybe he has a fishing trip with Cuddyer planed.
Kyle: If that's the case he'd better BYOB, because I don't think Kubel will be sharing after that call. Only nine outs left with which to stage a thrilling come from behind win.
John: The Twins have a flair for the dramatic.

BOTTOM OF SIXTH
Twins 3, White Sox 6

Kyle: Enter the Racoon. He just hasn't been the same since he got off the juice.
John: We should see what we can do to fix that.
[Mackowiak strikes out swinging.]
Kyle: I've got a lot of spam e-mails I think could help him. And how the hell do these people know I need so much help in the bedroom?
[Terrero grounds out to third.]
John: The internets are amazing things.
Kyle: Although, they're not a big truck.
John: Good point. You don't want them to get clogged up.
[Uribe fiels out to right.]
Kyle: Ron Gardenhire just wants to know why it's always a flashing 12:00 in Japan.
John: He's pretty sure it has something to do with time zones and the metric system.
Kyle: Morneau could help explain the latter to him. "Did you see that 150 KM/H heat?!?"
John: "Ooftah, that was a good one."
Kyle: At this point, if my knowledge of kids sports movies serves, the Twins need to bring in a ringer to turn things around. Somehow, I don't think RonDL White will do it, though.
John: I smell Tony Batista.

TOP OF SEVENTH
Twins 3, White Sox 6

[Cirillo grounds out to first.]
John: Literally. I smell Tony Batista.
Kyle: Is his reputation that he's a gamer, or just gamey?
John: "Gamey" sounds like undercooked "gamer."
Kyle: I don't think health conscious cannibals would touch him. Too much gristle.
John: How many times can Dick say "Punto with a pair of hits"?
Kyle: You hear that "Go back to the minors!" from the stands behind the plate?
John: I'm ready to hire that guy. He knows what's up.
Kyle: You think that's a Southsider, or a Twins fan on a weekend getaway?
John: In any case, I'm hoping Ryan can hear him.
[Punto grounds out to first.]
Kyle: Two down. If the Sox get a nutty two-out rally, it's only fair the Twins do.
John: Seems reasonable.
[Castillo grounds out to second.]
Kyle: Not to Javier Vazquez, it doesn't.
John: Vazquez=Cy Young.
Kyle: He's been good of recent, even dodging his reputation for turning into Carlos Silva after 90 pitches.
John: Like the worst Cinderella ever.
Kyle: I wonder what kind of drop a pumpkin gets on a change-up... let's ask Dennis Reyes.
John: He's the font of culinary knowledge.
Kyle: I want to see an all-singles ten run rally next inning for the Twins. I'm going to cue up some Benny Hill music in advance.
John: That should only require about three trips through the order, right?

BOTTOM OF SEVENTH
Twins 3, White Sox 6

Kyle: Rincon wishes he was on the juice with Jerry Owens at the plate. I don't understand why Gardenhire isn't putting him on. There's no point in taking these senseless risks.
John: He's liable to launch a 16-run homer at the drop of a hat.
[Owens grounds out to second.]
Kyle: Fortunately for Gardenhire, Rincon beats the odds and Owens grounds out.
John: I pity the bullpen catcher that has to warm up Neshek.
[Iguchi strikes out swinging.]
Kyle: No way, that guy has the best gig on Earth. It's like third string quarterback, but you don't ever have to worry about winding up in a game gone horribly wrong.
[Thome singles to center.]
Kyle: Thome with his second single. I bet Morneau holds him really close.
John: Thome's 4000th career hit against the Twins. Congrats, Jim!
[Neshek relieves Rincon.]
Kyle: I'd like to send out a thank you to Ron Gardenhire for letting me get my Neshek fix in, as despite the best efforts of the Twins Blogsphere, Deadspin, and a few others, he won't be pitching in and blogging about the all-star game.
John: Humanity has suffered a great loss.
Kyle: It has been said that democracy gives the people what they want, good and hard.
[Konerko strikes out swinging.]
Kyle: I can't fathom why everyone wouldn't want to see the nutty sidearm antics of Pat Neshek in what has become an increasingly boring string of all-star games.
John: He should pitch the Home Run Derby. To everyone. Neshek strikes me as the kind of guy who calls everyone "dude."
Kyle: With Neshek, I'm thinking it's more "dood".
John: Good point. d00d.

TOP OF THE EIGHTH
Twins 3, White Sox 6

Kyle: I promise to knock back an Alou for every run the Twins score this inning. I figure, what the hell, I'm only six feet from my bathroom right now.
John: I don't think you'll have too much trouble meeting that goal.
Kyle: Bartlett, Mauer and Cuddyer due up. Six outs left for the Twins. Vazquez being left in.
[Bartlett singles to third.]
Kyle: Nice leather from Fields, and a smart decision to put the ball in his pocket.
John: I saw a replay of Pedro Martinez's meltdown in the 2003 ALCS the other day--I'm feeling lucky today.
Kyle: Now begins the reign of singles. Assuming the umpire contains his strike zone to three feet on either side of the plate...
[Mauer pops out to second.]
John: Getting a few guys on base for Morneau wouldn't hurt.
Kyle: I will say this for Vazquez, his slider has been on today. Cuddyer wasn't even close on that last whiff.
John: That last ball was closer than the third strike to Mauer in the 5th.
Kyle: Wow, I can't believe the ump didn't ring Cuddyer up on that 0-2 fastball just feet off the plate.
[Cuddyer grounds into a 6-4-3 double play.]
Kyle: Wish he had though... GIDP.
John: Ack. Well, I'm all for extra degree of difficulty.
Kyle: It's what the Twins roster construction is all about.

BOTTOM OF THE EIGHTH
Twins 3, White Sox 6

[Reyes relieves Neshek.]
Kyle: Big Sweat!
John: I would hate to be anywhere near him in this heat.
Kyle: "Reyes has spent some time on the disabled list with an inflamed shoulder." How could the Twins medical staff tell?
John: He was slower getting through the buffet.
Kyle: Only carried two plates with that arm.
[Pierzynski strikes out swinging.]
Kyle: Strikeout to start the inning.
[Fields flies out to deep right center.]
[Mackowiak grounds out to short.]
Kyle: One-two-three inning for Brunswick.
John: The stage is set!
Kyle: Down to the final three outs. Can we get a pinch umpire behind the plate?

TOP OF THE NINTH
Twins 3, White Sox 6

Kyle: Any chance Jon Garland or Gavin Floyd will be out to finish the game?
John: I'll put in a call to Ozzie and see what I can do.
Kyle: Make sure to drop two-dozen expletives. He'll respond better.
John: Vazquez coming back out?
Kyle: Nuts, although hopefully the Twins hitters are familiar with his stuff by the ninth.
[Morneau pops out to shallow left.]
Kyle: Okay, down to a pair of outs. This just makes the comeback all the more thrilling, right?
John: Of course.
[FSN airs a breif interview with Hunter about his odds of robbing another Bonds homerun in the coming All-Star Game.]
Kyle: Did Hunter just drop a "psyche" ?
John: I'm a little freaked out right now.
Kyle: He's got a neon green Hypercolor tee-shirt and a fanny pack waiting for him back in his locker.
John: The poll on ESPN.com asking who will win the Home Run Derby does not include Morneau as a choice.
Kyle: That's probably a good thing from the people that brought you the productive outs and "player rating" metrics.
[Hunter strikes out swinging.]
John: Whee, final out! Where's the rally monkey?
Kyle: Somewhere in Anaheim. 0-2 to Kubel. The Twins want to get out of town as much as the umpire.
[Kubel strikes out swinging.]
Kyle: And that does it for the Twins.
John: Well then. Can we borrow a few extra runs from Friday?
Kyle: Or count Morneau's homeruns from tomorrow?
John: If ESPN allows him to show up, I guess.
Kyle: Morneau is one of the plaintiffs in the Woody Page sexual harassment suit.
John: Eeek!
Kyle: I think it was Kubel that got groped by Harold Reynolds, though.
John: You gotta be careful on those trips to Boston Market.
Kyle: Buerhle signs a four year extension with the Sox. Let's hope it's for a payroll-crippling sum of money.

FINAL
Twins 3, White Sox 6

The Northwoods Beat: At the Half

2007-07-08T14:56:00.000-07:00

The first half of the Northwoods League baseball season has come to a close and two teams have secured their places in the playoffs. The NW League crowns first half winners, giving them a post-season berth, and then lets the other teams duke it out for the second half. This season, the first half ends with a taste of the old and the new. The St. Cloud Riverbats, a franchise in it's 11th season and two time league champion, narrowly overcame the Duluth Huskies to come out on top in the North Division. The Green Bay Bullfrogs, a first-year expansion franchise, surprised everyone with a very strong first half and the South Division title. During their first half run the Bullfrogs put together a 15-game winning streak.

This Wednesday the league will celebrates its rising stars in the 13th Northwoods League All-Star Game at Franklin Rogers Park in Mankato, MN. The two-day event includes an All-Star banquet on Tuesday night with a special appearance by Twins GM, Terry Ryan as well as a home run derby on Wednesday before the game. Last year's event in La Crosse, WI was a very close game with a lot of entertaining surprises like an impromptu dance-off between the competing dugouts.

The La Crosse Loggers (2nd place in the South) have the most players in this years All-Star game with seven representatives. Darian Ruf (Wisconsin Woodchucks), Eric Thames (La Crosse Loggers) have been two of the league's most consistent hitters while Danny Meier (Green Bay) was the first half's premier slugger with 6 home runs and 24 rbi. St. Cloud's Buddy Baumann stands out among pitchers with 5 wins (tied for 1st) and 40 strikeouts (tied for 4th).

The Northwoods League is a chance for elite collegiate players to gain exposure as well as wood bat experience during their summer. As the season progresses we'll likely see the hitting start to catch up with the pitching.

No Complaints

2007-07-03T18:11:00.000-07:00

Arguing about the All-Star game is a summer tradition rivaling (surpassing?) the game itself. In fact, the word “snub” was coined just hours after the announcement of the first All-Star teams.[1] In the summer doldrums, the All-Star game single-handedly keeps sports talk radio alive for an entire ten days. Unfortunately, those of us looking forward to increased levels of ire this year have been sorely disappointed. The hard truth is, the fans, players, and coaches charged with picking the teams did a pretty decent job.

Usually, the players chosen to fill baseball’s one-player-per-team rule are the obvious targets for dispute, stealing spots from more deserving players on well-represented teams. This year’s crop of only-one players is pretty solid, though. Barry Bonds made it from the Giants; Ken Griffey represents the Reds. Bobby Jenks from the White Sox is a little bit shaky, but that team is in such disarray that any choice would have left us wanting. Even the Royals’ rep, starter Gil Meche, has a line that won’t make anyone cringe.

I was watching the Baseball Tonight guys during their ASG-reaction show, and their desperation told the story. Kruk and whoever the other guy is now were trying to make an argument for Sammy Sosa from the Rangers, because he has a pretty RBI total. That whole team is a mess, but Michael Young is as good a choice as any, and he doesn’t take a spot from any obvious middle infielder except perhaps Orlando Cabrera. No crime was committed there.

Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus makes a solid point here (subscription required, I believe), pointing out that Freddy Sanchez, the Pirates’ representative, could have been left off for a member of their bullpen, meaning Jose Valverde could stay home and Hanley Ramirez from Florida could find a spot. That would have improved things, for sure; Ramirez is one of the great young players in the game. Unfortunately, the NL team is carrying four first basemen (SteakGrowsOnDmitri comes from Washington, and Tony La Russa wisely added Albert Pujols to the roster), which squeezes the middle infield spots a bit. I’m a big fan of Ramirez, but won’t lose any sleep over it; he’ll have plenty of appearances under his belt before he’s through.

I guess we’ll just have to enjoy Morneau at the Home-Run Derby, with nothing to complain about.
[1] Possibly untrue.

Twin City Minute: Playoff Chances

2007-06-28T08:21:00.000-07:00

Forgive me for refraining from the topic du jour. Like a ninny, I'll be sitting through a 2.5 hour class during this much-anticipated NBA draft. Instead, I want to build on T-Bird's sentiments about another Twins postseason run.

As of June 28, the club sits 6 games back, 5.5 in the Wild Card. Assume the Wild Card stays in the Central again. An entire half of baseball remains, including 25 games versus Detroit (12) and Cleveland (13). Additionally, the Tigers and Indians play each other 11 times. Plenty of ground to be made, but traditional optimism is wavering. As much as I want to think it will happen, the chips are stacking up against Minnesota's Little Team That Could.

The Tigers' potent lineup features MVP-bound Magglio and the frightening Gary Sheffield. Kenny Rogers' return adds to an already solid rotation. A disastrous bullpen limits them, but that's what deadline trades are for. The Indians boast good bats, but have gotten this far without Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner playing to their potential. Expect a second half surge. Cy Young-apparent CC Sabathia holds down a capable, yet culpable staff. Cleveland seems to be the smaller hill to climb, but the Twins have yet to beat the Tribe this year (0-5), outscored 36-14.

Blog in 60 Seconds: I'll Take Ndudi Ebi

2007-06-27T16:23:00.000-07:00

A public service announcement: the NBA Draft is today (Thursday). It doesn’t matter if you don’t care about basketball and can’t tell Yi Jianlian from Jackie Chan. The NBA has far and away the most entertaining and watchable draft of any sport.

The Draft doesn’t drag on like the NFL or the MLB; picks come rolling in at a rapid pace, and the whole thing is done in two rounds. It’s the single biggest business day of the year for every Big & Tall menswear store in the country, like Christmas plus Valentine’s Day, with guys that are 6-10. Plus, they all shake hands with David Stern, who can’t be an inch taller that 4-7.

The NBA Draft always has the best storylines. This year, there’s the excitement over Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, two transcendent talents. But the fun keeps going after the first two picks—just this year, we’ve got the foreign import (Jianlian) with the government (China) trying to manipulate where he ends up. There are sleepers who got kicked off their college team (Sean Williams). There are two-time college champs (the Florida guys). It’s probably my favorite sporting event; I know what I’ll be doing tonight.

Going for Broke

2007-06-27T13:05:00.000-07:00

REPORT: The Timberwolves are on the verge of trading Kevin Garnett to the Phoenix Suns in a three-way deal that would land the Wolves the #3 and #11 pick, along with F/C Zaza Pachulia, presently of the Hawks.

As you know, yours truly has been awfully hard on Kevin McHale -- as recently as yesterday I said his tenure as GM has landed poor draft picks, poorer free agents, and hardly a single trade of note.

That could all change VERY quickly. If the Wolves pull the trigger on this deal, one that would send Amare Stoudamire to Atlanta for the bevy of picks headed to Minnesota, tomorrow evening would become Kevin McHale's new signature moment. He made his mark early in his career as a GM by signing the first high schooler since Moses Malone and that player has become the face of a franchise, earning MVP honors along the way. But this would give McHale and the Wolves three picks in the top 11 of what is seen as the deepest draft in many a year. In fact, if you rule out the first two obvious picks of Greg Oden and Kevin Durant, it in fact gives them three of the "first" nine picks on what would still remain a deep pool of talent. This team would be young, and three years from now will be one hell of a negotiation session to resign everyone, but, if done right, they could cement their spot as a young, talented team for years to come.

Just count on one thing NOT happening, and that's drafting Chinese 7-footer Yi Jianlian with that third pick. Yi has indicated, with the backing of the Chinese government, that he will not go to anything other than a major market. How can the Chinese government back him, you ask? They are his employer -- if he doesn't go to the team that drafts him, they pay him for one more year and he goes back into the draft as a potential number one pick just months before the Beijing Olympics. They can do that -- therefore, despite the lure of selling 1 billion t-shirts, he won't be a Wolves' player next year.

So, that means either Al Horford of Florida or Mike Conley, Jr. of Ohio State with the third pick and likely Jeff Green of Georgetown or Joakim Noah, also of Florida, with the seventh. Frankly, although they project to the same position in the NBA, something has me drooling about the possibility of keeping two players who earned back to back national championships (Horford and Noah) together and adding a third SF/SG type (Corey Brewer, a third Gator, for example) with pick #11. Add a young player in Pachulia who can shoot and rebound and continues to develop (offensively, at least), match them up with the talent of Randy Foye, and although it begs the what-if questions for Mark Blount and Craig Smith if they do draft big, and... well... let's just say McHale is making or breaking his career in just two days.

It's not just better than nothing. It's three lottery picks and the start of a brand new era, for better or worse.

Sosa and Bonds Can Still Impress

2007-06-26T20:18:00.000-07:00

Last week Sammy Sosa became the fifth played in baseball history to hit 600 homeruns; Barry Bonds is less than 10 homeruns from breaking the most prestigious record in all of sports. In the last decade, their images have been tainted by juice and corked bats. Many have lost respect for Bonds and had barely a shred of respect left for Sosa—until Wednesday. Hearing the Rangers’ announcer call the homerun with stroke-inducing excitement gave me goose bumps that were beyond my control. At that moment, a quote from the movie Fever Pitch came to mind: “You can have a lucky season, but you can’t have a lucky career.”

An impressive handful of players have hit 500+ homeruns, but get to number 586 and the number drops significantly to an awe-inspiring five players (which will grow over these next years). So a small part of me admits—hesitantly—that to hit the ball so hard for so long cannot be summed up by steroids or other elements. These two record-chasing men may have used outside help along the way, which should not be condoned, but there is still a great deal of real talent and commitment buried in their numbers.

Gardy's Deadly Sin: Loyalty

2007-06-26T19:06:00.001-07:00

For years now, the Twins' bullpen has been the absolute bedrock of the pitching staff and, quite frankly, the envy of many other teams in baseball -- especially small market teams who overpay on the open market for bullpen help while the Twins continue to raise their own and supplement with the odd free agent gem unearthed by Terry Ryan.

So why then, after pitching seven glorious innings, does the team fail to warm up a couple of relievers (presumably one from each side) the absolute second that Jason Kubel's ball hits the turf in right field, scoring Michael Cuddyer and the go-ahead run. You can talk 'til you're blue in the face about how Reyes, Guerrier, and Rincon all pitched the night before -- that doesn't stop the fact that both Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan, the two best relievers on the team in 2007, did NOT and should be all that was needed for the eighth and ninth innings, respectively.

Instead, the Twins go blindly forth into the eighth, without even the possibility of a change, with a starting pitcher who's pitching his first quality start in ten starts, is in the 90's on pitch count, and, despite striking out nine in the game, had not fooled any of the previous eight hitters -- relying on defense and some poor situational hitting by the Jays to get through the seventh unscathed.

Many teams in baseball go by the theory of not letting a young pitcher lose a ballgame once you've put him in a position to win. For Ron Gardenhire, and I believe this is part of his being such a "player's manager," it's about letting a young man go out there and finish what he started. It is my firm belief that if Gardy managed in a larger media market, where the pressure to sell papers turns beatwriters into something you hide the kids from, he wouldn't hear the end of his failure to utilize one of the Twins' greatest assets when the time is absolutely ripe. I know the Twins have fifteen games in fourteen days, but how likely is it that the game tomorrow will be tied or within a run in the eighth inning -- just look at how many games Nathan has pitched this season and you'll understand that you need to use your strength when you need it and not save it for the rainy day that might never come.

As it is, the Jays scored a run and tied the game because Baker was left out there and the Twins' ended up having to pitch in extra innings -- thereby putting more stress on the bullpen. Funny how that works.

Bloggers Minute: Skepticism of the Ostrich

2007-06-26T10:07:00.000-07:00

Early Tuesday morning, Wolves GM Kevin McHale indicated that he was "not thrilled" about the idea of receiving Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom for 10-time NBA All-Star Kevin Garnett.

Phew. I was worried there for a minute.

And now I am again. You see, McHale should not have been thrilled about nearly every trade or free agent move he's made in his career. His trades have exposed his longtime obsession with Ricky Davis as well as his subpar talent evaluation skills -- you know Marko Jaric is better value than Sam Cassell (did I mention that Cassell's Clippers nearly made the playoffs this year?) and Terrell Brandon is a franchise point guard, right? His free agent moves include use of the mid-level exception (which makes or breaks many an NBA team) on studs like Michael Olowokandi and Troy Hudson (who did indeed have his fifteen er... five minutes of fame), as well as other signings like Eddie Griffin or Anthony Carter. His draft picks? Two all-stars, Szczerbiak and the Big Ticket -- in 12 years.

So, with all that in mind, I damned well hope McHale is sick to his stomach about unloading Garnett for something other than a lottery pick -- this team is young, this team has some talent, and it does not need another malcontented journeyman like Odom joining the fray. That team already exists, it's called the Boston Celtics. Hmm... Maybe that explains it.